That is not an accurate statement. Unless proper precautions are taken, a 0/unconfirmed race attack can be successful -- maybe 50% of the time even.
The precautions include configuring the client so that there are no incoming connections allowed and to explicitly have outgoing connections to the top miners.
How about we try it as a bet. You say it is 50% successful? Tell you what I will give you 10:1 odds. You should be 500% profitable then right? To break even you only need to be successful 10% of the time. How it works is you try to double spend me. If successful you keep the double spend and I pay you 10:1. If you fail i just keep the funds you failed trying with. You can name the stakes and time. You can keep sending me money until you want to quit or I lose 100 BTC. Let me know when you want to play.
I've actually been surprised that there haven't yet been reports of anyone in the marketplace forum or on the #bitcoin-otc marketplace losing their bitcoins received to a double spend race attack yet. It takes really no technical skill -- just use the same wallet in two places and try to spend from the same coin to two different addresses. Eventually one of those times the one seen by the recipient will differ from the one seen by the miner who eventually gets that block.
Um you don't think the buyer won't happen to notice the tx go INVALID as soon as his client sees both versions of the double spend?
To accomplish a double spend you can't just double spend you must
a) send tx A to victim (A)
b) send tx B to the the attacker (B).
c) complete the actual transaction (in person is going to take at least a minute or two)
c1) ensure that tx B is propogated to majority of pools.
c2) ensure that tx A isn't propogated to majority of pools.
c3) ensures that victim (A) doesn't see double spend B
e) get away with item of value before victim detects deception and stops tx.
It is possible and yes if you are moving 28 million dollars in bearer bonds you should wait for 6+ confirmations (maybe 144 confirmations) but there is a significant challenge to even a 0-confirm double spend and a face to face tx of low value is low risk from such a complex attack which requires nearly perfect timing.
There is a variation of the Finney Attack that could defraud just as easily with a 1-confirmation as with a 0/unconfirmed though the same recommendation above (to allow no incoming) prevents that variation from becoming successful as well.
-
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.463391A finney attack in person would require the attacker to
a) be able to generate blocks in very short time span "on demand" (i.e. like I said "massive amount of hashing power")
b) generate a block and hold it before the tx.
c) complete the tx (likely minutes)
d) broadcast the held block before the network finds another block.
Every 12 seconds the block is held the attacker loses 1 BTC in expected value (due to the chance of another block being found and broadcasted). Finney attack is useful against instant delivery high value irreversable online tx because the attack has a cost to the attacker which is directly related to length of time and value of the tx.
Even online one can greatly reduce the effectiveness by simply waiting. The attack has a cost to the attacker of roughly 1 BTC per 12 seconds. Finney attack is hardly applicable for a face to face meeting which may take minutes involving a small sum of money. Attacker's break even point is 5 BTC in value per minute elapsed between time block is created and held and time tx is completed.
Trying a Finney attack here means the most likely outcome is the attacker simply loses a block (and 50 BTC).