Topic: Some Statistics (Read 14237 times)

I moved and have reliable/stable Internet access again, thus http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin is available to those that asked about it (and to everyone else).

How did you compute that 2,000 number?  I'ld like to recalc it using the current difficulty.

I will be moving over next few days and nullvoid.org and bitbot may be unavailable during this period.  I will try to prepare availability as much as possible.

So there are about 2000 people generating coins. (1,5Mhash/s average and a 1Ghash/s cluster)

Ah, I see!  Simpler than I thought.
(difficulty * 2^32) is the odds of a hit on EACH try.
That's the 2.20e12 value again.

So total network power, in hash/sec, is then
(difficulty * 2^32) / 600

Where 600 is a smoothed approximation of last-block-interval-in-seconds.

Difficulty = 0xFFFF0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 / HashTarget

For easier calculation you can divide numerator and denominator by 2^193 (i.e. shift right 193 bits).

How does the Difficulty number (511) relate to the hash target?

511.77353426 * 2^32 = 2.2e12 hash/day, or 25 Mhash/sec.  I'm not sure how to interpret that, but it doesn't seem to reflect the 3.7 Ghash/sec total.

Also, the difficulty web page here:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

seems to think that 3,600,000 khash/sec is a 10minute average rate.

The simplest way is to derive it from the hash target (difficulty).

If you take the present target value
0000000000800e00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
and divide it by the total search space (all 0xF), you get the odds.

In decimal: 5.26786429665E+64 divided by the total search size (2^256) shows you have a one in 2.19e12 chance of finding a new block with every hash try.

We know that the network, as a whole is guided toward 6/hr, and the difficulty reflects that.  If the average generation rate is one every 10 minutes (600 seconds) then we know that the network as a whole is trying
3,663,473,554
hash attempts per second.

So the aggregate network power is around 3,663,473 khash/second.  Call it 3.7 gigahash/sec.   Further, if my machine is plugging along at 4,000 khash/sec, then I know I represent about 0.1% of the active network, and have a 1/1000 chance of finding "the next block".

If you use the *actual* recent block find rates (instead of the 10 minute average), which you currently track and graph, then you can see the interesting graph over time of how many total attempts likely produced that result.

I believe the 1/x characteristic would be more interesting to watch for trends than the seconds/block you currently graph, since the number of seconds is forced into a normalized 600 over time.  Total network strength should show an always-upward trend, with some notable spikes, dips, and steps.

I think this shows what you want. This is the total difficulty per day. to get total hashes /day multiply by 2^32.

How can khash/sec for entire network be determined?

I'll offer a BTC 100.00 bounty for an addition to
http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin/statistix.php
that shows the inverse (1/x) data: Computing power.

Specifically, total khash/sec for the entire network, based on either current difficulty or (preferably) observed block intervals / moving-average.

How "strong" is the bitcoin community now, and how is it trending?  That's what I'm looking for.  I'm not picky.

I modified statistix.php a bit so that when "showallblocks" is requested the data is flushed to output one by one, and you can stop downloading the data at anytime by pushing escape.  This is useful in case you only want to see the latest blocks and not entire history.

Also, as I have time, I will expand upon the graphs section and produce a page dedicated to graphs of all types.  I'm currently organizing and preparing my code better for release and also pushing updates to the repository.

The lower graphs would be much more interesting if they were "truncated" in the Y axis.

It seems a few early long-long-time block generations are squashing all the interesting data down to the bottom two pixel rows.

Maybe log scale?

I'd be curious to see the steps and transitions in the generation rate over time, but it's impossible to see except on the very-short-scale graphs.

http://github.com/mizerydearia/mizerydearia_phpbitcoinscripts

Thanks to Keefe @ irc for providing block data up to the data displayed.

Here is a frozen collection of data/statistix since unix timestamp 128194750 that may be useful for comparison
http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin/74638/statistix.74638.php (old chain)
http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin/74638/statistix.php (new chain)

One calculation I do for fun (but frequently get wrong) is the total khash/sec rate of the entire bitcoin herd.

If I'm thinking of it correctly, it seems like a long-term average is easily obtained from the current difficulty rating alone.

That is, the difficulty number reflects, to a coarse degree, the gigahash/sec speed of the entire generating workforce, as it was computed at the last adjustment.

From this, and my own aggregate khash/sec total, I can think about how much of the network is my own CPU, and what the odds are that I will generate the next block.   Stats for fun.

The hashtarget is wrong. Also, the font is quite hard to read. letter-spacing: 2px might make it more readable.

Awesome work mizerydearia. Do you plan on making most of these scripts open source? If I ever do make that "Bitcoin Command Center" I wouldn't want to be pounding on your server 24/7. 

See http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin, which is updated in real-time

I'd like to see the current difficulty and the number of blocks to the next adjustment on this page too.