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Topic: SR Auction Price Speculation/Wager (Read 2314 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
June 25, 2014, 01:50:34 AM
#25
Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.

So if they put 700 at the buy price at stamp and click the Buy button, they're now a goofy daytrader?  Grin
I would understand them paying at a high price if this is a rare item being auctioned... but it's not... so I'm sure most of them are there for a chance to buy it at a discount
legendary
Activity: 4158
Merit: 4811
You're never too old to think young.
June 25, 2014, 01:25:31 AM
#24
Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
June 25, 2014, 01:04:56 AM
#23
If someone is willing to pay at a  higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

Miners already have contracts out. The biggest miners, that aren't pools, will be lucky to make 100 coins a day. So that would take over a year with the difficulty rising like it is.

Buying slowly at the exchanges will be quicker, but the slippage is still horrible when people start front-running you. Meaning that the volume will pick up as you buy, the price will rise as you buy, and this will encourage other people to buy. So you will not get even close to dollar cost averaging about $750 per coin by the time you get 29K BTC.
There are ~12k btc to $700 at bitstamp alone. Someone could buy it NOW If he's willing to pay >=700. Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange? You could also spread your funds across the other exchanges to get it cheaper. And I checked, bitstamp's volume for the past 3 weeks and it's at ~170k btc. If they started buying since the SR auction issue started, they would have got the 3k btc that they want without causing much price bump..
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything
June 24, 2014, 09:42:59 PM
#22
Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really.  Got it.

I never said we don't know - the host resolves the bet and provides logic for the resolution - that is how the site works.

The 'lastly' part I wrote is a site policy to make sure we never have any misresolved bets as a worst-case-scenario backstop.

FYI One of our team members is in contact with someone bidding on the auction so we expect that to be our private source - that said, we do not resolve the bet until after the host; maybe the host has similar information.

Check our FAQ for more.
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
June 24, 2014, 09:09:17 PM
#21
Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really.  Got it.
legendary
Activity: 2884
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
June 24, 2014, 07:24:49 PM
#20
Considering how long the Silk Road Auction has been in the news
Really only a few weeks but it feels like forever
I'll just be happy when its over and the coins sell at a premium  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything
June 24, 2014, 07:10:05 PM
#19
1 hour left for any wagers.

Before you try to swindle anyone else out of their money, please answer the fkn question:

It's looking like the consensus is between the $580-640USD/BTC range for the selling price. The sample size is still small at 15 people, but I'm expecting this crowd-prediction to be correct.
And with a supposedly closed door auction, how are you going to even know what the selling price is exactly?

Sorry missed this one - I am not the host of the bet but the general impression is that we will know the amounts. Further, if you noticed the contract decision logic, he wrote 'sum(total auction sales)', so as long as the government announces 'we've sold the coins, total auction proceeds were 21M', then you have your answer.

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 24, 2014, 06:45:31 PM
#18
If someone is willing to pay at a  higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

Miners already have contracts out. The biggest miners, that aren't pools, will be lucky to make 100 coins a day. So that would take over a year with the difficulty rising like it is.

Buying slowly at the exchanges will be quicker, but the slippage is still horrible when people start front-running you. Meaning that the volume will pick up as you buy, the price will rise as you buy, and this will encourage other people to buy. So you will not get even close to dollar cost averaging about $750 per coin by the time you get 29K BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
June 24, 2014, 06:31:21 PM
#17
If someone is willing to pay at a  higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 24, 2014, 06:09:17 PM
#16
There is not the slightest chance these coins will go under market value. There will be lowball offers by people who think they will get cheap coins for some of the same reasons a few posters have already stated in this thread. There will also be people who are smart that realize this is a large amount of coins without slippage in price and with a stamp of approval from the Government will bring a higher than market price tag. These will be the bidders who win the auction. I suspect SecondMarket will bid over market value for every coin for sale since they haven't bought much lately and can now catch up and buy more without slippage. If you do not see this, you are either new to bitcoin or very naive.
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
June 24, 2014, 05:58:52 PM
#15
How does this auction affect the price?  Since it's directly sold not through an exchange will it not have any effect, just a speculative effect?
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
June 24, 2014, 05:50:59 PM
#14
1 hour left for any wagers.

Before you try to swindle anyone else out of their money, please answer the fkn question:

It's looking like the consensus is between the $580-640USD/BTC range for the selling price. The sample size is still small at 15 people, but I'm expecting this crowd-prediction to be correct.
And with a supposedly closed door auction, how are you going to even know what the selling price is exactly?
legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1012
June 24, 2014, 05:48:29 PM
#13
I think current market price is the best predictor.

Slightly above that, I suppose, because it is an auction where nobody can see the other bids before final resolution.

I'm even more interested to see how the market moves after the auction.
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything
June 24, 2014, 05:14:07 PM
#12
1 hour left for any wagers.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
June 24, 2014, 05:13:14 PM
#11
The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.

I have never heard of the auction of any seized property going for more than the mark to market value but it being rathermore the case that seized property goes under the hammer for firesale prices. We are not talking about rare works of art seized from Nazi loot stashes here. We are talking about lines of computer code in a cryptographic monetary system. Each 'unit' of which is as nondescript, intangible, and as interchangeable as the next.

I would suggest top price will be $520, which will be a 61.8% retracement of the recent $680 high, which would be the price that institutional money playing on the exchanges would be happy to take substantial long positions. Anything beyond that, and the big money will know that they could get a much better deal going down different avenues, not least of all strategically deploying their market clout in order to bring the market down.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1000
Well hello there!
June 24, 2014, 05:09:03 PM
#10
I'm going to guess whatever bitstamp_rate is + 8%
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
June 24, 2014, 04:54:24 PM
#9
200-220 Embarrassed
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 24, 2014, 04:51:16 PM
#8
800-850
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin
June 24, 2014, 04:49:37 PM
#7
The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.

agree, i think we will see something within the 500-550 range.
never in the history of seized property auction was the price same as market price.
im afraid if the person buying them decides to short them on stamp/btce instantly..
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
Buy and sell bitcoins,
June 24, 2014, 02:47:48 PM
#6
The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.

Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me.
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