Sports "trap of the day" , or is it?

Japinat

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Quote from: Oluwa-btc on Today at 03:26:39 AM

Traps of the day usually occur unknowingly especially when you have so much fate in the odds and sometimes a trap can happen in different ways too provided you're unsure of that particular game but you tend to give a try and then you end up knowing it's all a trap, it's sure fustrating and being manipulated into such traps results in you loosing your funds.

You can’t determine if it’s a trap unless you have a good feel for how trap lines work.
You also won’t know for sure if it was really a trap until the game is over, so it’s more of a gut feel based on the factors you’re seeing before the game.

But if you’re good at spotting trap lines and actually winning because of it then that’s probably one of the best strategies for long-term success.

I still believe that sports betting is a skill-based game, but even with skill it’s still tough to consistently win in the long run.

Oluwa-btc

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Quote from: EluguHcman on January 27, 2025, 06:00:55 AM

Instead of considering the odds, it is better and wise to consider the teams and weights your predictions based on their capacities because taking decisions based on the odds can be entrapping.

Traps of the day usually occur unknowingly especially when you have so much fate in the odds and sometimes a trap can happen in different ways too provided you're unsure of that particular game but you tend to give a try and then you end up knowing it's all a trap, it's sure fustrating and being manipulated into such traps results in you loosing your funds.

davis196

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Korean women's basketball? I would never bet money on a Korean woman's basketball game, even if the odds are really good.
Do you think that the bookies are deliberately creating such "traps" in order to legally steal the gambler's money. Grin

Do you have insider information about this particular game being fixed? There are some really suspicious odds in my country's football league, but the football league where I live is notorious with accusations of fixed games and corruption. There are no clear evidences about such "traps" and I don't want to speculate about this topic.

stompix

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 27, 2025, 01:53:25 AM

Making a new thread for sports bettors to post their trap of day games. What's a trap game you ask? A game where the odds literally make 0 sense and the odds are too good to be true.

But why would this be a trap?
The favorite got way too good odds, it wasn't as much a trap as an opportunity, a trap would be one where the player is deceived into putting money because he thinks there is no way this will not happen, rather than a trap I actually smell something completely wrong with this, they started 2.7 and dropped to 2.1 in a matter of hours, that must have been a ton of money compared to the volume, I see on odds portal the 0.6 change in less than 4 hours.Somebody must have taken a serious gamble on them!

Su-asa

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Quote from: Perfectbaby on January 30, 2025, 08:46:44 AM

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on January 30, 2025, 08:24:08 AM

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side.

You know most times when i comes across game like i do think twice before making my pick because sometimes the bookmaker themselves could twist up the whole thing were you can't be able to detects which is the team to win due to irregular odds rotation. When I see the winning team have less odds and seeing the losing team having a lesser odds, i don't mind going for research to know why such weak team was given a lesser odds, some could be that due to change in players or newly assigned player but if i don't find similar i often go with the team which i believed to win the game, what i mostly understand is that they often used odd probability to scare some gamblers to go pick the wrong option this is for those who are easily trigged by odds.

It's hard to know the actual games that will bring winning to you, that's why it's based on luck a gambler can win. Although winning games is fun but one won't be happen when losing, especially when on a losing streak. However, on gamble even appling a single strategy all the time might not give you a constant winning because odds changes. Life bets odds are not the same if the games haven't started.
Reason why a weaker team is giving the smaller odds is because the best player on the stronger team is injured and won't be playing the game. So the weaker team will be given the smaller odds while the stranger team will be given the bigger odds. Sometimes they both draw the games or any of the both team might win. The results of the games depends on the players.

Perfectbaby

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on January 30, 2025, 08:24:08 AM

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side.

You know most times when i comes across game like i do think twice before making my pick because sometimes the bookmaker themselves could twist up the whole thing were you can't be able to detects which is the team to win due to irregular odds rotation. When I see the winning team have less odds and seeing the losing team having a lesser odds, i don't mind going for research to know why such weak team was given a lesser odds, some could be that due to change in players or newly assigned player but if i don't find similar i often go with the team which i believed to win the game, what i mostly understand is that they often used odd probability to scare some gamblers to go pick the wrong option this is for those who are easily trigged by odds.

AHOYBRAUSE

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on January 30, 2025, 08:24:08 AM

Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 27, 2025, 01:53:25 AM

-snip-
So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side. However, this doesn't automatically tell about the outcome of matches and events in the matches but are often a reflection of the obvious having carefully considered all factors which are not limited to the current feat of the two teams, their history against each other, histories at home, injuries etc.

At times too, the odds could be a bait, which calls for extensive research before opting for sports options.

That's the most generic and AI sounding post I have seen today, honestly. Of course high odds go to the underdog and low odds go to the favorite? Was there really any need to explain this? Roll Eyes

In this case the odds made no sense, no sense whatsoever. Also, after the game I checked the box score and the same players were on the court that played each other some days back when they faced off and the favorite had 1.25 odds. So the odds went from being a 8-10 points favorite in game 1 to being a 2 point favorite in game 2, with the exact some situation (players, home court, momentum, position in standings).

