Sports odds, where they come from? - page 3.

rodskee

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Quote from: tread93 on January 30, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

And when AI is on the sports betting platform side which it is nowadays the odds are surely always in favor of the house, no?

what does ai have to do with it tho?

odds are adjusted so that it always goes in favor of the house or the bookmakers this is why they get to decide the odds and they get to adjust the odds to how they want so that at the end of the day they still earn some and they do not leave the event empty handed no matter who loses or no matter who wins

ai or no ai, don’t expect to overcome bookmakers lol

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

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It usually just starts at a base, e.g. 1:1 and are adjusted based on how many (and the amount) users place their bets on one side or the other. Still, I HIGHLY doubt that the base starts at an equal rate, they probably have their own factors that they choose from to adjust the base odds and then release it to the market. Kinda like how an AI places answer a as good and answer b as bad depending on some factors. Can't really answer what they are but they probably have some base since we almost always see similar odds across most bookies.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

The answer is that it is not just one factor that is being considered to come up with the odds.

The starting point is of course the historical performance of a team and the likelihood of that team to win however casino’s objective is to make sure that either way there will be a balanced amount of money betted on each side. They need to make sure that the house will make profit no matter what the outcome so they can move the odds to how they see fit.

If more people are betting only on one side then the casino would lower the odds for one team and increase for the other so that bettors would find that team more appealing to bet on.

tread93

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Quote from: Poker Player on January 30, 2025, 11:44:10 AM

I remember researched about it in the past and AFAIK the odds are given by combining a mix of past results with what people bet on. If the past results of a match of X vs Y give odds of 2 to 1 but people are betting more money on Y, the odds are adjusted. Other factors can also be taken into account such as if the best player on the team is injured or suspended and will not play. But those odds are given by computer programs and nowadays AI intervenes.

And when AI is on the sports betting platform side which it is nowadays the odds are surely always in favor of the house, no? Its pretty crazy all that AI has done for this hobby and everything that is transpiring. As of late the new Deep Seek from China is pretty wild> I wonder if that will also be used as an API on casino betting platforms in that region soon?

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

As far as I know though, this casinos might have been working with some prominent oddsmaking services in, you guess it in Las Vegas.

That's why you will notice that almost all casinos have the same odds, maybe it come from the same source or other oddsmaking services that's why the odds are very close to each other. I do not think that casinos themselves is the one creating the odds for themselves.

Here is a good read: The greatest Las Vegas oddsmaker you’ve never heard of.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

The sports books hire match makers that make the lines. Those lines will move up or down based on the action. So if the line is too high and everyone comes in on the other team the line will shift down until the bets start to even put across both teams.

Aanuoluwatofunmi

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

There could be many factors to be considered when choosing for which of the odds will best fit in for a bet, one of the first thing they will mostly have to put in first is the kind of bet in question, the strength of each of the team as well as the chances for winning and that of losing the bet, because they already know that the strong team will definitely have a smaller odd as against the small team with a bigger odd, same applies if the two teams are strong, they will make a much similarities in their odds and this alone could be confusing to some players to determine which to got for.

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Quote from: Ojima-ojo on January 30, 2025, 02:49:05 PM

Bookmakers also follow the general market odds, these odds are set as the default value of each team or player, this could be adjustable by each casino but within a limit that is set in between each and followed up asap by others so the system works together.

Bookmakers are the ones making the odds, that's why the are them bookmakers, they are not following the market they make the calls, they set up the first odds and then they decide how the odds move on the inflow of money, there are no "general market" odds, it all comes to the bookies, they release those and then the money dictates where they go.
Also, casino have nothing to do with sports odds.

Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

There is no system that is perfect.
If they release odds on 1.4 for one team and nobody is betting on the other team despite odds getting lower and lower till they end up at 1.0 and betting is disabled if the favorite wins they will have to pay that all and there will be no loser to get money from.
Happens quite often in horse racing especially when one stable is on fire with their horses and jockeys, happened at Ascot where horses came down from 4.0 to 1.5 1.8 and won, one such thing back a few years ago was a total disaster for bookies with more than 2/3 of the money being placed on the winning favorite.

Sports betting is not an RTP game, it can seriously backfire.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

This is a well known discussion and the odds providers, yes there are companies who deal exclusively with setting odds for the different casinos that choose to pay a provider to get their odds. Now this thing of odds low 1.1 like you say means jack shit as I have seen even 1.03 in tennis or 1.04 in basketball and in fact in basketball I will never forget the reigning Champions losing at home to last place with an odd 1.04 which is the biggest surprise I have seen in this sport yet, it was last season and it was Boston Celtics that were leading the Championship and they lost to last place, there is no provability with odds, the providers think that each team has this amount of percentage to win against another and decide upon that, no one forces you to choose the favorite, as simple as that.

