Selling at 600 isn't that bad at all !
I sold most of mine around 230 I think it was, didn't see this bubble happening.
Be happy you got out at 600, it's been 500-550 so hey it's easy to get make in and you made 10%+ profit.
Stop calling it a bubble :/ Years from now it will be clear that the blackboard guy was right all along. We are in the very early stages of an s-curve. There is no bubble, only a steep rise and then a plateau ahead.
I'm in the same boat with the OP, so here's where I am with it:
IF the price attacks that $778 Gox resistance point and cracks through, I will buy back in, and likely it will charge forward due to momentum (to 1k or more, who knows).
However, I don't see where the momentum is going to come from? Just the facts across distinct categories:
1) The news storm is drying up and everyone is back to (t)werk; (COMPOSITE DATA)
2) We are way ahead of the trend line (no matter how you slice it); here's one reasonable way--
--the 1 day chart shows Parabolic SARs are pushing us back down hard (PRICE DATA);
4) The ARMS Ease of Movement is heading back towards zero very quickly (above is bull, below bear) (VOLUME DATA);
5) Volatility is decreasing as we normalize (downwards-- and for the moment, gently) (VOLATILITY DATA)
6) The Senate hearing has clearly been priced in (perhaps this is more composite data, perhaps a BUSINESS FUNDAMENTAL (it's legal))
So, there you are. Set a bitcoinreminder for 790 and one for 600, and 500 and wait.
1. Nope. Its continuing. Maybe gaining momentum.
2. Yep. But not nearly as far past it as the bubble in 2011.
3. Just 1 signal among dozens. RSI for instance is very bullish.
4. Consolidating near highs. Exchanges evening out. Bullish news.
5. No way. New deposits tend to lag news by about 1-2 weeks.
We are going to have 1 more awesome, mind blowing leg up. We will consolidate and work our way through several layers of resistance to 1000 in the next handful of days. Then we will blow up through 1000 and China will race towards 10k CYN, or $1630. We might not make it there, but its going to be total chaos.
Hey windjc,
I like your posts, usually, but I'm trying to look at the data. So:
1) How do you figure the news storm is increasing? We were the #3 Google Hot Trend a couple of days ago, nothing greater since.
2) OK...
3) RSI is a trend indicator that shows both strength and weakness, depending on the window-- if it wasn't clear I'm looking at the 1 Day.
4) I'd like to have better data for volume-- definitely. I'm just looking at Gox for ARMS and then the total volume across as a number (useless?)
5) Deposits and news do not bear on volatility-- be careful to not take multiple signals from data sources you've factored.
HOWEVER: I sure hope you are right and we bust through to 790-800... because, THEN, we totally agree...
EDIT: The opportunity cost from buying in at 775 vs 800 is too great compared to the risk it slides downwards. The gains above 800, if we break through, will be worth the difference between 775 and 800. So, I stand by my 'wait and watch (carefully).'
2nd EDIT: Look at it this way, if it dives back to 350, the guy doubles his count. He should then cold store his coins, based on the fact that they will be worth 10-300K in several years. If not, and it goes up, he has a reminder to get in, in which case he should cold store his coins and multiply his count x 10-300K USD. You must think long term with this monster. (And, now, I'm talking to me.)