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Sparta Prague vs Monaco
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/sportsbet-specials/daily-specials/champions-league/sparta-prague-as-monaco-fc-61093f2eb3be6244129148b4
Topic: Sportsbet.io "Soccer Blackjack" @ 21.00 odds - page 31. (Read 14914 times)
We are counting down the weeks and days to the start of big leagues, and all the charity cup games for domestic are starting, Champions League and Europa League are also starting qualification (not just preliminary) so everything is really looking "normal" again. One more hit before real Leagues start, right?
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Sparta Prague vs Monaco
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/sportsbet-specials/daily-specials/champions-league/sparta-prague-as-monaco-fc-61093f2eb3be6244129148b4
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Sparta Prague vs Monaco
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/sportsbet-specials/daily-specials/champions-league/sparta-prague-as-monaco-fc-61093f2eb3be6244129148b4
I might say that I miss at least a 19 or 20 push so we could at the edge of our sanity to not get busted haha.Today, PSG really had the 2nd and 3rd team today playing on the pitch as the big names are still in vacation or just training separately to get in shape easy. Also they have some injuries as Sergio Ramos came 2 weeks ago and he's already injured ....I guess the age starts to speaks for itself in this situations but it will be nice to see how PSG progress in UCL this year and also they want revenge for not taking Ligue 1.
I am the opposite I guess, I would rather have very low end pushes, and then one big win. It feels like if we have too many 20s, we will go over and bust;) I would even like a few busts and a lot of very low pushes. To make the win sweeter of course;)
PSG may not win even the league or cup next season if they continue with their strategy of experience versus hunger from youth:)
and I don't have an automated way of getting this data so I probably won't be doing anything older than this to get a larger sample size.
Wait what, did you get all these data manually 1 by 1 for every matches from 5 leagues? Thats insane. Here have some merit for your effort although you already had alot lol
I'm not that crazy
I was able to find CSVs of match results and stats for those leagues, and using the power of Excel I summed up the relevant stats. It wasn't terribly difficult to do but slightly time consuming and boring, so I don't really want to do more. If anyone else wants to give it a shot, I got my data from here.
and I don't have an automated way of getting this data so I probably won't be doing anything older than this to get a larger sample size.
Wait what, did you get all these data manually 1 by 1 for every matches from 5 leagues? Thats insane. Here have some merit for your effort although you already had alot lol
Anyway, despite the higher bust rate in some league It seems the number of BJ hits off set the busts so in the end its still profit considering that if you bet on all those
I might say that I miss at least a 19 or 20 push so we could at the edge of our sanity to not get busted haha
Well all it matters is to skip the busts but if you are unlucky then you might also skip the BJ lol. I have 3 busts so far and no BJ hit yet.
I might say that I miss at least a 19 or 20 push so we could at the edge of our sanity to not get busted haha.Today, PSG really had the 2nd and 3rd team today playing on the pitch as the big names are still in vacation or just training separately to get in shape easy. Also they have some injuries as Sergio Ramos came 2 weeks ago and he's already injured ....I guess the age starts to speaks for itself in this situations but it will be nice to see how PSG progress in UCL this year and also they want revenge for not taking Ligue 1.
Full Time:
Lille 1-0 PSG
Goals : 1
Cards : 6
Corners : 9
It’s a push with 16.
I do wonder how the data works out for different leagues and competitions. I'd expect them to be mostly similar, but as we saw with Euro 2020, some tournaments just end up being low scoring overall.
I found some data for all matches of the 2020-2021 seasons for the top 5 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) and this is how they compare:
| _______ | | | EPL | | | La Liga | | | Bundesliga* | | | Serie A | | | Ligue 1 |
| Bust | | | 35 (9.2%) | | | 32 (8.4%) | | | 30 (9.8%) | | | 62 (16.3%) !! | | | 42 (11.1%) |
| Win | | | 18 (4.7%) | | | 13 (3.4%) | | | 10 (3.3%) | | | 17 (4.5%) | | | 16 (4.2%) |
| Push | | | 327 (86.1%) | | | 335 (88.2%) | | | 266 (86.9%) | | | 301 (79.2%) | | | 322 (84.7%) |
| Avg Pts | | | 15.87 | | | 15.9 | | | 15.93 | | | 17.29 | | | 16.42 |
* Bundesliga plays a 306 game season - all other leagues listed here have a 380 game season.
