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Topic: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75% (Bloomberg) - page 2. (Read 469 times)

legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 4270
~snip~
In any case, the only thing I wonder is the effect that the approval of an ETF in USA could have on the bitcoin price, otherwise it is ETF after all and that is not the way we want bitcoin to be adopted... so it isn't really something we want to be excited about.

If we look realistically at how an average Bitcoin investor thinks, then we don't need to look for any additional explanation as to why so much dust is being raised around this ETF. The whole thing revolves around the fact that most people are counting on BlackRock and other companies of that type to cause a big bull run, and all that remains after that is to sell BTC and take as much profit as possible.

Of course, these same people are counting on the fact that sooner or later the price will drop significantly again and that they will be able to repeat the whole process again, but the question is whether history will repeat itself with such big players in the game.

What should also not be forgotten is the position expressed by BlackRock regarding possible forks, and this opens up a completely new dimension in terms of how they think about it - which leads to the conclusion that at some point they may even try a fork of their own.
A spot ETF is convenient in many ways because certified organizations will be responsible for storing bitcoins, and large investors will have access to the market.
The SEC has spent many years closing the financial floodgates to prevent money from flowing into the cryptocurrency market, and with the opening of the spot ETF, a huge hole is opening. lol.
legendary
Activity: 3234
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~snip~
In any case, the only thing I wonder is the effect that the approval of an ETF in USA could have on the bitcoin price, otherwise it is ETF after all and that is not the way we want bitcoin to be adopted... so it isn't really something we want to be excited about.

If we look realistically at how an average Bitcoin investor thinks, then we don't need to look for any additional explanation as to why so much dust is being raised around this ETF. The whole thing revolves around the fact that most people are counting on BlackRock and other companies of that type to cause a big bull run, and all that remains after that is to sell BTC and take as much profit as possible.

Of course, these same people are counting on the fact that sooner or later the price will drop significantly again and that they will be able to repeat the whole process again, but the question is whether history will repeat itself with such big players in the game.

What should also not be forgotten is the position expressed by BlackRock regarding possible forks, and this opens up a completely new dimension in terms of how they think about it - which leads to the conclusion that at some point they may even try a fork of their own.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1389
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It's good to hear that the court wasn't convinced on how Bitcoin ETF is somehow less safe to investors than Bitcoin Futures. I thought the SEC simply doesn't want to regulate Bitcoin because it doesn't see it as a security, but this court case shows a different side of the story. Perhaps the SEC's consistent rejections of ETF applications have something to do with someone lobbying them to do so because Bitcoin can be a solid competitor to traditional stocks? Of course, some funds don't care and want in on Bitcoin alongside stock markets, but surely some might feel defensive.
If a Bitcoin ETF gets approved, whether it's that of BlackRock or Grayscale, it can be a major boost of confidence in Bitcoin's future.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Balchunas and Seyffart's optimism is based on solid knowledge of the industry.
In addition to that, some insiders, or someone who used to be an insider, share this optimism:


Bitcoin ETF “Approval Is Inevitable”: Ex-US SEC Chair Jay Clayton

Quote
Jay Clayton, the former Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressed confidence on the probability of the first spot Bitcoin ETF product getting approved in the United States. He said the retail investors are willing to gain access to the cryptocurrency while the large institutions with surveillance mechanisms like Blackrock want to provide the product to the retail investors.


