Topic: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! - page 2. (Read 1178 times)
I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.
I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like BountySpammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
Yes sir I would like to now put in 25 earned merit as a reasonable nr I think, for the time the merit system is here, most could achieve 25, as the game is mostly meant for longer contributing members as well, so new people could be encouraged to write well and try to earn merit to be on a next game ...
For second i'm not the guy with the knowledge who are the real scammers are Alt's of others, if someone with appropriate knowledge about this matter and would help out then I would certainly wanna implement this, but me alone isn't the right guy to decide such things.....
Who will who could ??
@o_e_l_e_o, will merit your posts later, they where very helpful and well liked as the poll is showing...
I don't know but this kind of game exclude the strategy of waiting and taking as much as possible spots, as some will not be in the position with one right above and right below, what could be annoying.
Thx for all those with input and help to try create a better game.
I don't know but this kind of game exclude the strategy of waiting and taking as much as possible spots, as some will not be in the position with one right above and right below, what could be annoying.
Thx for all those with input and help to try create a better game.
I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like BountySpammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do).
Who's to say what's a crazy range. I think as mic's previous competitions have shown us, the majority of us seem to be consistently overly bullish. Unless you really believe in the accuracy of your TA, the best tactic might be to wait until a few minutes before closing time and pick a price which will gives you the largest gaps between the next closest predictions to maximize your range. Conversely, waiting until the end you may well only be left truly outlandish predictions. Who knows?Mic's last competition had 181 entries, so 50 dollar brackets would give a minimum 9k price spread, which I think is reasonable. 100 dollar brackets would need a 18k spread. Given that some brackets will go unclaimed, and we are assuming this competition will be bigger than the last, I think 50 dollar brackets seems correct.
The "I have spoken" dude didn't quite ... oh wait.. spoiler alert ... anyway, you know what I mean if you've seen it.
And then there were those mercenaries making fun of "this is his way.." .. but well, ... still awesome.
And then there were those mercenaries making fun of "this is his way.." .. but well, ... still awesome.
The option to share the slots (that I suggested while in a mild intoxicated state mind you 
) could be an interesting experiment and also it would depend if you Mic would like to have multiple winners sharing the price instead of "one winner takes it all" but... It doesn't fix the "better to wait for a late pick" strategy problem I was trying to address.
That's why I posted another (again poorly worded) post the next day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.380
If the slots are shareable it will still be better strategy to wait before making your pick, because you will be always able to chose ANY slot.
On the other hand, if there are preselected slots available in a first-come-first-served way earlier picks will be incentivised, as the "best slots" (which is very subjective and many times proved otherwise in the end) will be gone for late picks.
Also while the $25 above and under a pick seems to be fair, it allows for an strategy of:
- Be quick in decide your pick, but don't post it yet.
- Wait for someone make a pick near your target zone.
- Now add $24 above or $24 under that pick and post that as your pick.
That way you have locked additional "winning range" for your pick (and for the one you used to "pivot") and it is still in your "target zone". And you have "unfairly" reduced available space for next picks.
Conclusion:
I would preset the slots in the way oeleo has said.
The wording for the rules would be easy: Your picks must end either in 01 or 50.
For a pick ending in 01, ie 7801, the winning range would be 7776 to 7825. For the pick 7851, the winning range would be 7826 to 7875.
Of course the winning range could be even wider if there are no near picks around, but that is the minimum "unboxeable" range. So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do).
Simple, easier and non exploitable.
) could be an interesting experiment and also it would depend if you Mic would like to have multiple winners sharing the price instead of "one winner takes it all" but... It doesn't fix the "better to wait for a late pick" strategy problem I was trying to address.That's why I posted another (again poorly worded) post the next day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.380
If the slots are shareable it will still be better strategy to wait before making your pick, because you will be always able to chose ANY slot.
On the other hand, if there are preselected slots available in a first-come-first-served way earlier picks will be incentivised, as the "best slots" (which is very subjective and many times proved otherwise in the end) will be gone for late picks.
Also while the $25 above and under a pick seems to be fair, it allows for an strategy of:
- Be quick in decide your pick, but don't post it yet.
- Wait for someone make a pick near your target zone.
- Now add $24 above or $24 under that pick and post that as your pick.
That way you have locked additional "winning range" for your pick (and for the one you used to "pivot") and it is still in your "target zone". And you have "unfairly" reduced available space for next picks.
Conclusion:
I would preset the slots in the way oeleo has said.
The wording for the rules would be easy: Your picks must end either in 01 or 50.
For a pick ending in 01, ie 7801, the winning range would be 7776 to 7825. For the pick 7851, the winning range would be 7826 to 7875.
Of course the winning range could be even wider if there are no near picks around, but that is the minimum "unboxeable" range. So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do).
Simple, easier and non exploitable.
Picking from a set range would fit most people. You can define the range starting from say, 1001-1050, 1051-1100, 1101-1150 ...
Not sure if 50 is good, might be easier to do 100, so it becomes 1001-1100, .... or 1000-1099, 1100-1199, 1200-1299
You just have to set the rules what the range is, and the first one who takes a particular range gets it. Too bad for others, they can either pick something else, or pick the same one (but they don't win if that's the result.)
Not sure if 50 is good, might be easier to do 100, so it becomes 1001-1100, .... or 1000-1099, 1100-1199, 1200-1299
You just have to set the rules what the range is, and the first one who takes a particular range gets it. Too bad for others, they can either pick something else, or pick the same one (but they don't win if that's the result.)
It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
Yeah, don’t needed really it’s specially to celebrate a new year with an amazing event in the community “the halving” it will have everyone on the edge of there seats I guess and I hope I can make a winner happy !!!
Though THX anyway, but I always now you got my back
Damn still only 9 voting people
It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
One pick one winner. Imagine everyone picks only one range, then everyone wins and you have to share 100-200 satoshi in between. Of course it won't happen but the chance to stick with someone else's suggestion to win is quite higher. Fewer chosen ranges, higher chance to win. just saying...
Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
Damn
Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
People should be able to say, 'I'll take the 751-800 slot because my
afaiu
Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
SO, on the one side I have;
*price guess with UP and DOWN ranges for your guess like 7550 would mean all the prices from 7525-7575 are the ones for that guess not to be harmed by any other member
*price guess in "tick box" what would mean from zero to ..... all prices are in boxes of 200 (not sure if that would be the chosen box open for discussion) but just to explain the system... like 0-200,201-400,401-600,601-800............. are boxes and everyone can go in every box, at the end the winning box will divide the price thats awarded for the game
I will open a poll for this?? O do I got it wrong?
*price guess with UP and DOWN ranges for your guess like 7550 would mean all the prices from 7525-7575 are the ones for that guess not to be harmed by any other member
*price guess in "tick box" what would mean from zero to ..... all prices are in boxes of 200 (not sure if that would be the chosen box open for discussion) but just to explain the system... like 0-200,201-400,401-600,601-800............. are boxes and everyone can go in every box, at the end the winning box will divide the price thats awarded for the game
I will open a poll for this?? O do I got it wrong?
This is the way.
I have spoken.Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
Yeah, it's good. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:
that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter
Let us hope 2020 brings those kinds of numeric values
Also remember the date of the game isn't set yet, it will have to do something with the halving ...
I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.
A bit of a mix of them both ...
I like the idea, lets make a poll
BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target...
Of-course in a game like this, you can't serve everyone equally, there is always a difference in how others think...
Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy
On the other hand its much better to don't have any gaps of 10-20... $, though for some its nice to have these gaps the get some larger ranges etc lol
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