Solo mining lottery | Bitcointalksearch.org

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: alh on May 05, 2015, 01:53:07 PM

Quote from: trendax on May 05, 2015, 07:08:13 AM

Quote from: jonnybravo0311 on May 04, 2015, 09:13:37 AM

It's definitely not 1PH/s. You can solve the equation yourself and figure out how much hash you need to have in order to expect to find a block in a week:

Code:

47643398017 * 2^32 / hash rate = 604800
Hash rate = 338338023070975.95

So, you'd need to have about 338TH/s.

Thanks for the calculation. I really suspected this value to be much higher, I guess it's just bad luck when pools that have this value or more do struggle.

While I don't completely get the math, I do have to ask about the word "expect". Does that mean a 50/50 chance in the week? 95% chance, or what? We've obviously seen pools with 2+ PH that have gone 50 hours between blocks (i.e. bad luck). So it would seem that even with 500 TH you could easily go a week without hitting a block.

That's why I ask about your level of "expectation" in a week (i.e. confidence level).

50% chance, meaning that on average you will find one block per week if you have 338TH/s.

Of course with 500TH would would on average 1.47 blocks a week or a block every 4.7 days or so, but it wouldn't be outside the realms of possibility that you would go a week without mining a block, in fact it is more likely that you mining 2 blocks in 2 days..

northwesttactical

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The only little miner I have is an Antminer U2. I just point that to bitsolo.net for fun. I doubt I will ever find a block but, hey, never know if you don't try!

Mikestang

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Quote from: squall1066 on May 03, 2015, 08:33:20 AM

obviously those figures are useless as the last block is due to be mined at 2040 (ish?)

2140, off by 100 years.

kano

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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4

Quote from: trendax on April 30, 2015, 07:09:06 AM

I see lot's of people hashing at public solo pools, are any of you solo mining your own Bitcoin node?

While everyone should be running a node at home no matter what, there's the orphan risk issue of using it for solo.
Pools with fast hardware, high speed internet, relay connected, and lots of connections still get orphans.
You'd expect a lot higher % of orphans at home unless you setup your Bitcoin node as well as a pool does.

jonnybravo0311

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Mine at Jonny's Pool

Quote from: alh on May 05, 2015, 01:53:07 PM

Quote from: trendax on May 05, 2015, 07:08:13 AM

Quote from: jonnybravo0311 on May 04, 2015, 09:13:37 AM

It's definitely not 1PH/s. You can solve the equation yourself and figure out how much hash you need to have in order to expect to find a block in a week:

Code:

47643398017 * 2^32 / hash rate = 604800
Hash rate = 338338023070975.95

So, you'd need to have about 338TH/s.

Thanks for the calculation. I really suspected this value to be much higher, I guess it's just bad luck when pools that have this value or more do struggle.

While I don't completely get the math, I do have to ask about the word "expect". Does that mean a 50/50 chance in the week? 95% chance, or what? We've obviously seen pools with 2+ PH that have gone 50 hours between blocks (i.e. bad luck). So it would seem that even with 500 TH you could easily go a week without hitting a block.

That's why I ask about your level of "expectation" in a week (i.e. confidence level).

Let me try and help you with that. First, what do the numbers in my equation mean? Well, it's actually a simplified version (that's accurate enough for the purposes of figuring this out). Let me put in words what I wrote above in numbers:

Code:

Current Network Difficulty times a difficulty 1 share divided by your hash rate per second equals a week

In other words, since I know the current network difficulty, what a difficulty 1 share is worth (this is the approximation... I'll post the real values if you want) and how long I want to wait to find a block, I can calculate how much hash power I would need to find a block in that time frame.

So why do I keep using the word "expect"? Because it's probability. As you noted, just because the formula says you should find a block in the given timeframe, there's absolutely no guarantee that you will. In fact, there are formulas for that as well. Take a look at CDF (cumulative distribution function). The CDF will tell us that 98% of all blocks will be found at under 400% luck, about 88% of blocks will be found at under 200% luck. 100% luck is around 64% or so.

So, is 64% the confidence level? It's just another way to express the probabilistic data. Just like a pool with 500TH/s could easily go for a week without hitting a block, so too could that pool hit 2 blocks seconds apart.

alh

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Activity: 1846

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Quote from: trendax on May 05, 2015, 07:08:13 AM

Quote from: jonnybravo0311 on May 04, 2015, 09:13:37 AM

It's definitely not 1PH/s. You can solve the equation yourself and figure out how much hash you need to have in order to expect to find a block in a week:

Code:

47643398017 * 2^32 / hash rate = 604800
Hash rate = 338338023070975.95

So, you'd need to have about 338TH/s.

Thanks for the calculation. I really suspected this value to be much higher, I guess it's just bad luck when pools that have this value or more do struggle.

While I don't completely get the math, I do have to ask about the word "expect". Does that mean a 50/50 chance in the week? 95% chance, or what? We've obviously seen pools with 2+ PH that have gone 50 hours between blocks (i.e. bad luck). So it would seem that even with 500 TH you could easily go a week without hitting a block.

That's why I ask about your level of "expectation" in a week (i.e. confidence level).

trendax

full member

Activity: 124

Merit: 100

Quote from: jonnybravo0311 on May 04, 2015, 09:13:37 AM

It's definitely not 1PH/s. You can solve the equation yourself and figure out how much hash you need to have in order to expect to find a block in a week:

Code:

47643398017 * 2^32 / hash rate = 604800
Hash rate = 338338023070975.95

So, you'd need to have about 338TH/s.

