I personally don't see why the ETF wouldn't be approved if you consider that the Winklevoss brothers have had enough time to iron out any doubts that the SEC might have had at the beginning.
You may be right, but the low probability experts
estimate for an approval isn't there without a reason. Also, on Bitmex, the current price for the binary asset (100=approval, 0=disapproval) is
34 - so traders also are thinking it's less probable than 50%.
I however think you're a bit too negative when it comes to the price in case the ETF doesn't get approved. I can understand that due to the disappointment of people some might dump as result, but I can't see the price fall below $800 just because of that. It wouldn't be fair.
There is no such thing like "fairness" in Bitcoin speculation
Was the <$200 dump in 2015 "fair"? Is it fair that early adopters that played around with play money in 2009/10 can be multi-millionaires when Bitcoin prices over $1000?
I personally don't think price would go much lower than $800 (735 or 780 are my best bets) in case of a disapproval, but as I estimate that some are speculationg on a positive outcome, we may see a dump of more than 10 or 15%.