the correct answer in my opinion is
1- [chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] = [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] = [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h]
because it takes into account the shares submitted.
Topic: solomining probability calculator - page 2. (Read 333 times)
It's good that you started a new topic for what seemed to be a bit off-topic in the other thread, I don't think it was important to quote everything from that thread, it will be difficult for other members to follow the logic of the discussion.
I think it's better to sum up the whole thing in a single question.
When mining bitcoin within the same difficulty epoch, which one of the following is correct and why?
I think it's better to sum up the whole thing in a single question.
When mining bitcoin within the same difficulty epoch, which one of the following is correct and why?
Quote
1- [chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] = [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] = [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h]
Quote
2- [chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] > [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] > [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h]
Hello all,
The following post grew out of a discussion of another post. There the user akaki had criticized that in solomining one cannot simply multiply the calculated probability of a block hit per block average time of 10min with any desired time frame that would result in the probability e.g. for 1h, or a day, or a year. The user mikeywith has thankfully countered with very informative posts and explained the opposite. Since I wanted to dedicate myself to this topic intensively and learn more, I made a learning project out of it and wrote a Python program in parallel, which I constantly extended. This way I could try out different approaches and implement my learning into a working program right away.
At this point again a BIG THANKS to @mikeywith, who has really animated me to do this and has helped with his valuable explanations on.
I had already recommended the moderators to move the corresponding posts #46 - #56 to a new thread here in the technical forum, since this has become off-topic after all, but the mods probably haven't seen or wanted to implement that yet. I think it is appropriate to move the discussion here on technica part of the forum so that it is clear to everyone what it was actually about and on this way more information and a good discussion could follow.
All this resulted in the following python tool which I have uploaded to my repository [1] and would like to share with interested parties. I would like to add that I'm a complete Python beginner and still taking the first steps, so bear with me and correct me if you find any gross errors. I am also open to recommendations or constructive advice and will try to implement them in my free time. The goal is to learn and continue to have fun.
The "Solomining Probability Calculator" is a tool designed to assist solo miners in understanding their chances of successfully mining a block on the Bitcoin network. The program takes the user's hash rate as input, supporting various formats for ease of use. It also retrieves the current Bitcoin network difficulty which is then used to calculate a range of important mining metrics. These include the ratio of all hashes over the valid hashes, the probability of each single hash attempt, expected time to mine a block and the probability of successfully mining a block for various time frames. Additionally, the program offers helpful analogy and phrases to provide a better human-understanding of the probabilities, making it easier for users to interpret the results. With this tool, solo miners can gain valuable insights into their mining operations and make more informed decisions. Overall, the solomining probability calculator is a valuable tool for any solo miner looking to increase their chances of success in the competitive world of cryptocurrency mining.
If you like it and are interested, I could imagine to move the function to a website. This is because I have found that the solochance.com website that I am familiar with does not include current Difficulty values, and thus the calculations are not accurate when I compare them to others and my own calculations. I may be wrong, but I suspect that the relevant values like "difficulty" or "nbits" are not kept up to date there or may be manually entered by the operator from time to time. That would explain the deviation. For this reason, I was thinking about using my existing Python program as a basic framework to create a website with that functionality and output. I think I would have to rewrite that in JavaScript, which would be again (almost) new territory for me but if there is great interest then I would tackle that. Just let me know.
Have fun and a nice weekend.
citb0in
[1] https://github.com/citb0in/solomining_probability_calc
The following post grew out of a discussion of another post. There the user akaki had criticized that in solomining one cannot simply multiply the calculated probability of a block hit per block average time of 10min with any desired time frame that would result in the probability e.g. for 1h, or a day, or a year. The user mikeywith has thankfully countered with very informative posts and explained the opposite. Since I wanted to dedicate myself to this topic intensively and learn more, I made a learning project out of it and wrote a Python program in parallel, which I constantly extended. This way I could try out different approaches and implement my learning into a working program right away.
At this point again a BIG THANKS to @mikeywith, who has really animated me to do this and has helped with his valuable explanations on.
I had already recommended the moderators to move the corresponding posts #46 - #56 to a new thread here in the technical forum, since this has become off-topic after all, but the mods probably haven't seen or wanted to implement that yet. I think it is appropriate to move the discussion here on technica part of the forum so that it is clear to everyone what it was actually about and on this way more information and a good discussion could follow.
All this resulted in the following python tool which I have uploaded to my repository [1] and would like to share with interested parties. I would like to add that I'm a complete Python beginner and still taking the first steps, so bear with me and correct me if you find any gross errors. I am also open to recommendations or constructive advice and will try to implement them in my free time. The goal is to learn and continue to have fun.
The "Solomining Probability Calculator" is a tool designed to assist solo miners in understanding their chances of successfully mining a block on the Bitcoin network. The program takes the user's hash rate as input, supporting various formats for ease of use. It also retrieves the current Bitcoin network difficulty which is then used to calculate a range of important mining metrics. These include the ratio of all hashes over the valid hashes, the probability of each single hash attempt, expected time to mine a block and the probability of successfully mining a block for various time frames. Additionally, the program offers helpful analogy and phrases to provide a better human-understanding of the probabilities, making it easier for users to interpret the results. With this tool, solo miners can gain valuable insights into their mining operations and make more informed decisions. Overall, the solomining probability calculator is a valuable tool for any solo miner looking to increase their chances of success in the competitive world of cryptocurrency mining.
If you like it and are interested, I could imagine to move the function to a website. This is because I have found that the solochance.com website that I am familiar with does not include current Difficulty values, and thus the calculations are not accurate when I compare them to others and my own calculations. I may be wrong, but I suspect that the relevant values like "difficulty" or "nbits" are not kept up to date there or may be manually entered by the operator from time to time. That would explain the deviation. For this reason, I was thinking about using my existing Python program as a basic framework to create a website with that functionality and output. I think I would have to rewrite that in JavaScript, which would be again (almost) new territory for me but if there is great interest then I would tackle that. Just let me know.
Have fun and a nice weekend.
citb0in
[1] https://github.com/citb0in/solomining_probability_calc
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