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Topic: Stable Exchange Rate? (Read 15948 times)

legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
October 07, 2010, 01:05:53 AM
#54
Massive quantity of volumes are exchanged in a few days in a row. Possible slight movement in price.

I also noticed the high activity rate for the last 5 days or so and the appearance of a few new highly active users. Perhaps bitcoin community growth has fueled the volume? Or not, we can't be sure anyway.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1022
October 06, 2010, 06:29:13 PM
#53
Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading?
I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others.

How do you interface your auto trading program with MtGox? Do you simulate keyboard input or is there  a less clumsy way of doing it?

MtGox is easy:  it's all JavaScript, which means the code that handles login, buy, sell, add, withdraw is publicly visible, available for inspection and study.  It uses HTML form values, HTTP cookies and JSON data.  Any web programmer worth his salt knows how to use those.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1001
bitcoin - the aerogel of money
October 06, 2010, 06:24:47 PM
#52
Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading?
I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others.

How do you interface your auto trading program with MtGox? Do you simulate keyboard input or is there  a less clumsy way of doing it?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1022
October 06, 2010, 03:55:23 PM
#51
Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading?

I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others.

legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 06, 2010, 06:57:05 AM
#50
I agree that the automated trading helps providing liquidity.

At the same time, there is accumulation happening overall in the btc market , with a breakout to the upside more likely than a decline.

On by the way, idont hold large positions, I am not talking the market up. I just offer my technical analyst experience for perspective.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2010, 06:18:29 PM
#49
Correct.

Biggest resistance is at 0.062. There is a 10,000 BTC+ sell order at that level. If this can be broken, then there is little resistance (=few sell orders) until 0.064
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
October 05, 2010, 06:16:08 PM
#48
The bitcoin market has picked up in volume massively over the past 48 hours. We are almost at an all time high volume.

Let's see that sign this will bring...

https://mtgox.com/trade/history

High volume! Not much fluctuation in price, for now.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2010, 06:00:39 PM
#47
The bitcoin market has picked up in volume massively over the past 48 hours. We are almost at an all time high volume.

Let's see that sign this will bring...

https://mtgox.com/trade/history
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 04, 2010, 03:07:06 PM
#46
Agree, if psychology and confidence in bitcoins would still be good during this crash, traders and BTC investors would step in big time and buy at cheap prices, similar to the May 6 flash crahs
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1001
October 04, 2010, 03:05:03 PM
#45
--> foreeverdamaged
You are right that with 1 million bitcoins the market would crash, but to do that, he would get less than 0.02 for his remaining 960,000 bitcoins and for most of them even less..


And there is no certainty that even that even such a hard crash would keep the market price down.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 04, 2010, 02:45:24 PM
#44
--> foreeverdamaged
You are right that with 1 million bitcoins the market would crash, but to do that, he would get less than 0.02 for his remaining 960,000 bitcoins and for most of them even less..
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1001
bitcoin - the aerogel of money
October 04, 2010, 04:02:54 AM
#43
Quote
A guy brought lot of bitcoins on mtgox and it didn't exactly goes as planned.

How do you know what his plans were? Maybe it went exactly as planned. Maybe he knew that 30,000 BTC wasn't enough to crash the market and he was only trying to lull traders into a false sense of security.

Or maybe those 30,000 were a weather balloon.

Maybe next time he will dump 1 million bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 02, 2010, 05:31:32 AM
#42
..and the low volatility and stable exchange rate helps increasing the stake .. :-)
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
October 01, 2010, 05:48:03 PM
#41
volatility is low predominantly because psychology is balanced. Market participants are split between the belief of a rally or a decline.
volume is only a consequence of the former.
like with any other global market we are in a consolidation/ sideways pattern which is almost always accompanied by low volume.
only if expecation balance changes in any direction, volume will pick up substantially.

Example:
more people think BTC will increase in value. Some of them want to anticipate that and buy coins. To get the amount they want the bid prices up above last weeks high. Others see that and jump on the boat, driving prices further up. Some others whi did not trade for a while find out later and are worried to miss the rally and bid prices further up... Volume rises a lot..

The inverse happens to the downside.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
October 01, 2010, 04:47:04 PM
#40
34209.3 bitcoins lot.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1022
October 01, 2010, 04:43:11 PM
#39
A guy brought lot of bitcoins on mtgox and it didn't exactly goes as planned.

define "lot"?
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1010
October 01, 2010, 04:35:25 PM
#38
agree that it won't last forever.

We will get a breakout soon. IMO it will be on the upside. But clearly, downside is also possible.
if we could trade options, a strangle would work brilliantly in this point, because volatility is so low.

Volatility is only low because volume is low.  Volatility will go through the roof the instant we get any amount of volume.


Volume used to be lower and volatility was higher, this is what I would expect. Why do you think the opposite? Something to do with bitcoin in particular?

No, just comparing relative to just about any other global market Smiley  The average bitcoin USD-equivalent daily transaction volume (150000 BTC * 0.07 USD, rounding up generously) is less than $10,000/day.  That's all bitcoin transactions, including maintenance transactions such as moving bitcoins from one wallet to another.  Even compared to the smallest pink sheet stock, BTC dollar volume is tiny.

That's a drop in the bucket, for anyone who calls themselves an investor Smiley

I consider the current BTC volume quite low.  Market prices would be easy to manipulate, as its current, tiny, size.

A guy brought lot of bitcoins on mtgox and it didn't exactly goes as planned.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
October 01, 2010, 04:33:49 PM
#37
Is there some way of manipulating that does not reduce to paying more than you need to to buy bitcoins or getting less than you could for selling them? Those two sound like gifts to me.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1022
October 01, 2010, 04:22:11 PM
#36
agree that it won't last forever.

We will get a breakout soon. IMO it will be on the upside. But clearly, downside is also possible.
if we could trade options, a strangle would work brilliantly in this point, because volatility is so low.

Volatility is only low because volume is low.  Volatility will go through the roof the instant we get any amount of volume.


Volume used to be lower and volatility was higher, this is what I would expect. Why do you think the opposite? Something to do with bitcoin in particular?

No, just comparing relative to just about any other global market Smiley  The average bitcoin USD-equivalent daily transaction volume (150000 BTC * 0.07 USD, rounding up generously) is less than $10,000/day.  That's all bitcoin transactions, including maintenance transactions such as moving bitcoins from one wallet to another.  Even compared to the smallest pink sheet stock, BTC dollar volume is tiny.

That's a drop in the bucket, for anyone who calls themselves an investor Smiley

I consider the current BTC volume quite low.  Market prices would be easy to manipulate, as its current, tiny, size.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
October 01, 2010, 02:36:51 PM
#35
agree that it won't last forever.

We will get a breakout soon. IMO it will be on the upside. But clearly, downside is also possible.
if we could trade options, a strangle would work brilliantly in this point, because volatility is so low.

Volatility is only low because volume is low.  Volatility will go through the roof the instant we get any amount of volume.


Volume used to be lower and volatility was higher, this is what I would expect. Why do you think the opposite? Something to do with bitcoin in particular?
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