Topic: S&P took quite a hit today - page 3. (Read 595 times)

The bullish daily close doesn't mean anything and I will tell you why.

Back when I used to day trade the stock market in 2008, I noticed that usually during end of stock trading day and especially end of week on Friday, in the last hour there was usually a rally. Later on I realised that it was nothing more than short coverings. Why? Basically markets were very volatile back then and some positive news over the weekend could cause a gap up and leave many short traders holding huge losses.

Todays close is similar. Basically no trader wants to hold a short position over the weekend in case something positive develops and they get a nasty gap up. When the markets open Sunday evening we might resume the down-trend.

The daily closed as a bullish hammer candlestick. A bit wide-bodied but it'll do:



Keep your eyes on the pre-market data during the weekend close: https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

S&P 500 mini futures are up another 31 points since the markets shut. If the market gaps up on Monday's open with a strong green candle, we'll have all 3 pieces required for a bullish morning star reversal:



It's painful waiting this stuff out, but I think both stocks and BTC are beginning to exhibit bullish reversal signs.

Plus, we have fundamentals to consider:

• Fed Is Ready to Cut Rates in Response to Coronavirus
• Bitcoin halving ETA date: 12 May 2020

Its easier to drop this much after an excessive rise and many thought it looked as much for a while.  Many stocks had a similar kind of look to a parabolic formation which only ends with a sell like this.    Its a good trigger but not the total explanation.   
  I think the profit from here is playing out the sharp recoveries that are possible, each will sell also but eventually it'll go back into some trend.   Probably it just carries on upwards and this sell isnt even that great, I think it can find support here and the SPY close today was quite positive so at least some will be watching for longs on Monday.
   BTC I think could also catch some positive moves, I dont think either are going to move down all in one go from here.   Its adjustment and less gradient and over time we'll smooth out probably, bit early to call but often it can rise alot after a fall.

Here's one of the maps, updated daily.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I also don't think that it's the fault of the virus or the panic that follows. The panic is much greater than the risk because I'm in the EU where there are almost nocases of the virus and people are already storming pharmacies, concerts and other events are being postponed, in the news reporters are telling people to make sure they have some food and water stashed at home just in case.

I know that this has nothing to do with Bitcoin and won't change my mind about investments but many people think that in case of an epidemic they won't be able to go to a bank or an ATM and may lose Internet acccess so they prefer to have cash.

I'm impressed bears took it right down through 3K!



Bounce here and we're still in the realm of "normal correction." Keep dumping through 2,800 at this rate and it starts to look considerably worse.

Lots of FUD to sift through. The infection rate in China is plummeting but since the number of countries with new cases is increasing (even with low fatality rate and number of cases) the WHO has upgraded the risk of impact to "very high" globally. The markets are panicking on news like this.

My natural inclination is to play the contrarian. Those selling out of fear right now will probably be punished by the market. This shit is pretty nuts though. My crystal ball is sort of murky.

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

The carnage continued today. The S&P 500 is down another 3.5% from Monday's close.

Let's get a little perspective though. Here's a look at similar (or larger) selloffs that occurred over the past 2 years. After each one, the market eventually continued on to a new ATH:



The 3K area is an important S/R level and also a psychological level. I expect a strong reaction off that area. I'm still bullish on stocks in the intermediate and long term, and I believe that will encourage continued bullish behavior in BTCUSD too.

Its true China is the backing to many global firms  but the actual virus isnt so deadly to working age people.   It might kill but not to sound too heartless about it, but it would mostly kill those who are in poor health anyway.   Otherwise this isnt that deadly an issue, I think the vast majority recover.   Obviously they need to develop a kind of treatment to issue and thats the 'cure' the market wants.

The wider issue is the knock the virus gives to business, it wouldn't matter normally but we've been rising for years in price but the actual good health of companies is over stated due to weak money, loose monetary policy.     This natural deflationary event is a fly in the soup to central banker printing presses.   The initial reaction is knock the price of everything seems like.

BTC price is back to the 200 day average and its gone further then I thought it might initially but people will sell anything and alot of traders do so with borrowed money, hot money is very much a thing where QE is so prevalent.   We benefit from that so its only fair BTC takes a knock too.    Maybe Tone Vays is gonna be right after all
   My normal take would be to expecting a sell to relent and we recover upwards to confirm the previous action.   To retrace some is normal but first it has to see some pressure release, I'm looking for recovery above 200 day just on buoyancy grounds nothing to guess bearish or bullish after.