Too bad we also have some signature campaign spam here, as usual.
None spamming members, please feel free to post games yourself, it's nice to have a discussion about those games when they appear.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 27, 2025, 01:53:25 AM

-snip-
So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side. However, this doesn't automatically tell about the outcome of matches and events in the matches but are often a reflection of the obvious having carefully considered all factors which are not limited to the current feat of the two teams, their history against each other, histories at home, injuries etc.

At times too, the odds could be a bait, which calls for extensive research before opting for sports options.

Baofeng

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Quote from: joniboini on January 29, 2025, 08:36:36 PM

Quote from: Baofeng on January 27, 2025, 04:22:42 PM

The thing is, there are news that are not really out in the public until game time.

Is this common in popular games though? I mainly follow football news and their coverage is huge. Depending on who you ask, you can get some made-up rumors to accurate insider information. It's not hard to imagine these insiders also leaking the news to a bookmaker, especially on unpopular competitions. This made me recall a thread talking about betting on some obscure games on this board. I guess the lesson shared on that thread also applies to the case described by OP.

It's hard to say if this is common, but in basketball particularly in NBA, there could be teams that hold the news until near the game. It could be practice though specially if there is a high stakes game.

Quote from: joniboini on January 29, 2025, 08:36:36 PM

Btw OP, the odds shared on the game you mentioned seem to have changed before the game started, CMIIW. You can probably ask the bookmaker how they determine the odds if they share how their calculation works. Maybe injuries don't affect it as much as social media trends.

Not much you can do if you will ask the sports bookies as they will be firmed on the listing. Injuries are a big deal specially if the person is what we call the franchise player, or the number 1 option to score. And we have a NBA thread and some of the best tipsters sometimes fall for this trap.

TravelMug

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 30, 2025, 04:28:42 AM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on January 29, 2025, 09:19:49 PM

Personally, I find the concept of a “trap” a bit contradictory and confusing. But the expression “too good to be true” is funny. In general, I would go the classic way and stick to the vulue strategy. Our task is to determine the initial odds of the game as if we were unbiased bookmakers. Who take into account all available and relevant information, and all the rest of the change in odds occurs due to the change in the balance of bets between two or three outcomes of the game. And if you see an inflated odds, which is nevertheless probable in terms of winning, then it is worth considering as a working scenario.

Trap games are a common expression to be honest. So often in for example college basketball a on paper much better team, that also beat the same team by like 20-30 points 1 week prior, is playing against a team they should dominate again but the odds make it a 50/50 affair, which is very strange. Still, because of the situation on paper the masses bet on this team because it's the only logic bet when you get such high odds. And what do you know, the should be big underdog for whatever reason dominates and wins the game, as Vegas predicted. It's so strange sometimes.

Yeah, and it's so tricky that after the game, you really don't know what really happen and you can only conclude that the favorite really had a bad game, and it seems that the rim is getting smaller and smaller.

Or there could be what we call a sucker trap, for sure most roulette games players knows this. In a single 0 roulette, payout is 35:1, but in reality you have a 1/37 chance of wining and yet there are players who are "suckered" by this games.

AHOYBRAUSE

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on January 29, 2025, 09:19:49 PM

Personally, I find the concept of a “trap” a bit contradictory and confusing. But the expression “too good to be true” is funny. In general, I would go the classic way and stick to the vulue strategy. Our task is to determine the initial odds of the game as if we were unbiased bookmakers. Who take into account all available and relevant information, and all the rest of the change in odds occurs due to the change in the balance of bets between two or three outcomes of the game. And if you see an inflated odds, which is nevertheless probable in terms of winning, then it is worth considering as a working scenario.

Trap games are a common expression to be honest. So often in for example college basketball a on paper much better team, that also beat the same team by like 20-30 points 1 week prior, is playing against a team they should dominate again but the odds make it a 50/50 affair, which is very strange. Still, because of the situation on paper the masses bet on this team because it's the only logic bet when you get such high odds. And what do you know, the should be big underdog for whatever reason dominates and wins the game, as Vegas predicted. It's so strange sometimes.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: joniboini on January 29, 2025, 08:36:36 PM

Quote from: Baofeng on January 27, 2025, 04:22:42 PM

The thing is, there are news that are not really out in the public until game time.

Is this common in popular games though? I mainly follow football news and their coverage is huge. Depending on who you ask, you can get some made-up rumors to accurate insider information. It's not hard to imagine these insiders also leaking the news to a bookmaker, especially on unpopular competitions. This made me recall a thread talking about betting on some obscure games on this board. I guess the lesson shared on that thread also applies to the case described by OP.

Btw OP, the odds shared on the game you mentioned seem to have changed before the game started, CMIIW. You can probably ask the bookmaker how they determine the odds if they share how their calculation works. Maybe injuries don't affect it as much as social media trends.

I think it will have consequences though if their is a last minute announcement in basketball (I assume he is talking about that game because he mentioned a basketball player), and so when the line is already open and you already put a bet assuming that there will be no injuries.

