Topic: Stability (Split from Bitcoinica&#039;s announcement thread) (Read 2731 times)

Quote from: Seal on May 29, 2012, 02:34:56 AM

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months. And I'll offer my own anecdote. I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all. Nothing against MtGox. I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins. My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

My current position is that it's better to buy bitcoins at any price rather than speculate - if the price goes down, buy more.
I chickened out with many of my bitcoins at $4.20 and then moved the $s to Bitcoinica - I could have kept them safely encrypted on my computer and just bought more to mitigate any dip in price.
Instead I'm now waiting in limbo.

I guess I should have added that in addition to saving and using bitcoins, I'm also accumulating more. Though, like you, I regret not doing this more over the past few months. For a while I was accumulating some from buying back after sells I had made since the $7.2x top, but I hadn't put much new money in until a few weeks ago and I plan to buy some more in the coming days. I definitely feel better now that my bitcoins are out of the exchanges and in offline and physically backed up wallets. I was stung a little from this bitcoinica debacle, but thankfully I had enough good judgement to not put very much in there, though it'd be nice to get it back.

dancupid

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Quote from: proudhon on May 29, 2012, 10:08:54 AM

Quote from: Seal on May 29, 2012, 02:34:56 AM

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months. And I'll offer my own anecdote. I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all. Nothing against MtGox. I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins. My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

My current position is that it's better to buy bitcoins at any price rather than speculate - if the price goes down, buy more.
I chickened out with many of my bitcoins at $4.20 and then moved the $s to Bitcoinica - I could have kept them safely encrypted on my computer and just bought more to mitigate any dip in price.
Instead I'm now waiting in limbo.

proudhon

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Quote from: Seal on May 29, 2012, 02:34:56 AM

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months. And I'll offer my own anecdote. I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all. Nothing against MtGox. I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins. My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

Seal

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I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

muyuu

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Quote from: muyuu on May 27, 2012, 11:25:49 AM

This is pretty good at telling the story: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

It does look good, but before accepting it as accurate, I'd like to know how do they calculate it and where do they get the data from...

So MtGox has a 20% lower market share than last year? in their page they claim "over 80%" with data being from July 2011.

That's right. Gox's market share has slipped that much, mostly due to the volume it has lost from Bitcoinica going down.

Are you not familiar with Bitcoincharts?

The data comes from the API feeds from all these exchanges: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Thanks. Are these APIs somewhat consistent? I knew the graphs, pretty much always in the first results from search engines, but I didn't know where they got the information from.

muyuu

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This is pretty good at telling the story: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

It does look good, but before accepting it as accurate, I'd like to know how do they calculate it and where do they get the data from...

So MtGox has a 20% lower market share than last year? in their page they claim "over 80%" with data being from July 2011.

muyuu

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Quote from: muyuu on May 25, 2012, 07:12:38 AM

Quote from: muyuu on May 24, 2012, 10:54:39 AM

By the way, isn't BTC remarkably stable lately? I thought it was going to be doom and gloom without Bitcoinica.Volume is decent too.

You have got to be kidding. Volume is in the Crapper.

Outside MtGox I'd say volume is even higher now than last month.

Which is great.

It is true that Gox's market share seems to be eroding.

We'd need time to see a trend. We definitely have less volume than last month in MtGox, and in other exchanges as far as I can see there's comparable volume or even better volume.

MtGox's volume chart is atrocious and seeing trends there is hard, partly because volume is dominated by peaks.

You can see the general trend here http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_trades.html (2 months) and to see the peaks go to mtgox.com click on the upper chart and expand back the whole month. The volumen graph scale is terrible, starting in -10K for some reason despite there being no such thing as negative volume, but if you move your mouse over it and see numbers, you can get a general idea.

I have an account in Intersango and as far as I can see the bid-ask volumes are higher than last month. I check regularly but I cannot see a proper way to really compare. It would be very interesting to have this data and that of other exchanges so we could have a scientific measure of market liquidity outside of MtGox.

imsaguy

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Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

I think we're going to remain stable for a while.

Colors make me important, right?

Clipse

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Lemminwinks, GO TO THE SPARROW KING.

JusticeForYou

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Quote from: notme on May 25, 2012, 11:52:01 AM

Quote from: JusticeForYou on May 24, 2012, 11:30:31 AM

Quote

I also said this can take long, but its not a question of IF only WHEN

I like your technical analysis. But, couldn't this be said about anything? It's not IF the world will end, it's WHEN.

No, it can't be said about anything. For example: It's not IF BTC_Bear will take it up the ass, it's WHEN. Or: It's not IF everyone will burst into flames, it's WHEN. Not everything is inevitable.

LOL, what are we talking about here, fingers, dongs, gerbils, etc... I might be able to narrow the 'TIMEFRAME' for you.

But then by your own admission: "not everything is inevitable" would invalidate most Technical Analysis, welcome to the club.