My body is ready.
legendary
Activity: 3444
Merit: 10558
If so, I don't think SEC actually had anything to do with it.
SEC is still a government agency not an independent entity, so it should technically follow the same attitude US government has towards companies such as BlackRock. My argument is that this fact will affect their decision regarding approval of the ETF.
donator
Activity: 4732
Merit: 4240
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I don’t know who makes those odds or where they’re getting their info from, but to me it’s always been a question of when and not if. It’s been clear for quite some time now that crypto is going to stick around as a new asset class and investors have been hungry for ways to gain exposure in their portfolios. I think it happens before next summer almost certainly.
sr. member
Activity: 966
Merit: 433
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We have to wait and see what the impact of a spot etf approval in the U.S will be, it could attract institutional investors and take the price of BTC high, which will be good for speculators; but i'll still not call it a "win" for BTC in itself, because i can't recommend people to buy BTC through etf's that they don't control, the same way i'll never recommend storing BTC's in centralized exchanges.
After many mistakes with recommendations, I'd rather stand on the sidelines and not give them anymore. Why should I give another reason to be looked at as a swindler? Let them decide what is best for people.
The other day I was asked about the ETF, but I pretended that I was no longer interested in it. He replied that they would look into this issue on their own and make a decision in the same way.
I have an assumption such that they can play from the opposite. That is, when everyone is waiting for a price increase, but the opposite will happen. You need to somehow spread the crowd for money. Isn't that what big players do?
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1491
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It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

That's what I thought when I saw the price rise as soon as I heard the news. That there would be people buying just as the rally was ending, thinking that this was going to start a non stop rally, when there would soon be a dump.

Although many think this is big news, I wonder what the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF could add to Bitcoin in general? Just more and more speculation and price manipulation.

<...>

I don't want to be pessimistic, but we must prepare to see more volatility and drama in the coming months.

Probably something similar happened in 2021 and 2022 with leveraged positions, which help to rise faster but make them fall faster as well. They put bitcoin in a financial casino, moving it further away from being a day-to-day P2P payment system.

It is a question WHEN, not YES/ NO question. I agree with you that Bitcoin Spot EFT will be approved in the USA. People are only speculating when it will be approved a first time.

I agree.
legendary
Activity: 3738
Merit: 1708
Today the first 3 etfs were delayed, it was basically off by a few minutes for each but then there was nothing for like an hour or so for the blackrock etf. So people assumed since they weren’t delayed then they must be approved. But eventually they were also delayed.

And the market actually was spooked because it sold off on that event which we knew was quite common, an bitcoin etf getting delayed as usual. No idea why people shorted on the news which we all knew would happen.
hero member
Activity: 2254
Merit: 831
It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.
It is never wrong and the market repeats its many years. They react too fast with news and don't spend enough time to sit down, step back and think deeper a bit. That news about Grayscale lawsuit win against SEC does not directly lead to an approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. If they are calm enough, they will realize it.

Although the SEC lost the case to Grayscale, the acceptance or rejection of the ETFs is still at the discretion of the SEC and not any other agency. So it's not surprising to me that they continue to reject all ETFs proposals, including BlackRock's, which we were most looking forward to. But what's interesting is that they delayed it until March 2024 and that's also when the halving will take place. Therefore, on social network X, many conspiracy theories have appeared claiming that the SEC is also participating in market manipulation.
The win of Grayscale brings some hope for community but SEC are trying to delay their announcement on approval or rejection of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

There are some important scheduled days to look out. Pay your attention in middle of October this year for more events or dramas from SEC.

legendary
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1440
It also appears that the odds for approval might also rise higher after September. Uncle Gary is scheduled to appear in congress and be pressured to testify on what he is doing in office, being a regulator through enforcement without legal clarity.

The skeptical me is thinking that Blackrock is starting to use their political connections to force uncle Gary to sign the applications on the ETF before the end of 2023 hehehehe.



In what could be yet another tough face off with lawmakers, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler looks set to testify before two separate committees of the US Congress in September 2023. These hearings come at the back of the historic XRP lawsuit Summary Judgment and the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF lawsuit victory, both of which are huge setbacks for the US SEC during the Gensler regime.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-gary-gensler-testify-crypto-news/
hero member
Activity: 1792
Merit: 534
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It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

Although the SEC lost the case to Grayscale, the acceptance or rejection of the ETFs is still at the discretion of the SEC and not any other agency. So it's not surprising to me that they continue to reject all ETFs proposals, including BlackRock's, which we were most looking forward to. But what's interesting is that they delayed it until March 2024 and that's also when the halving will take place. Therefore, on social network X, many conspiracy theories have appeared claiming that the SEC is also participating in market manipulation.
legendary
Activity: 1680
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Although many think this is big news, I wonder what the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF could add to Bitcoin in general? Just more and more speculation and price manipulation.

