I'll try to run the numbers later today to try to figure out what EPL games would have caused a win for this promotion this season, if any.
Took a bit longer because it was super annoying to find a good data source, since most of the APIs that I looked through required payment to get full details or were super annoying to work with. Assuming my data was correct, out of the 286 EPL games played so far in this season:
252 ended below 21
12 ended at exactly 21
22 ended above 21 (out of those, only 8 were above 22)
These were the matches where the bet would have paid:
12/09/2020 West Ham Newcastle
19/09/2020 Everton West Brom
27/09/2020 Tottenham Newcastle
04/10/2020 Aston Villa Liverpool
18/10/2020 Tottenham West Ham
25/10/2020 Arsenal Leicester
06/12/2020 West Brom Crystal Palace
12/12/2020 Wolves Aston Villa
28/12/2020 Chelsea Aston Villa
26/01/2021 Newcastle Leeds
13/02/2021 Leicester Liverpool
21/02/2021 Aston Villa Leicester
Something like this is definitely going to be pretty high variance, but I think it's pretty clear that it's an insanely good promotion