EPL and Ligue 1 seem like the best contenders for blackjack and earning a profit, while Serie A is a bit riskier. La Liga and Bundesliga are fairly similar with a lower win rate. Obviously all of this data is subject to variance though, and I don't have an automated way of getting this data so I probably won't be doing anything older than this to get a larger sample size.
A boring match in terms of corners, even 7 yellow cards could not bring the game afire in the end, but I guess Portuguese football doesn't really go for corners much? Not that I keep track of them:)
French cup game now! But we look for our luck in another game and it is now LIVE. Good luck everyone
Lille vs PSG
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/sportsbet-specials/daily-specials/soccer-blackjack/losc-lille-paris-saint-germain-fc-61069f69e8b27bb6775eef66
French cup game now! But we look for our luck in another game and it is now LIVE. Good luck everyone
Lille vs PSG
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/sportsbet-specials/daily-specials/soccer-blackjack/losc-lille-paris-saint-germain-fc-61069f69e8b27bb6775eef66
Has anyone calculated the winning probability for these outcomes?
My calculations show that it is approx 2,3622%
Reward is very tempting, but betting is much more risky than in the real Black Jack..
My calculations show that it is approx 2,3622%
Reward is very tempting, but betting is much more risky than in the real Black Jack..
As other responses previous, there's been a lot of different calculations but probability is really difficult, especially when the game is played across different leagues and tournaments. How did you arrive at your calculations? That's for a Blackjack hit. What do your numbers say about the probability of the push and the bust?? For 2.3 win chance (1 out of 50) you can withstand 2 out of 5 busts. I suspect it's a bit lower than 2/5 for a bust, which makes it +EV.
I rather seem to think, again, depending on the league, but seems to be true across all leagues, the probability of higher numbers decreases past 21.
Those stats points towards a BlackJack soon ? At least we don't have so many busts because 13 is a decent number if you caught at least 2 blackjacks and if you caught all 3 of them you should be on profit.
It's still very early on the pre-season and we still have a lot of friendly games on go-going and why would teams push for an all out game ? I suppose next phase of UCL and Europa League will bring some more action even if we had so many surprises in Conference League this week. I mean all 3 of my national teams were eliminated and FCSB had odds of 1.20 at some point...and still lost.
It's still very early on the pre-season and we still have a lot of friendly games on go-going and why would teams push for an all out game ? I suppose next phase of UCL and Europa League will bring some more action even if we had so many surprises in Conference League this week. I mean all 3 of my national teams were eliminated and FCSB had odds of 1.20 at some point...and still lost.
Full time result :
Goals : 3
Cards : 7
Corners : 5
Total points : 15 and its a push. I cant wait for the other league to roll again soon
I did some math for 286 EPL games last season and found that approximately 4% of games would have resulted in a blackjack.
Thats a nett profit of 230 units considering if we hit all the BJ and busts
but betting is much more risky than in the real Black Jack..
I think this is much better than the actual Blackjack but the problem is that its literally 1 bet per day so it takes time and sometimes you could miss the bet that was supposed to be the BJ lol
I did some math for an 286 EPL games last season and found that approximately 4% of games would have resulted in a blackjack. There is a ton of variance though - our actual win count would be way higher if one of the many 20 point games just got one more point
I do wonder how the data works out for different leagues and competitions. I'd expect them to be mostly similar, but as we saw with Euro 2020, some tournaments just end up being low scoring overall.
Thanks for some stats. It is really hard to calculate value proposition for bj bets because of that mentioned variance. So far our wins more than cover the loses but I am playing this mostly for the fun factor anyway. I do wonder how the data works out for different leagues and competitions. I'd expect them to be mostly similar, but as we saw with Euro 2020, some tournaments just end up being low scoring overall.
Missed it today.
Official Results
Blackjack! = 3
Bust = 13
Push = 114
Blackjack! = 3
Bust = 13
Push = 114
Has anyone calculated the winning probability for these outcomes?
My calculations show that it is approx 2,3622%
Reward is very tempting, but betting is much more risky than in the real Black Jack..