These large companies do not really care about adopting Bitcoin because they are essentially profitable companies and all they seek is to achieve more profits in the first place by entering new markets and the last thing they are thinking about is adopting Bitcoin.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but we must prepare to see more volatility and drama in the coming months.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1344
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It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1018
Good News but what happened to the recent dump after Grayscale won the case against the SEC I mean Bitcoin ETF Approval will become a major milestone to get more investors, especially in the US Market.

when this really happens I think other countries will follow to make an ETF but in this case, Europe Already had one right just hope that Mr. Gary approve this
It's logic to say that the USA. has to follow European countries in approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. In Europe, the first Bitcoin Spot ETF was approve months ago and it is a big milestone for Bitcoin.

Latest changes in the USA. with more challenges on power of SEC and Gensler give us more hope that that nation will have its first Bitcoin Spot ETF.

Gensler will have to be testimonies in US Congress twice in this September. He will have to come to the Congress with lot of fear like a latest time he came there.
sr. member
Activity: 1386
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Yes, I read this news yesterday and First spot ETF approvals is possible very soon. SEC wants every firm works according to their wish and very possible that SEC will try to regulate the Bitcoin ETF even after it launched successfully. Congratulations to grayscale for winning case. currently Blackrock and other big companies like Vanceck, Wisdomtree applied for Bitcoin ETF and SEC has not approved anyone application. I don't think SEC will accept application this years because SEC is postponing every time and as far i think all application will be approved near Bitcoin halving and this will be new revolution in Bitcoin price..

In short term Spot Bitcoin approval is positive and and will bring more investors and fame to btc. bull season is not away after these application accept but I think in long term Bitcoin ETF will not give any positive results because people will not hold real btc which we store in our wallet and this will be same as CEX and we already warned that without holding in our own wallet we haven't full control over our btc.
hero member
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Somehow it feels disappointing to read that Spot ETF could be approved by the end of 2024, it's not even sure.
Excitement gone which traders must have realized is a short-lived bull. If news like this goes out after halving, it would have been one that will make spikes particularly Elon's X getting a crypto license. But the market is getting harsher, it almost gives hope to the new investors but now that it has dipped again, they will leave the market for good after losing some funds.
copper member
Activity: 1988
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Good News but what happened to the recent dump after Grayscale won the case against the SEC I mean Bitcoin ETF Approval will become a major milestone to get more investors, especially in the US Market.

when this really happens I think other countries will follow to make an ETF but in this case, Europe Already had one right just hope that Mr. Gary approve this
legendary
Activity: 1512
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"Hey, this is my big day to get rich!"
Sure, that happens, but we've never encountered that before, so you can't know with certainty, as if a large company became heavily invested in bitcoin. We're now talking about BlackRock, probably the largest financially company in the world, attempting to apply for an ETF.

I hold the belief that once bitcoin becomes integrated into the financial system, as indicated by the news, we will witness another level of bullish activity. If the system continues to advance in parallel with bitcoin, we could potentially see trillions flowing in.
hero member
Activity: 854
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There acceptance of BTC will increase more hype and the demand will be high and the price will be too.
Overall it will be a win win for BTC and it might really reach $150000 in 2025.
I am not too sure if BTC spot etf approval can be said to be a "win" for BTC. We preach not your keys, not your coins to people, and we all know that the right way to use BTC is when you control your keys, not when another institution manages it for you.

We have to wait and see what the impact of a spot etf approval in the U.S will be, it could attract institutional investors and take the price of BTC high, which will be good for speculators; but i'll still not call it a "win" for BTC in itself, because i can't recommend people to buy BTC through etf's that they don't control, the same way i'll never recommend storing BTC's in centralized exchanges.
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