Topic: SPOT bitcoin ETFs popularity : Will it result in ATH before end of 2024 ? (Read 229 times)

Can you (or anybody else) elaborate more on this? Doesn't the tax year in the US end on 31 December, with April being just a filing date? If so, how would selling after December impact the tax?
And are you referring to people selling at a loss to have a realised loss that could reduce the taxable amount, or to people selling with profit to take advantage of capital gains allowance (if there is one in the US)?

Looking at the monthly profitability chart, it doesn't seem like there is any strong pattern for March and April with median returns being positive but very modest.

The spot ETF approvals definitely accelerated Bitcoin’s recovery from the previous cycle’s low, but in doing so I feel like it has also extended the period we are in now. With mtgox needing to be digested, Germany selling out of nowhere and now war in the mix, I think we’ll see a delayed bull run. There is going to be a lot of tax selling come next March/April, so that may indeed be the final hurdle to clear. I’m expecting a face melting rally from May to October of 2025. We may see a continued melt up til then.

Bitcoin has always performed well even without the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs so i don't think we should be much concerned about the popularity that Spot Bitcoin ETFs are gaining because even with or without them gaining more recognition the price of bitcoin will still get a new ATH even if it may not occur this year again. Bitcoin has become so popular now such that news don't have much impact in the price again but the only thing is that with good news about bitcoin it tends to draw more investors to join in accumulating bitcoin especially those investors that are moved by news so when there is more investors the price skyrockets.

Blackrock and fidelity and others offering ETF for BTC is not the reason why we will see ATH, we always see ATH after the halving and this would be the reason why we will see it happen again. However, what we are seeing right now is the fact of how trends emerge, and ETF could be the trend for the next one and I agree people will like this ETF stuff. At the very least it would be people who have no idea how to buy their own bitcoin will end up using these ETF products to buy them, which will result with Blackrock buying more of it and we could benefit from this as well.

ETF must be just another way for taking bitcoin to more people and we can expect bitcoin to scale new heights just like how gold did with its ETF format. I expect ETF may bring differences in the volatile nature of bitcoin market somehow for sure.

Not true, the whole concept of the spot ETFs (as opposed to say futures ETFs) is the fact that issuers should, at least in theory, hold a 1:1 amount of bitcoins equating the nominal amount in the ETF units. So, taking any possible fraudulent actions aside, the demand for spot ETF units would in practice mean the same as demand for actual bitcoins, so price actions in one of those markets will affect the other.
And I don't think there would be much incentive to fake the number of bitcoins actually held by them. That would be a low-level fraud and easy to pick up by statutory financial audit.

There is the connection of the next ATH to these spot bitcoin etfs offered by the financial institutions like blackrock. But we have seen that every cycle, ATHs do really come but it's possible that this could be the contributing factor why it will be there.

So, every cycle we see some factors, trends and hypes that were done by the sources that produces inflows of big money in the market, specially for Bitcoin.

If the pattern for this cycle happens again and we'd another ATH, we should just take notice every factor that contributed on it just like the past.

In previous cycles we didn't have ETFs and bitcoin still hit ATHs but we can't deny the impact of ETFs this year. In this cycle, we saw Bitcoin make ATH before halving and if not the impact from ETF, then what made Bitcoin break its history?


Bitcoin ETFs have helped bitcoin adoption happen many times faster, we shouldn't deny that. As we have said many times before, once bitcoin becomes more popular and more people invest in it, its price will inevitably increase because demand will exceed supply and bitcoin ETFs are making that happen faster than ever.



You are not wrong in saying that for bitcoin to increase in price and reach a new ATH, we need a lot of factors. But for me, the only factor that will help bitcoin increase in price is the market having a large amount of money flowing into the market. And when it comes to cash flows, I see bitcoin ETFs playing the biggest role.

Hopefully in a quick time we can see the new ATH for Bitcoin.
But yes, what can I do because the price surge can not be said next month because the price of ATH which was previously also passed by an increase of up to $73,777.
Just enjoy while trying to have bitcoin with a greater amount than the current price before the ATH time is only reached than busy thinking when ATH happens and when to buy a good one.

I think so too. They may be propellers but not the real thing and just like you mentioned about a trend, I feel that's what the ETFs purpose was; to make investors have what to point to as the reason for the ATH we experienced. For me, there are so many factors that play a role in Bitcoin reaching a high and these spot Bitcoin ETFs are just one of them.

You never can tell because bitcoin has performed so well in the past before the approval of Spot bitcoin ETFs so the popularity they are getting now cannot detect if it will move bullishly and attain a new ATH but the only thing we should do now is to stay at alert from the news in the media because positive news and negative news will make some impact in the price of bitcoin so if we receive more positive news then the chances of bitcoin reaching a new ATH can come to reality soon even though we are just left with a couple of months before the year ends. Bitcoin is a volatile asset of which with the help of some positive news and more in-flow in the market capitalization can skyrocket the price to an incredible milestone so we can still expect the unexpected at any period of time.

They want to do it, but are they really doing it?
For instance, they were buying at 70k and all the way to it. That could as well be the top for this year.
The deal is, they are buying not knowing what the future will bring, so they might as well end up buying the ATH at some point.

Even if you're right and not all of the coins will be grabbed by ETFs, it may happen that most of them will. We may see the world where half of the real bitcoin supply is in the hands of a a few corporations, while the rest is being fed paper bitcoin.

With the existence of this bitcoin ETF, it does make the flow of money in bitcoin even greater, then some traditional institutional investors are also looking at how they can invest in bitcoin through the Bitcoin ETF, the more bitcoin continues to experience an increase in value, the more investors will continue to grow, the presence of ETFs provides a considerable opportunity for Bitcoin to experience a significant increase, especially in the next government, whoever is elected they have a narrative that will support this industry to develop much more broadly, this is very beneficial for all parties, not only short-term investment those who have long-term investment goals I think will benefit much more.

Yes because Bitcoin ETF getting popular would mean there are more people getting to know about Bitcoin and this is going to increase the adoption rate of Bitcoin. Bitcoin getting to a new highest price is not going to be determined by just one factor though as many other things have to come together to achieve this. Right now we have already completed Bitcoin halving which is one of the factors to bring a new Bitcoin highest price so things are getting in place for the market to become very bullish and Bitcoin ETF popularity is just pointing towards this facts. The more popular the Bitcoin ETF gets the more institutional investors it will be attracting to the cryptocurrency market and they would not be coming empty handed but with lots of their money and this will help in bringing lots of purchasing power to the market.

Approval of spot bitcoin ETFs by the United state SEC has always played an important role in projecting the price of bitcoin higher and the more the in-flow the higher the price of bitcoin so we should be very optimistic of some kind of bullish trends that can possibly lead to another ATH before the year ends since there have been promising news about bitcoin all over the internet and the media. Another factor that will spike more positive effect on the price of bitcoin is the upcoming United States elections which will be very beneficial to some short term investors and some big investors that would want to take profits from their investments if a new ATH is created.

Don't forget we hit ATH before the halving and the catalyst that led to that was the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. So far, the amount of money flowing into the market through ETFs is getting bigger and bigger, so we cannot deny their impact on bitcoin prices in the long term. Because the value of bitcoin will largely depend on supply and demand, and spot bitcoin ETFs are helping to increase demand for bitcoin. Meanwhile, the halving is just an event that makes bitcoin mining more difficult, it does not reduce the supply of bitcoin.

I do not deny the role of halving in creating the bull cycle, but I believe that bitcoin ETFs will contribute more to the upcoming bitcoin bull season because the demand for bitcoin will increase dramatically through them.

Lately I have received a lot of information that the price of Bitcoin will increase at the end of this year. I predict that the price of Bitcoin will increase in November but I cannot predict the exact date when the price of Bitcoin will increase to its all-time high. At the end of this year everyone will be excited about the prediction of the price of Bitcoin, along with the presidential election that will be held in the United States. Let's monitor the price of Bitcoin until the end of this year, hopefully the price of Bitcoin will really increase at the end of this year, and hopefully those of us who currently hold Bitcoin will get big profits at the end of this year.

the ETF's wont be doing the BUY HIGH of a ATH, they want to do the buy LOW of pre ATH and POST ATH(correction)

what will happen is that there are regions of the world where mining costs of now (650exa average) whom if mining in certain regions using the latest gen asics would have a mining cost of upto $300k, so those regions would still be willing to buy coin on the market upto $300k and still feel like a discount compared to mining
it would be those regions of individuals that would buy on the market to push the market to that level of 2025 ATH of todays estimate of $300k, and they would hoard that coin until the next market cycle (where mining difficulty and competition raises the underlying value & price after the correction 2026 2027) to the next cycles ath after 2028

however the ETF's are trying to only buy now at their own discount of under $70k of this cycle to hoard enough to cover the needs and demands of shares of current economics and have excess to meet the needs of near term economics until the next buying opportunity of the correction lows of 2026-27.. they are not likely to be part of the price push to ATH of $300k, they will pull out far before that knowing they can buy in the correction period

..
in short the guestimate is coins sold at say $150k plus before 2027 will be hoarded by new individual investors waiting for next cycle, where as coins sold below $150k would be savvi opportunist investors & etf's.. so not all coin sold in the oncoming bull will go to etf's

Yes, ETFs are popular, but is this really good for Bitcoin in the long run?

The way I see it, let's say they keep growing for another 4 years. After the next halving we'll probably see $300-500k bitcoin and a lot of OG holders, people who bought before the 2017 bull market will have sold their coins. Where will that coins be? All in one place, for instance held by Coinbase on behalf of an ETF.

How much will they hold at that point? 10%?

How will the distribution look?

30% lost, 10% held by ETFs, another 10% in hands of large institutions and only 10m held and traded with less than 1m left on exchanges?

While this definitely helps, I doubt it will be THE thing leading to an All Time High.  It happens every four years and while there is always a 'trend' being during that time frame, it does not mean it is the trend doing the charm.  An All Time High around the end of 2024 is pretty much to be expected around this point in time.  It has been the course of every cycle, it would not be weird if this repeats now.

We are only $8000 away from a new ATH. We had 6 months of consolidation with bears attempting to push the price lower. I think there’s a very good chance that we see a new ATH before the end of the year, yes. As you say, Spot ETFs are very popular, they will bring a lot of capital into Bitcoin that hasn't had access until now. We are going much higher