Peter's point is that the hardfork supporting miners are rational and will wait till there is certainty.
My point is that enough certainty may never come and they may take the risk and cross their fingers.
They've got too much invested to take such a risk. If they can't continuously stay ahead of Core in number of blocks produced, then their blocks will become orphaned when the Core chain becomes longer. That's a LOT of electricity to pay for, and no revenue to show for it. On top of that almost ALL miners that are signaling for Unlimited are signalling EB1, so any block larger than 1 megabyte will be orphaned by both Core AND the other Unlimited miners.
I agree with you. My point is that Miners may later choose to jump too soon and think they can either
by normal hash succeed or by creating "chain wars" where outside attack vectors are used to "hold back"
or attack the other chain. That is "allowable" in theory, but is not within the Consensus Mechanism.
Peter's comment was that Miners will wait, assuming they could wait forever, when in reality,
they need to move soon otherwise they may lose support over time. Everyday is a new day since it is
currently contentious. I think some Miners have itchy trigger fingers and may attempt a coup,
("Follow us or die!" mentality). If they are willing to wait forever potentially I would be amazed.
If CORE does implement anything, it will likely be a 2MB bump max IMO, and I don't think the BUers
would agree to that.
Actually, Core won't be able to reliably implement a 2MB bump if BU miners BOTH have more than 50% of the hash power AND maintain EB1. BU miners will continue to ignore the 2MB Core blocks as invalid, and will maintain a longer chain with blocks less than 1 megabyte. Since those smaller blocks will be "valid" Core blocks, Core miners would be forced to keep their blocks smaller than 1 megabyte if they don't want to waste their money mining orphaned blocks.
If Core has more than 50% of the hash power OR if BU miners increase above EB2, then EB miners won't have a choice about agreeing to it. With a larger EB, BU is already designed to accept blocks that are smaller than the EB.
With Core above 50%, their blocks will reach any AD depth and BU is already designed to accept any size block that reaches the AD.
The 2MB bump would be contingent that BU Emergent Consensus is dropped from their client, IMO.
I do not talk for CORE nor know anything about CORE, I am assuming based on past mentalities.
Peter's assumption of CORE capitulation assumes a Total Capitulation, which actually means that CORE's principals of Bitcoin's decentralization and trustlessness needs to be abandoned.
Nah. Unlimited is no less decentralization or trustless than Core. There is some concern that mining could become significantly more centralized if the blocks get too big for smaller miners, but no guarantee that will happen. As it is, resource availability (ASICs and cheap electricity) is going to push mining in that direction even in Core.
My concern of centralization is not with miners or developers, since there are
checks in place to prevent rogue people/miners. My centralization concern is when
the blockchain is so large that mass amounts of individuals can no longer maintain
them on their normal systems. When and if that occurs, the distributed ledger becomes
more centralized within locations that can be regulated by governments. For an example,
imagine BitTorrent, except the file is so big now that BitTorrent outsourced its storage
primarily to Google or Amazon Servers or other Corporate Servers. How long do you
think Bitcoin could resist governmental regulation in that future?
In this
any txs welcome,
constant on-chain scaling,
including for data storage
and not just btc financial txs future, we will need to centralize and trust corporations.
That is my centralization concern. I don't think we should hand our future to corporate
storage services. They will never be loyal to us, but only to the laws of their jurisdictions.
The same way PayPal shut down Wikileaks, those corporations will drop our chain ledger
at the request of the governments. We need for technology to catch up to us.