I did some math for 286 EPL games last season and found that approximately 4% of games would have resulted in a blackjack. There is a ton of variance though - our actual win count would be way higher if one of the many 20 point games just got one more point
I do wonder how the data works out for different leagues and competitions. I'd expect them to be mostly similar, but as we saw with Euro 2020, some tournaments just end up being low scoring overall.
Official Results
Blackjack! = 3
Bust = 13
Push = 114
Blackjack! = 3
Bust = 13
Push = 114
Has anyone calculated the winning probability for these outcomes?
My calculations show that it is approx 2,3622%
Reward is very tempting, but betting is much more risky than in the real Black Jack..
Good luck everyone, unfortunately I slept through today 
Yesterday we didn't have one I guess? Still feeling buzzy from the hit, and no we didn't get a consecutive one, but remember, the last hit came not long after the previous one, so you never know. For me, I see I bet:)
Good luck today to everyone! Enjoy the weekend.
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Sporting vs Braga
https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/27b61752-c3c0-4588-9b21-ff8bda656c3e
Good luck today to everyone! Enjoy the weekend.
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Sporting vs Braga
https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/27b61752-c3c0-4588-9b21-ff8bda656c3e
Are you saying there is a quantitative limit on blackjack? For some reason, I always thought that this offer was valid for only two hours from the moment of publication, regardless of how many people joined. By the way, according to the results of the first half, only 8 points (4 goals, 2 cards, 2 corners).
We are guessing, at least I am 
But let's call it educated guess. By my observations most blackjack offers are valid for two hours as you said but some of them expired a lot sooner. My guess is that is because there is a limit for how many bets they will take, never checked it though. Maybe it is just a case of somebody setting the promo wrong but I always noticed it on higher profile games so...There's a limit on every market, it's pretty normal. Some limits you hit on your own (like how our stake is limited per person/account), some limits are by available "liquidity". I personally see it as assurance that all bets and payouts can be honoured by the book because they know their evolving risk. I wouldn't be betting on a book without these limits, as then I know they're gambling on outcomes rather than on balanced accounting sheets. Hertha-Liverpool even as a friendly was big. Watched the game and stadium was almost full -- VVD made his reappearance and the fans wanted to see that so badly!
Tonight's game: Hertha Berlin v Liverpool
https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/49fcfcee-2043-48bd-a61c-f5c912d95d9c
https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/49fcfcee-2043-48bd-a61c-f5c912d95d9c
Full Time
H Berlin 4-3 Liverpool
Goals : 7
Cards : 3
Corners : 6
It’s a push with 16.
We are guessing, at least I am But let's call it educated guess. By my observations most blackjack offers are valid for two hours as you said but some of them expired a lot sooner. My guess is that is because there is a limit for how many bets they will take, never checked it though. Maybe it is just a case of somebody setting the promo wrong but I always noticed it on higher profile games so...
Trofo, your reasoning is reasonable if look at the whole situation, [since I remember a similar situation] but jeremypwr posted the link an hour after the two hour period ... and I'm pretty sure that after clicking on the link before publishing, he was unable to join blackjack, but decided to make a formal publication for the sake of statistics that he maintains at the beginning of this thread. I appeared online when there were 7 minutes left on the countdown timer, and only after an hour or an hour and a half I saw a bump in this thread, so I assumed .. that today's round is not one of those rounds that have expired due to the hype. But let's call it educated guess. By my observations most blackjack offers are valid for two hours as you said but some of them expired a lot sooner. My guess is that is because there is a limit for how many bets they will take, never checked it though. Maybe it is just a case of somebody setting the promo wrong but I always noticed it on higher profile games so...Are you saying there is a quantitative limit on blackjack? For some reason, I always thought that this offer was valid for only two hours from the moment of publication, regardless of how many people joined. By the way, according to the results of the first half, only 8 points (4 goals, 2 cards, 2 corners).
We are guessing, at least I am But let's call it educated guess. By my observations most blackjack offers are valid for two hours as you said but some of them expired a lot sooner. My guess is that is because there is a limit for how many bets they will take, never checked it though. Maybe it is just a case of somebody setting the promo wrong but I always noticed it on higher profile games so... Jump to: