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Topic: So.. what the hell happened today? - page 2. (Read 4465 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:52:07 AM
#68
Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.

+1  Well said bitrider.  Well said.

"Oh yes..very well said indeed bitrider...put that MatTheCat noob right in his place. Well done, another caviar souffle?"

Last time I remember this much euphoria around here, it was early March and Bitcoin was hitting $710.

I am a fucking shite trader although having said that, over all I have still made money but I admit most money I made was in the later part of bull run. A market phase that any fkn halfwit can trade and win. Since Bitcoin has went into reversal, despite pretty accurately forecasting general trends, my absolutely shite trading skills has seen profits minimised with lots of stupid losses in between, and then this monumental loss today has certainly put me into net loss territory for the Jan 2014 - April 2014 period. I broke the adage I keep trying to imbue into myself but never seem to be able to stick to. NEVER TAKE A TRADE IN THE MIDDLE OF NO-MANS LAND! Right now, we are not in no-mans land. We are right on the verge of the long term downtrend with buying power surely exhausted (real Bitstamp USD buying power, not the fake Chinese volume that drove this price surge). A better medium term shorting opportunity as selling Bitcoin at $500 will not present itself in Bitcoin for some time, but I aint touching it. I have come to realise that as well as I can forecast general trends in Bitcoin from my armchair, there is something in my psychological make up that makes me a very poor trader. Even If I took the trade and won, I would end up with 25% of the profits on offer and then would be encouraged to make lots of other shitty little capital draining trades on the back of it. Too many times recently I am holding back when I should be going ahead with a trade, regretting it, and then diving in when I should really be sitting back. Indeed, the fact that my nerve broke right at $512 which is where I covered my shorts at is a sure sign for me that this was the top.

Anyhow, enjoy your brief moment in the sun you couple of fucking bampots. I will be back to taunt y'all when Bitcoin is in $200 range. If Bitcoin doesn't get here, then this will be the first time ever that I have been wrong with a downside target. Always a first time for everything though, eh?
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:48:48 AM
#67
Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  Grin

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

A typical mindless religious zealot Smiley Not actually debating the arguments or answering the questions, but instead desperately trying to insult the opponent Smiley

I have been following the news, and like I said, there are no news that would have an strong enough positive effect on the price.
And we confirm this by... *drums.....* ...by looking at the past price history and not seeing any sustainable positive effects on the price.  Grin


You guys are like characters from an absurd comedy!
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:40:09 AM
#66
Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  Grin

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
April 15, 2014, 10:31:35 AM
#65
Maybe Price breakout, back to 700
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:31:17 AM
#64
I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.

Then you're not paying attention, or you're not an alt-account and are actually a total bitcoin noob.  I'm going to default to the former.



Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:26:42 AM
#63
I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.

Then you're not paying attention, or you're not an alt-account and are actually a total bitcoin noob.  I'm going to default to the former.

legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:21:26 AM
#62
\ Because, remember, there hasn't been any news that would attract new fiat to enter the market. And without new fiat entering, the price won't be able to sustain itself for long.

Get out of this subreddit and start following the news channels.  There is a lot of positive progress going on and has been for some time. You're just caught up in the China noise.

I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:21:11 AM
#61
Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.

+1  Well said bitrider.  Well said.
full member
Activity: 233
Merit: 101
April 15, 2014, 10:11:45 AM
#60
Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 10:06:44 AM
#59
Precisely my point doughead. With increasing cracking down on Bitcoin transfers (money laundering, tax evasion) and Chinese Bandits (they are different from me in that they have means of cheating the market, I don't) wringing every last drop of blood out of naive speculators that they can get, Bitcoin has fuck all left going for it...except Silk Road which is next to nowt.

So a mechanic is a crook because he owns a tool box full of tools?   Bitcoin has a whole shit-tonne of things going for it, but you're too short sighted and blinded by greed to either a) be aware of it, or b) accept that there is more to bitcoin than this subreddits precious little exchange market.  You're acting like a child who fell down and scraped his knee.  Grow up.

Quote
That leaves Capital Flight.

One of many applications of bitcoin.

Quote
I will mind that door on the way out by I shall make a mental note to come and single you out for some brutal antagonism when Bitcoin is right down in that $200 range.

Please do, I welcome it.  

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
April 15, 2014, 10:01:37 AM
#58
PBOC says "you cannot pass", while they guard the entrance,,,
Exchanges says "we will enter through the window"  Grin Grin Grin

You guys think that would work? LOL
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 09:59:48 AM
#56
My idea for selling computation power on the other hand is to sell something with real value. There is a real need for generalized computation power and there will always be customers.

Thus my point, you don't know what you're talking about.  You don't fundamentally understand what mining is and why it's done the way it is.  You can't complete the task that mining currently provides through generalized computations. 
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 09:55:31 AM
#55



Isn't this the second time in one month that you've "had it" with Bitcoin?

Quote
  • Speculators (currently getting royally fucked with by Chinese Bitcoin Bandits)

Bandits? What are you on about? They're just "speculators" like yourself.  Maybe they've got bigger pockets, or enjoy a little more risk than you, but they're just the same.  How do you think all the people who aren't traders feel when people like you take out leveraged positions and fuck the market sideways for your own personal gain?  

Quote
  • Silk Road
This is such a ridiculously small part of the market now that the original Silk Road is done and gone, the successors have fucked their customers, and the market has fragmented into multiple sketchy sites.

Quote
The one thing I have left off that list is 'Capital Flight' from non USD hegemony compliant economies. Mark my fucking words, it will be from these situations that Bitcoin will experience real future inflations in value (after the Chinese are done playing their games), which was exactly the reason why the NSA floated Bitcoin out into the public arena through a libertarian back door in the first place. Bitcoin is not 'against The Man', it is by The Man and for The Man. If folks are thinking that the USD dominated fiat currency system is vaporous, they aint seen nothing yet!

