Topic: So, nobody really gives a crap? - page 3. (Read 5550 times)

China news has already been priced in. If enough people are expecting a drop on the 31st, it won't actually happen.

I guess people who were going to sell based on the CHina news have already sold.  Sure more CHinese will sell but other countries are there to scoop it up.  China is only 1 country, although maybe they caused the rise in price, it doesn't mean if they leave the price has to drop.  They got people used to the higher prices now maybe.

Reads like the last words from a death row inmate...

This seems to have been ignored in many places, but has some current info directly from them if anyone missed it:

https://vip.btcchina.com/page/notice20140108

Deposit weren't stopped on all Chinese exchanges contrary to what the news say.

You still can buy and sell BTC for Yuan in China, you still can afford things and services with BTC, it is legal, no problem. Only the bank transfers to exchange are stopped. You can use service like localbitcoin because fuck the exchanges, Bitcoin doesn't need them to exist.

In countries where transfer between bank and exchange are forbidden, Bitcoin value is 15 to 30 % higher (Brazil, Argentina,...).

Every time mainstream media talk about Bitcoin, it increase its adoption.

The reason why Bitcoin is still low is because most big holder are shorting BTC to get more but it doesn't matter, BTC will not stop increasing on the long term.



Never overestimate governments. Ultimately, the power is in the hands of people. No Empire/Kingdom/Government ever survived through time.

+1 million.

Firstly: never underestimate governments.  Bitcoin only works if fiat can roll in and out freely.  If there is potential to lose the money you put in or take out, expect people to run and not look back.  People buy Bitcoins to make money on those Bitcoins.  If the US government destroys exchanges and drives trading into the depths of the web, Bitcoin will only have use for illicit / gray market activity.  It may survive, but only as an extremely niche wealth transfer method.

I am not saying it will happen anytime soon, or at all really.  But don't be so obtuse.

Now, as for the China thing, you seem to be way out of the loop.  China volume dwarfs all other countries right now.  They are by far the primary players on the Bitcoin markets.  And to say they can trade with individuals, and not exchanges, is currently incorrect.  If this ends up being the case in the future, say goodbye to about 60% of total bitcoin trading volume.  

China banning exchanges is not "priced in".  Hell, the country announced the removal of Taobao BTCC vouchers two days ago, and the market dropped over 20%.  BTC China volumes aren't even 10% of Huobi.  So, if China decides to give the boot, it's a very big deal.

Gone in mainland China? It's quite possible, though exchanges might lumber on in a zombified form for a while unless they're properly put out of their misery. It's a part of the ongoing story on a march upwards, albeit a big and disruptive part at this particular moment as so many others have been.

The rest of the world's looking pretty rosy. Singapore, one of THE global finance hubs, has made sensible noises about taxation. Merchants are being added every day around the globe. Some ground breaking infrastructure is being developed by thousands of very bright minds as I type.

Decide what's best for you and run with it.

Well, it can't be long until it makes PUUUFFF - and all is gone...

There hasn't been a definitive answer so far, if that's even remotely possible, so the odds are there won't be one at all.

If it bothers you so then sell up and wait for the dust to settle. It might be a while yet.  

LOOOOL. WTF?  I need to ask again. Does anyone have insights on BTCChina? The whole exchange has become a fucking joke. Seems like they are done already. Only keeping it "alive" with some fake trades obviously.

I bet a single big player could easily bring the BTCChina rate down to 0.

Do you have any proof for that? And why would the Chinese Government do that in the first place?

Absurd...really? China is buying all btc...

BTCChina is #1

I also think that this is pretty absurd.

Besides, is BTCChina already dead? I never have seen such ridiculously low orders.

Not sure "sensational" is the word I would use for that idea

that is an absurd idea.  there is NO govt that is investing in bitcoin directly.  what the most totalitarian major power that is known to control every facet of their citizen's lives just decides to invest in bitcoin.  bitcoin is designed for decentralization and to give power to the people, it's users.  makes no sense.



it's also the first week of the new year since the holidays.  the Taobao ban is not in effect until the 14th, next tuesday.  i believe that china will crush the huobi bitcoin exchange for their defiance of authority.  the ceo publicly stated that he believed bitcoin does not fall under financial regulation.  it's like he's telling the govt to fuck off.

the legality in america isn't for sure either.  http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2014/01/stampact/

Governments can threaten all they like and pass laws against Bitcoin but the fact is the only way they're going to kill Bitcoin is by killing off the internet as well and that would piss off too many people, that's why people don't care, plus the Chinese hysteria was pretty fake, you can still trade Bitcoins as individuals for paper money just not exchanges and financial companies.

It's the same thing where a fake post about the Thailand central bank panicked people who didn't know anything and it managed to scare people with big holdings in Bitcoin.

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.

This is why when some above have said "the government aren't that stupid, these remaining exchanges have their days numbered", maybe they have allowed them to continue trading because they don't want to destroy bitcoin, rather play with its price for gains/further understanding of the market and the demographics of its users.

Yeah, very good points there, R2P. And you raised the very essential question WHY they did not stop them, yet(?).

There could be several reasons for that, but I guess it just doesn't make too much sense to speculate at this point. What I certainly believe though is that they will shut those alternatives down by January 31st. I mean their intention is obvious. They do not want CNY being traded for BTC, because the coins then can be used as a tool to export LOTS of Chinese money/capital which is basically illegal, or better said restricted/controlled, in China (as far as I know).  Therefore, it would only be consequent to stop ANY possible method. Otherwise, it would be a proper surprise.

We'll see

China never announced it was shutting down all bitcoin business.  You will not find anything which supports this statement.  They specifically said that Bitcoin was being treated as a commodity, and therefore is currently legal to trade.

The method Huobi and other exchanges are using for deposit is direct bank transfer to the owner.  The question here is: Did these exchanges receive permission from the government to conduct business in this fashion?  At first, I figured the answer to this question was likely "no".  This seems to be the most sensible response.

However, at this point it is no longer clear.  Huobi has been operating with bank card deposit since Dec 20th.  This are over 20 days of really high volumes, and in plain view.  If what they were doing was illegal, or the government perceived it to be, why hasn't it been stopped?  One thing we have noticed recently is China's quickness to act.  One day after posting a Jan 31 deadline for third party payment processors, they came in and forced them off exchanges immediately.

It would be just as easy for them to come in and yank the cord on bank card transfer.  Close + freeze all the CEO's bank accounts (which are extremely easy to find, I could get their bank information myself if I wanted to), and post a warning to exchanges that any further use of bank card deposit will have legal repercussions.  Boom, bank card deposit is gone, basically permanently.  This also prevents the price being run up based on Chinese volume, which the government has cautioned against.

So, I believe if their current intention was to end all exchanges, it would be done.  Make no mistake, bank card deposit is essentially the final frontier for Chinese exchanges.  Without bank card deposit, and third party payment processors banned, there is no way to electronically fund an exchange.  If this happens, assume that Chinese exchanges are dead.

Right now I am leaning towards believing that China has met privately with these exchanges, and given the go-ahead.  However, it's also very possible that these exchanges have gone ahead without government approval.  There was certainly no explicit endorsement of their practices.  It's all up in the air right now.  But once again, it has nothing to do with the deadline.