Now, about those gerbils.

notme

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Quote from: JusticeForYou on May 24, 2012, 11:30:31 AM

Quote

I also said this can take long, but its not a question of IF only WHEN

I like your technical analysis. But, couldn't this be said about anything? It's not IF the world will end, it's WHEN.

No, it can't be said about anything. For example: It's not IF BTC_Bear will take it up the ass, it's WHEN. Or: It's not IF everyone will burst into flames, it's WHEN. Not everything is inevitable.

Clipse

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Quote from: bulanula on May 25, 2012, 11:17:53 AM

Quote from: muyuu on May 25, 2012, 11:17:00 AM

Quote from: proudhon on May 25, 2012, 10:57:38 AM

Quote from: muyuu on May 25, 2012, 11:17:00 AM

you are right that there is good internal bitcoin market strength.

But stability will soon be gone...

There is not going to be a return of volatility like there was a year ago.

There is too much capital in the BitCoin economy now to allow for volatility like a year ago, it is beginning to function like a real currency, the arbitrage bots have helped stabilize price discovery and there are plenty of other places for speculators to go instead of the price of coins.

That said, for a currency it is pretty volatile with 1-3% movement in a 24 hour period being fairly common.

I agree. I think if the price is going to go up, it's going to be slow and over a period of many, many years.

I think we still need to pass the test of the first halving in coin production.

Hard to predict the psychological effect of that, and the real effect of having less coins entering the economy.

Indeed. Can't wait to cash out Dec 2012 !

Say what? If you think its going to increase BTC value by halving coins, why the hell would you cashout just when it gets more profitable? lol

That is the time you should buy more before and hold/sell after.

bulanula

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Quote from: proudhon on May 25, 2012, 10:57:38 AM

Quote from: proudhon on May 25, 2012, 10:57:38 AM

you are right that there is good internal bitcoin market strength.

But stability will soon be gone...

There is not going to be a return of volatility like there was a year ago.

There is too much capital in the BitCoin economy now to allow for volatility like a year ago, it is beginning to function like a real currency, the arbitrage bots have helped stabilize price discovery and there are plenty of other places for speculators to go instead of the price of coins.

That said, for a currency it is pretty volatile with 1-3% movement in a 24 hour period being fairly common.

I agree. I think if the price is going to go up, it's going to be slow and over a period of many, many years.

I think we still need to pass the test of the first halving in coin production.

Hard to predict the psychological effect of that, and the real effect of having less coins entering the economy.

Indeed. Can't wait to cash out Dec 2012 !

muyuu

donator

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

you are right that there is good internal bitcoin market strength.

But stability will soon be gone...

There is not going to be a return of volatility like there was a year ago.

There is too much capital in the BitCoin economy now to allow for volatility like a year ago, it is beginning to function like a real currency, the arbitrage bots have helped stabilize price discovery and there are plenty of other places for speculators to go instead of the price of coins.

That said, for a currency it is pretty volatile with 1-3% movement in a 24 hour period being fairly common.

I agree. I think if the price is going to go up, it's going to be slow and over a period of many, many years.

I think we still need to pass the test of the first halving in coin production.

Hard to predict the psychological effect of that, and the real effect of having less coins entering the economy.

proudhon

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Activity: 2198

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you are right that there is good internal bitcoin market strength.

But stability will soon be gone...

There is not going to be a return of volatility like there was a year ago.

There is too much capital in the BitCoin economy now to allow for volatility like a year ago, it is beginning to function like a real currency, the arbitrage bots have helped stabilize price discovery and there are plenty of other places for speculators to go instead of the price of coins.

That said, for a currency it is pretty volatile with 1-3% movement in a 24 hour period being fairly common.

I agree. I think if the price is going to go up, it's going to be slow and over a period of many, many years.

sunnankar

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Quote from: naima53 on May 24, 2012, 11:26:23 AM

you are right that there is good internal bitcoin market strength.

But stability will soon be gone...

There is not going to be a return of volatility like there was a year ago.

There is too much capital in the BitCoin economy now to allow for volatility like a year ago, it is beginning to function like a real currency, the arbitrage bots have helped stabilize price discovery and there are plenty of other places for speculators to go instead of the price of coins.

That said, for a currency it is pretty volatile with 1-3% movement in a 24 hour period being fairly common.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

sorry sorry another topic, I put tongue into the anus ..

Another Naima53 saying of which I have been previously unaware, and without which I find I cannot now live. Thank you again, my fine Russian friend Grin

muyuu

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Quote from: muyuu on May 24, 2012, 10:54:39 AM

By the way, isn't BTC remarkably stable lately? I thought it was going to be doom and gloom without Bitcoinica.Volume is decent too.

You have got to be kidding. Volume is in the Crapper.

Outside MtGox I'd say volume is even higher now than last month.

Which is great.

Clipse

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