Very interesting attack vector I had not thought about. From what I understand the practice of SPV mining can reduce orphan rate from ~4% down to near ~0% from F2Pools claims.
So, if I understand correctly, SPV mining when nobody is broadcasting forking blocks reduces the orphan rate trom ~4% to nearly 0%.
However, SPV mining when non-SPV pools and miners
ARE broadcasting forking blocks increases the orphan rate from nearly 0% to nearly 100%, right?
This would give a very strong incentive to continue this practice despite this risk.
I guess that depends on how much non-SPV hash power is participating in the attack against the SPV pools? With 100% participation in the attack, there is 0 incentive to continue SPV mining. With 0% participation there is obviously still an incentive for SPV mining. I suppose the question that would be interesting to answer is "How much hash power needs to participate in the attack for SPV mining to overcome the current SPV incentive?"
Additionally, this form of attack would cause multiple panics like we are seeing now which would undermine our whole confidence in the bitcoin ecosystem which is not something non-SPV mining pools would typically be interested in.
Perhaps.
Or perhaps people would quickly adjust to trusting non-SPV mining, and SPV mining would die rather quickly.
If a non-SPV pool knows that the fork CAN happen in the future, and that they can profit from causing it themselves instead of just waiting for it to happen, wouldn't they WANT to do this? Either way it's likely to happen, and the panics will result. What's the benefit of NOT being the one that does it, especially if the pool thinks that any other pool might already be thinking about doing it?