Thanks for the calculation. I really suspected this value to be much higher, I guess it's just bad luck when pools that have this value or more do struggle.

jonnybravo0311

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Activity: 1344

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Mine at Jonny's Pool

Quote from: Mikestang on May 04, 2015, 12:07:44 PM

I wasn't even thinking about electrical service, just the practicality of where to put all the hardware. But the two are pretty much the same thing for the home miner, since you'll reach the limits of home space about the time you reach the limits of your electrical service.

I don't know about that... I could stack quite a few miners in my basement/garage if I had the power available

. Last year I tried to convince the little lady to let me call an electrician and have some wiring done... I really wanted to throw a rack of SP3Xs in the garage. She told me I was nuts. So, I stuck with the smaller equipment running on the standard household service. I think she was just a little put off at the noise... that SP10 I had screamed.

Mikestang

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I wasn't even thinking about electrical service, just the practicality of where to put all the hardware. But the two are pretty much the same thing for the home miner, since you'll reach the limits of home space about the time you reach the limits of your electrical service.

jonnybravo0311

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Mine at Jonny's Pool

Quote from: Mikestang on May 04, 2015, 11:35:05 AM

Yup. With the current hardware I would say the upper limit of a "home setup" would be about 10TH/s, where 1TH/s would be an average home setup. My little mine pumps out 0.8TH/s. Cheesy

It really depends on your home's service. Somebody with a few 240V30A breakers could drive a lot more hash than somebody who only has 120V15A circuits. In the US at least, the vast majority of homes aren't going to have those 240V circuits, or if they do, they're already being utilized for things like the electric dryer, range and central AC. Good luck convincing the significant other that you're going to get rid of those appliances to mine BTC

.

I have 8 S3s, totaling about 3.65TH/s. If I were to replace them with S5s, I'd end up with about 5.75TH/s for just about the same power usage.

Mikestang

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Yup. With the current hardware I would say the upper limit of a "home setup" would be about 10TH/s, where 1TH/s would be an average home setup. My little mine pumps out 0.8TH/s. Cheesy

Mt. Gox

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Quote from: Mikestang on May 04, 2015, 11:10:24 AM

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a "home setup" pumping out over 300TH/s.

This. To put it into perspective, a single current gen miner such as the Antminer S5 can pump out slightly over 1 TH/s. In order to get 300 TH/s, you would need a mining farm with almost 300 of these miners.

Mikestang

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You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a "home setup" pumping out over 300TH/s.

jonnybravo0311

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Mine at Jonny's Pool

Quote from: koelen3 on May 04, 2015, 05:33:00 AM

Quote from: trendax on May 04, 2015, 05:04:26 AM

Quote from: koelen3 on May 03, 2015, 08:37:28 AM

That sounds good actually, because small miners hardly count unless you put them on rent on some site.
I was thinking to give some time to mining(Solo mining) , what do you think would be the correct Hash Power i will need to find a block let's say in a week ?

I believe you need to have around 0.3% of the network to get a block a week. 1PH.

1 PH

That sounds too much Cheesy

Thanks anyway

It's definitely not 1PH/s. You can solve the equation yourself and figure out how much hash you need to have in order to expect to find a block in a week:

Code:

47643398017 * 2^32 / hash rate = 604800
Hash rate = 338338023070975.95

So, you'd need to have about 338TH/s.

koelen3

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Activity: 1022

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Sooner or later, a man who wears two faces forgets

Quote from: trendax on May 04, 2015, 05:04:26 AM

Quote from: koelen3 on May 03, 2015, 08:37:28 AM

That sounds good actually, because small miners hardly count unless you put them on rent on some site.
I was thinking to give some time to mining(Solo mining) , what do you think would be the correct Hash Power i will need to find a block let's say in a week ?

I believe you need to have around 0.3% of the network to get a block a week. 1PH.

1 PH

That sounds too much Cheesy

Thanks anyway

trendax

full member

Activity: 124

Merit: 100

Quote from: koelen3 on May 03, 2015, 08:37:28 AM

That sounds good actually, because small miners hardly count unless you put them on rent on some site.
I was thinking to give some time to mining(Solo mining) , what do you think would be the correct Hash Power i will need to find a block let's say in a week ?

I believe you need to have around 0.3% of the network to get a block a week. 1PH.

crazyearner

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solo mining with equipment hmm interesting thought but to be honest would waste more energy and power than finding a block with minamul equipment for mining. Done for other alts in past but BTC mehh leave on never come back would be like million to 1 odds if mining a block would be nice tho to solo mine generate blck. If got free energy then no harm in leaving on and maybe finding some random block.

koelen3

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Activity: 1022

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Sooner or later, a man who wears two faces forgets

That sounds good actually, because small miners hardly count unless you put them on rent on some site.
I was thinking to give some time to mining(Solo mining) , what do you think would be the correct Hash Power i will need to find a block let's say in a week ?

squall1066

copper member

Activity: 2310

Merit: 1032

On the lower end of the spectrum, 100GHs on solo mining would be estimated at 64.5 years for a block and cost you $2354.25 to run Grin

obviously those figures are useless as the last block is due to be mined at 2040 (ish?) also assuming difficulty does not go up. LOL

Personally it's a gamble, I see it as that, I do not expect a return, i like to get the lottery ticket and I also from time to time buy a scratch card, I like a little dabble, I never spend more than I am willing to loose!

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

math is easy if your hash cost under current difficulty but is around 1th you are investing in a high risk high yield medium

if your hash cost is over current difficulty and is around 1th you are gambling ie you are at unfavorable odds.

so this adjustment 1 th earns 0.0105 so renting under that at say 0.101 is investing meaning odds are in your favor.

renting at 0.0106 means you are gambling meaning odds are against you.

if your gear pulls 1th and uses 1000watts at 10cents a kwatt you are just about break even so why not solo mine some of it.

Topic: Solo mining lottery (Read 3615 times)