Topic: So when should you buy in. My thoughts from a long term bear. - page 2. (Read 2552 times)

$20 may have been reasonable before the halving but it is clear that the half was not factored in just like we are not buying now based upon the 2016 halving.

We should be in the $300 range.

they still haven't cracked the protocol.

what's all the fuss?

To the moon is what the majority believes in.

I was writing exactly what Seldar just said.

Let s think: there will only be 21 million BTC. At $20 each, market cap would be mere $420 million. Way to few to provide adequate market depth or to allow big sum business. At $10K USD per BTC we would have $210 billion. And $2.1 trillion at $100K each. Now that would be capable to sustain BTC as gross payment media.

So that s it. BTC MUST be a full success AND moon price to survive. Otherwise it will simply die. iMHO.

There are only two alternatives for BTC futur :
-moon if it's a success
-Mariana trench otherwise

In my opinion you have to look at bitcoin as any investment. You should really only expect to gain 5-10% a year.

When bitcoin bubbles and shoots really high, that is when you sell.

There are too many bitcoins available and the market is too liquid to support ATH's long term. They will eventually fall back down to a sustainable level.

Following bitcion from $10 in 2013, it should really have only grown to about $20 at this point. Being that it has grown faster because of all the media from the $1000 bubble, you have to factor in accelerated growth. That is why I value bitcoins somewhere between $20-$100.

What if bitcoin stays low like this forever and never goes back to ATH? 

Originally, when bitcoin declined from $30's to $2's, I really wasn't ready to start pouring money into it as the dropping seemed to be never ending.

Yeah, it is easy to say now, you didn't buy bitcoin at $2.00. Well, at that time you probably wouldn't either.

I decided at that time I would wait for a stable long term price to put my money in. My idea was that if the price would hold stable for at least a year and showed no signs of dropping, that was the best time to invest. This way you limit your losses.

Well, I purposely stopped watching bitcoin for a couple of years, because it was a waste of time to me to speculate. I then lost interest in it and didn't think much about bitcoin.

However, when the price rose to $1000, I was looking at the bitcoin price chart. It was clear that the best time to have bought bitcoin would have been around $10-13. This was a stable long term price where you could buy in and minimize your losses with possible sustainable growth.

So the question is, when should you buy in now?

If you want to minimize losses the best time to buy in is after the price is stable long term, like a year. This may be in the $20-$100 range in my opinion. But what ever it is, you're better off waiting for the price to stabilize long term.

Try and control urges to buy in at the bottom or trying to time your buys.