I will take a much longer break from Bitcoin than 6 months. I have been against Bitcoin philosophically for some time but was addicted to trading it cos I was winning. Now that I am losing, I have no further interest in it. I will be back here to indulge in some empty gloating when Bitcoin hits $200 range like I said it would....and it will.

Uh-huh.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out.



Precisely my point doughead. With increasing cracking down on Bitcoin transfers (money laundering, tax evasion) and Chinese Bandits (they are different from me in that they have means of cheating the market, I don't) wringing every last drop of blood out of naive speculators that they can get, Bitcoin has fuck all left going for it...except Silk Road which is next to nowt.

That leaves Capital Flight.

I will mind that door on the way out by I shall make a mental note to come and single you out for some brutal antagonism when Bitcoin is right down in that $200 range.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
April 15, 2014, 09:49:36 AM
#53
wait til china announce another FUD within two weeks... ehhe  Grin Grin
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
April 15, 2014, 09:47:39 AM
#52
The whole way crypto mining is done is idiotic in my opinion. We have this massive amount of computation power doing basically nothing and fighting over a rapidly diminishing resource. The resource "BTC" happens to be totally worthless. At least a dollar bill is worth the paper it is printed on but BTC isn't even that. So we keep building ASICs which are more sophisticated; more powerful but no more productive because of the increased difficulty. It would make more sense if we had a network that sold real computation power. We could still get paid in crypto currency. Basically use the pools to sell computation power in return for payment in terms of BTC or other crypto currency. Might need to go beyond highly specialized ASICs but at least we'd be doing something useful and not require this arms race as you correctly noted.

Worth the paper it's printed on?  Guy, I throw dollar sized pieces of paper into the recycling bin all day.  By that measure it's worthless too.  That aside, the massive amount of computational power is what makes Bitcoin and the blockchain work.  It is what backs bitcoin.  Further, your thoughts about selling "real computation power" shows you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about.  

There is no reason to get emotional and start using swear words. Bitcoins are not backed by massive computation power; they are backed by demand. If people decided to pay nothing for them they will lose their value no matter how much computation power there is in all the ASICs in the world.

My idea for selling computation power on the other hand is to sell something with real value. There is a real need for generalized computation power and there will always be customers.



generalized computation power =/= ASICs, so while your idea has merit, it would never work. There's Folding@home and SETI@home projects if you want to donate your CPU cycles for something "good". They don't pay out though, which wouldn't interest most people here.

By the same reasoning, USD is backed by demand. If foreign countries and US citizens suddenly decided to not accept them for trade, they would lose their value no matter how much the government tries to bully everyone.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
April 15, 2014, 09:42:58 AM
#51
At this stage of the market, in August 2011, there was a rebound from about 6$ to 12$, so 100%, not just 50% like now.
Two months later (October 2011) it still dropped down to 2$. Let's wait and see where the price will be two months from now.
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
April 15, 2014, 09:41:26 AM
#50
The whole way crypto mining is done is idiotic in my opinion. We have this massive amount of computation power doing basically nothing and fighting over a rapidly diminishing resource. The resource "BTC" happens to be totally worthless. At least a dollar bill is worth the paper it is printed on but BTC isn't even that. So we keep building ASICs which are more sophisticated; more powerful but no more productive because of the increased difficulty. It would make more sense if we had a network that sold real computation power. We could still get paid in crypto currency. Basically use the pools to sell computation power in return for payment in terms of BTC or other crypto currency. Might need to go beyond highly specialized ASICs but at least we'd be doing something useful and not require this arms race as you correctly noted.

Worth the paper it's printed on?  Guy, I throw dollar sized pieces of paper into the recycling bin all day.  By that measure it's worthless too.  That aside, the massive amount of computational power is what makes Bitcoin and the blockchain work.  It is what backs bitcoin.  Further, your thoughts about selling "real computation power" shows you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about.  

There is no reason to get emotional and start using swear words. Bitcoins are not backed by massive computation power; they are backed by demand. If people decided to pay nothing for them they will lose their value no matter how much computation power there is in all the ASICs in the world.

My idea for selling computation power on the other hand is to sell something with real value. There is a real need for generalized computation power and there will always be customers.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
April 15, 2014, 09:40:23 AM
#49
I don't see how you say it is around 100 $. Are you adding the price of an ASIC or is it just the energy cost. I am talking about the cost of a new ASIC and the energy required to break even.

That's not a smart position to take as one should not include sunk costs in determining the cost per coin.  Cost per coin is tied to the difficulty, average power consumption of a mining machine, and the average power cost.

Quote
You are right about the difficulty going up which just proves my point. BTC mining is going to get even less profitable with the current parameters. Either the price has to go way up or ASIC and energy costs way down. Energy is not going to go down in cost. ASIC costs may but the pre-orders are already sold out so I don't see the prices going down soon. Therefore there is just one variable left and that is BTC price. If it goes up it will remain profitable; if not then any new ASIC purchase will be questionable at best.

Bitcoin mining profits have always trended towards zero, that's what they are supposed to do.  ASICS made mining insanely profitable.  As example, I had a fairly sizeable GPU farm that made $35 a day at its peak.  When I got my first ASIC I was mining $500 a day.  It's now in a gradual decline back to the end of the GPU days.  As to your last point, the purchase of mining hardware has been questionable for a number of months, but that won't stop the greed, and it won't stop the noob idiots.

Ultimately, the bottom line is that mining follows price, price does not follow mining.  Ask any longtime Bitcoiner and they'll tell you the same thing.
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