Self-fulfilled prophecy. To be honest many stock investors even a year ago had been saying that the new stock crisis is already late. Depending on the measures taken by the authorities and the time of travel ban in countries, the virus can impact the economy by somehow disrupting the demand-supply chain (because if factories are not working due to staff shortage, production will be halted). If eg. car manufacturers because of that will be able to produce for few months in a row 50% or less of planned vehicles, this could trigger the panic sell-off on a huge scale capable of starting that crisis.

I did see a report earlier on the news that was saying if areas are put under quarrenteen, fixed salary workers are still entitled to their pay from the company... I'm not sure how the sick pay chema works here but I can see thst causing huge issues for some small companies if they have to pay staff to not work.

Right now there is still a lot of possibilities but even US companies are already admitting that the Coronavirus is the main reason why their stock prices drop. Aside from them having factories in there, China is also one their biggest market and there is no denting that their revenue potential is already taking a hit because of their current situation. And like I said if things will get worst there we might see an even bigger drop in the global market.

This came up in my youtube feed recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HofvVfSSaI

I don't know if much has developed, but the market normally are the first to take things seriously so I doubt it's that still.


Might be nice if real estate starts to colapse in this country. I'd say the higher price of housing makes companies put quality into the products they produce but it doesn't anymore...

And yeah once other markets see a correction some funds will move into bitcoin, espeically since the recent weeknesses in gold these days since it's overinflated so much...

It's the Coronavirus for sure, we really don't need to dive more into this in order to find a connection since it's already in front of our eyes. And what is that connection? It's simple the words “Made in China” is something that we just need to remember, products of companies like  Apple, Nike, Tesla, Intel, P&G and hundreds more of US companies are made mostly if not all in China. Of course with the annoucement of factories being forced to shutdown would not only create a scare in the global market including the US but also affect their revenu potential directly. As of right now their FUD is something caused by not only the noise surrounding the Coronavirus itself but also the fundamental performance of these US companies.

If it becomes clear that the economic party is officially over then we'll see what crypto is finally made of in such conditions. Drippy fecal matter is my guess. I can't see it happening from one event like this even if it does have repercussions. I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

I am not shocked, there is less and less money in the world and there are more and more money in the whales. People assume companies like amazon or wallmart can survive with getting richer and richer but that is not correct, when your workers go hungry, they are not going to use you.

We need to find a way to bring money back to poor people and help them get better instead of forcing people to work at 2 different jobs to survive.

I have recently read somewhere that one dude has 5 jobs, he has one job that he wakes up at 4 am and works until 1 pm, another job that starts at 2 pm and ends at 8 pm and he drove uber after that, he also had a part time gig for two days a week for covering when he has 1 day-2 day breaks from his regular job because they are 5-6 days a week jobs, so he covers his free days with another job. Dude was not making too much money, that dude was literally barely living.

American companies on the Dow jones and Nasdaq markets rely on manufacturing in china to keep their inventory levels high enough to sustain their business.  As this pandemic spreads and factories in china keep closing that will directly weight heavy on business.  But to be honest, most of it is out of the fear of uncertainty.

As far as I know(my guess, because as we all know, there's really no way to know for sure), it's not due to the corona virus itself, but specifically, the fear of the corona virus. I guess a good number of investors are expecting the virus to spread to the west and stuff to go worse from here in general.

Or yea, of course also one possibility is that we've been in a bull market for freakin who knows how long already. I'm actually liking seeing a bit of red for a change.

On the weekly chart, the drop is hardly even visible. Still above the 20-week MA, still within 5% of the ATH. Not too worried about it either.

I do hope the coronavirus stuff simmers down soon. On its own, a pandemic might not be enough to cause a recession, but it could help catalyze one that was already on the way:


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-outbreak-is-delivering-a-fresh-dose-of-recession-fear-to-the-stock-market-2020-02-22

i have a feeling that a mass panic is building up in all the different markets around the world for no reason except the excuse called Corona-virus. if you paid attention, they started spreading FUD and tried causing panic in bitcoin market a while back but interestingly enough they failed as bitcoin went up in price instead of going down and reached $10k.
we have seen stock market plunges in many cases due to this but nothing major has happened like a big crash but i think it is still a possibility if the panic grows more among investors. would be interesting to see how bitcoin reacts though, will it rise like last time?

I think what is going on is that the media is scaring many retail stock traders out of their positions in fear of some global epidemic which might cause a recession. I think many retail traders are up a large %'s in the last few years and they want to preserve profits. So they see headlines like coronavirus and assume some outbreak on the entire planet will happen and it will cause a recession.

So they just sell their positions at a profit and get out of the market. The markets correct a little and in a few weeks resume their upcourse. I can be wrong but its still very close to its ATH and this is a very healthy pullback. Most likely this is purely driven by fear.