SR Auction Price Speculation/Wager | Bitcointalksearch.org

akujin

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 25, 2014, 01:25:31 AM

Quote from: akujin on June 25, 2014, 01:04:56 AM

Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.

So if they put 700 at the buy price at stamp and click the Buy button, they're now a goofy daytrader? Grin

I would understand them paying at a high price if this is a rare item being auctioned... but it's not... so I'm sure most of them are there for a chance to buy it at a discount

JimboToronto

legendary

Activity: 4200

Merit: 4887

You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: akujin on June 25, 2014, 01:04:56 AM

Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.

akujin

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: hyphymikey on June 24, 2014, 06:45:31 PM

Quote from: akujin on June 24, 2014, 06:31:21 PM

If someone is willing to pay at a higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

Miners already have contracts out. The biggest miners, that aren't pools, will be lucky to make 100 coins a day. So that would take over a year with the difficulty rising like it is.

Buying slowly at the exchanges will be quicker, but the slippage is still horrible when people start front-running you. Meaning that the volume will pick up as you buy, the price will rise as you buy, and this will encourage other people to buy. So you will not get even close to dollar cost averaging about $750 per coin by the time you get 29K BTC.

There are ~12k btc to $700 at bitstamp alone. Someone could buy it NOW If he's willing to pay >=700. Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange? You could also spread your funds across the other exchanges to get it cheaper. And I checked, bitstamp's volume for the past 3 weeks and it's at ~170k btc. If they started buying since the SR auction issue started, they would have got the 3k btc that they want without causing much price bump..

BetMoose

sr. member

Activity: 372

Merit: 250

Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything

Quote from: Torque on June 24, 2014, 09:09:17 PM

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 07:10:05 PM

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really. Got it.

I never said we don't know - the host resolves the bet and provides logic for the resolution - that is how the site works.

The 'lastly' part I wrote is a site policy to make sure we never have any misresolved bets as a worst-case-scenario backstop.

FYI One of our team members is in contact with someone bidding on the auction so we expect that to be our private source - that said, we do not resolve the bet until after the host; maybe the host has similar information.

Check our FAQ for more.

Torque

legendary

Activity: 3710

Merit: 5286

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 07:10:05 PM

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really. Got it.

Swordsoffreedom

legendary

Activity: 2884

Merit: 1115

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Considering how long the Silk Road Auction has been in the news
Really only a few weeks but it feels like forever
I'll just be happy when its over and the coins sell at a premium Grin

BetMoose

sr. member

Activity: 372

Merit: 250

Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything

Quote from: Torque on June 24, 2014, 05:50:59 PM

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 05:14:07 PM

1 hour left for any wagers.

Before you try to swindle anyone else out of their money, please answer the fkn question:

Quote from: Torque on June 24, 2014, 02:12:43 PM

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 12:00:10 PM

It's looking like the consensus is between the $580-640USD/BTC range for the selling price. The sample size is still small at 15 people, but I'm expecting this crowd-prediction to be correct.

And with a supposedly closed door auction, how are you going to even know what the selling price is exactly?

Sorry missed this one - I am not the host of the bet but the general impression is that we will know the amounts. Further, if you noticed the contract decision logic, he wrote 'sum(total auction sales)', so as long as the government announces 'we've sold the coins, total auction proceeds were 21M', then you have your answer.

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

hyphymikey

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: akujin on June 24, 2014, 06:31:21 PM

If someone is willing to pay at a higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

Miners already have contracts out. The biggest miners, that aren't pools, will be lucky to make 100 coins a day. So that would take over a year with the difficulty rising like it is.

Buying slowly at the exchanges will be quicker, but the slippage is still horrible when people start front-running you. Meaning that the volume will pick up as you buy, the price will rise as you buy, and this will encourage other people to buy. So you will not get even close to dollar cost averaging about $750 per coin by the time you get 29K BTC.

akujin

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

If someone is willing to pay at a higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

hyphymikey

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

There is not the slightest chance these coins will go under market value. There will be lowball offers by people who think they will get cheap coins for some of the same reasons a few posters have already stated in this thread. There will also be people who are smart that realize this is a large amount of coins without slippage in price and with a stamp of approval from the Government will bring a higher than market price tag. These will be the bidders who win the auction. I suspect SecondMarket will bid over market value for every coin for sale since they haven't bought much lately and can now catch up and buy more without slippage. If you do not see this, you are either new to bitcoin or very naive.

JoseTito

newbie

Activity: 1

Merit: 0

How does this auction affect the price? Since it's directly sold not through an exchange will it not have any effect, just a speculative effect?

Torque

legendary

Activity: 3710

Merit: 5286

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 05:14:07 PM

1 hour left for any wagers.

Before you try to swindle anyone else out of their money, please answer the fkn question:

Quote from: Torque on June 24, 2014, 02:12:43 PM

Quote from: BetMoose on June 24, 2014, 12:00:10 PM

It's looking like the consensus is between the $580-640USD/BTC range for the selling price. The sample size is still small at 15 people, but I'm expecting this crowd-prediction to be correct.

And with a supposedly closed door auction, how are you going to even know what the selling price is exactly?

IIOII

legendary

Activity: 1153

Merit: 1012

I think current market price is the best predictor.

Slightly above that, I suppose, because it is an auction where nobody can see the other bids before final resolution.

I'm even more interested to see how the market moves after the auction.

BetMoose

sr. member

Activity: 372

Merit: 250

Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything

1 hour left for any wagers.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: CEG5952 on June 24, 2014, 02:47:48 PM

Quote from: Benjig on June 24, 2014, 02:40:25 PM

The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.

I have never heard of the auction of any seized property going for more than the mark to market value but it being rathermore the case that seized property goes under the hammer for firesale prices. We are not talking about rare works of art seized from Nazi loot stashes here. We are talking about lines of computer code in a cryptographic monetary system. Each 'unit' of which is as nondescript, intangible, and as interchangeable as the next.

I would suggest top price will be $520, which will be a 61.8% retracement of the recent $680 high, which would be the price that institutional money playing on the exchanges would be happy to take substantial long positions. Anything beyond that, and the big money will know that they could get a much better deal going down different avenues, not least of all strategically deploying their market clout in order to bring the market down.

nwfella

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1000

Well hello there!

I'm going to guess whatever bitstamp_rate is + 8%

honorem

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 0

200-220

BTCfan1

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

800-850

ajareselde

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: CEG5952 on June 24, 2014, 02:47:48 PM

Quote from: Benjig on June 24, 2014, 02:40:25 PM

The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.

agree, i think we will see something within the 500-550 range.
never in the history of seized property auction was the price same as market price.
im afraid if the person buying them decides to short them on stamp/btce instantly..

CEG5952

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Buy and sell bitcoins,

Quote from: Benjig on June 24, 2014, 02:40:25 PM

The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.

Topic: SR Auction Price Speculation/Wager (Read 2321 times)