However, they announced it late as almost all the bettors have put their stakes already, for sure the line will change. And if you didn't notice it then you will be trap and obviously your bet will be a L already. This things usually happened in the NBA.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: freedomgo on January 27, 2025, 04:01:37 AM

When it comes to spotting traps, it really depends on the person analyzing them. I’ve been using the formula of betting against the public, but my intuition isn’t always correct. Even if it works most of the time, discipline is key, as without proper bankroll management, you won’t truly know if the method is effective in the long run.

There really is no fool proof strategy. There is at least 2% or 3% error margin for all of the bets you place in total. It does not specifically mean that it is a failure but you have to expect that no matter how much you win in a specific strategy, there would come a time where it would not work.

The most important thing though is that generally or most of the time the strategy works.

Quote

This doesn’t just happen in one specific league; I’ve seen it in the NBA and even in local basketball. There are lines that look like traps, and most of the time, my predictions are right. I think having a solid familiarity with the league really helps in spotting these traps accurately.

Being familiar with how the teams and how each athlete performs under different conditions will definitely help you identify traps.

Julien_Olynpic

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Personally, I find the concept of a “trap” a bit contradictory and confusing. But the expression “too good to be true” is funny. In general, I would go the classic way and stick to the vulue strategy. Our task is to determine the initial odds of the game as if we were unbiased bookmakers. Who take into account all available and relevant information, and all the rest of the change in odds occurs due to the change in the balance of bets between two or three outcomes of the game. And if you see an inflated odds, which is nevertheless probable in terms of winning, then it is worth considering as a working scenario.

joniboini

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Quote from: Baofeng on January 27, 2025, 04:22:42 PM

The thing is, there are news that are not really out in the public until game time.

Is this common in popular games though? I mainly follow football news and their coverage is huge. Depending on who you ask, you can get some made-up rumors to accurate insider information. It's not hard to imagine these insiders also leaking the news to a bookmaker, especially on unpopular competitions. This made me recall a thread talking about betting on some obscure games on this board. I guess the lesson shared on that thread also applies to the case described by OP.

Btw OP, the odds shared on the game you mentioned seem to have changed before the game started, CMIIW. You can probably ask the bookmaker how they determine the odds if they share how their calculation works. Maybe injuries don't affect it as much as social media trends.

Baofeng

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Quote from: Weawant on January 27, 2025, 09:04:16 AM

This is why it's always good to have some sort of information about teams before ever trying to bet on them because that will build you an edge to not fall for some kind of betting traps like you have mentioned, there are times you get to see certain odds and because you have vast knowledge about how such sport does work and some knowledge of the teams, you will not fall for it based on your analysis because you have sufficient information enough to help you make an informed choice so you don't depend on the casino perspective as projected in the odds.

The thing is, there are news that are not really out in the public until game time. And just like NBA bettors, I have been trapped as well like when the Bucks faces a team, I forgot about it, but suddenly for unknown reasons, Giannis didn't play.

Or the recent lost of the hometown team and the number 1 seed in the West which is the OKC against the Luka less Dallas Mavericks. OKC has been beating teams with double digits lead and mostly covering the handicap. Maybe it's not a trap but an upset, but still though, all sports bookies put them as the favorite.

mindrust

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Bookmakers might know something we don’t. I know these guys make mistakes sometimes but it is not like they do it all the time. If they weren’t calculating the odds right they’d go out of business real quick because there are many people like you who look for these kind of mistakes.

I have no insight about the game you are talking about btw but all I am saying is there is probably a reason for the odds of this game. You’ll know it when the game ends too probably.

Stepstowealth

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 27, 2025, 01:53:25 AM

Making a new thread for sports bettors to post their trap of day games. What's a trap game you ask? A game where the odds literally make 0 sense and the odds are too good to be true.

If the odds for a game is simply too good to be true, how come gamblers find it difficult to just avoid it. The temptation to play these games is very high for sport bettors, very high that I can lead you into ignoring any sense of reasoning that the bookmakers maybe know something or have an access to an information we lack. One thing is sure for me about this games that we can call the trap of the day, I always try to avoid them.

bitbollo

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Each gambler must be aware that there are no "crazy odds". it's really hard to get an error odds.
I have seen just few on my entire gambling life (+20 years) and in some cases there was just a rigged match or wrong odds were "suspended".

The real question (at least to me ) is = why you need to gamble in an event where you don't have any clue on what they are playing, their current standing or even player on each team?
If you think you're doing good just betting looking for some "random numbers" (the odds) and "random words" (the name of the team).
NO you are doing good....

rachael9385

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on January 27, 2025, 01:53:25 AM

Am not a good sport predictor, even if I bet on a game that too good to be true I won't notice unless I tried to bet on low odds but made a mistake to click the bigger odds. Well that's called a mistake and not a trap. Gamble can be fun most times, so even though you mistakenly played the odd you don't want to, you might be lucky to win. The only thing that looks like a trap to me is when the best player of the club didn't play based on injuries or something.

Topic: Sports "trap of the day" , or is it? (Read 227 times)