Orpichukwu

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Is this why odds for sports games keep on changing from what they were on the date a match date is chosen down to the date on which the game is to be played? I always think the odds are adjusted to fit in what the bookmakers feel will become the outcome of the game, as the time of the match draws nearer, so they see a clearer possibility of what the outcome will be and adjust the odds to the one with a higher chance of success reducing and the one with a low chance of winning increasing. This has always been my guess.

SmartGold01

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Wait let me getting something straight about this odds rationalization..
Does it mean that odds are no longer subjected to how higher the club could be? Because if this is actually the main thing that happens then the bookmakers could likely give lesser odds to losing team in other to lure people to choose the lesser odds than going for the right team, I know discussion like this always gives us meaning and the chances to learn more new things while gambling.

Ojima-ojo

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Very correct like say the bookies set a 5% profit on each game, team odds system is a persistent changing mechanism that works with time and conditions pf the game if team A is leading, the value of odds for the team starts decreasing since the potential value have been taken by the team A whereas the team B who is the losing team at that moment becomes worthless and with huge odds merging since the game in already against them.

Bookmakers also follow the general market odds, these odds are set as the default value of each team or player, this could be adjustable by each casino but within a limit that is set in between each and followed up asap by others so the system works together.

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Quote from: Samlucky O on January 30, 2025, 02:24:32 PM

I have asked this question before but I just guess this is programed in such a way that the more people select more of a particular club then the odd reduces. while the lesser they selected a particular game the odd increase l. That is to say the higher the chances of win the smaller the odd. And vise versa the lesser people select a mach the higher the odd increase or the lesser opportunity of win.

This is not how it is. Even if many people have not chosen the odd, a strong team odd will be very low while an underdog team odd will be very high. But there are times that a team can be given a high odd. This can be noticed and they can look into it and check about the match information and players to know what is happening. Also if a team is resting the key players, you can see the low odd increased a little in a noticable way.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I have asked this question before but I just guess this is programed in such a way that the more people select more of a particular club then the odd reduces. while the lesser they selected a particular game the odd increase l. That is to say the higher the chances of win the smaller the odd. And vise versa the lesser people select a mach the higher the odd increase or the lesser opportunity of win.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

The odds come from possibility, speculation, analysis and hope, and this can be created if in a regulated match, but if you look at it naturally then we will speculate with the calculation of the data received so as to create a possibility that will finally be poured into odds in numbers including how much risk will be taken by a casino to provide odds to a match either ball or anything else that is match betting.

Findingnemo

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Odds are calculated based on many variables which includes the team/players stats, recent performance and the opponent and these are done by the Bookmakers not just by the casino platforms. You may also find different odds for a same game on two different betting platforms which is just due to the different bookmakers.

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on January 30, 2025, 11:00:36 AM

I think the odds are adjusted based on the gambling providers, they're not adjusted based on the bookies' profitability. Because when I gamble on different bookies and I see they're using the same providers, the odds are almost same.

But, when you compare it to other providers, the odds can be different, although not really far.

It's an exception if the bookie create by themselves from scratch, so they can adjust based on their bankroll.

danherbias07 said something similar. In your opinion, they odds are not calculated by each platform, but they all rely on some provider with authority to calculate them.

Maybe very big companies don't rely on third parties for that. Other users like dansus021 but not only him think that each platform calculates their own odds themselves.

I'll keep an eye on this thread. It is interesting to know where these odds come from, and I think that many of us may be wrong about their origin.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I just do quick google search and the Google AI said something like this "Sports odds in gambling come from a combination of statistical analysis, expert opinions, historical performance, and market forces."

or in a simple way is the casino need some data, betting action from the user and public opinion all of that gather by the casino and the odds is born

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Exactly I think the bookmakers are responsible for this actions because everything is mastermind in such a way that it'll definitely boil down to making the casinos generate more profit from it but I wonder why they make their scale for calculating the odds so fair, so this is why it's all game of luck cause in this case now if it's been adjusted and favours your odd then you just won a jackpots.

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I remember researched about it in the past and AFAIK the odds are given by combining a mix of past results with what people bet on. If the past results of a match of X vs Y give odds of 2 to 1 but people are betting more money on Y, the odds are adjusted. Other factors can also be taken into account such as if the best player on the team is injured or suspended and will not play. But those odds are given by computer programs and nowadays AI intervenes.

Topic: Sports odds, where they come from? - page 3. (Read 529 times)