Topic: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 (Read 559 times)
Looks like you're right. I apologize for the duplication of the topic, I did not find it before I made my translation. Probably my topic should be removed or closed? I ask the board of moderators.
Thanks for the translation, but it was created a year ago:
Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019
This topic is a double!
Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019
This topic is a double!
I made my analysis here: Assumed monthly statistics on registered accounts of bitcointalk.org (2009-2019). Below is abstract of my analysis, if you want to get full details, please visit my thread.
ABSTRACT
(1) Despite the rise of bitcoin to around $14,000, monthly registered accounts in last few months are too far away from all time high at 238433, in Dec. 2017.
(2) Minimum and maximum are 3 and 238433, in Nov. 2009, and December 2017, respectively.
(3) 50% of months (from Nov. 2009 to June 2019) have total monthly registered accounts in the range from 2611 to 24472 (the interquatile range).
(4) 50% of those months have total monthly registered accounts above or below 10691 (the median).
(5) The lowest and highest medians (of months for each year) found at 148 and 66895, in 2010 and 2018.
(6) From peaks on 20/12/2017, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts decreased 91.3%, and 81%, respectively, on 15/12/2018.
(7) Since 15/12/2018, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts increased 159%, and 7.8%, respectively, on 1/6/2019.
* Details of points (6), (7), please read the second post of this thread.
< ...>
Plot:
(1) Despite the rise of bitcoin to around $14,000, monthly registered accounts in last few months are too far away from all time high at 238433, in Dec. 2017.
(2) Minimum and maximum are 3 and 238433, in Nov. 2009, and December 2017, respectively.
(3) 50% of months (from Nov. 2009 to June 2019) have total monthly registered accounts in the range from 2611 to 24472 (the interquatile range).
(4) 50% of those months have total monthly registered accounts above or below 10691 (the median).
(5) The lowest and highest medians (of months for each year) found at 148 and 66895, in 2010 and 2018.
(6) From peaks on 20/12/2017, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts decreased 91.3%, and 81%, respectively, on 15/12/2018.
(7) Since 15/12/2018, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts increased 159%, and 7.8%, respectively, on 1/6/2019.
* Details of points (6), (7), please read the second post of this thread.
< ...>
Plot:
Plot
Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.
Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin.
Interest, yes, but I'm sure a lot of the registrations are alt accounts looking to participate in bounties and campaigns.Normally I wouldn't give out merits for a data compilation like this, but I found this interesting and never would have sought out the numbers on my own. Thanks to OP for compiling them. I'm not surprised about the 2017 data since the registrations increased as bitcoin shot toward its all-time high. There probably were a lot of people being drawn in just out of interest based on what the price was doing--and after the crash, during the time when bitcoin was stuck in that $3500 range, registrations went down significantly. Makes sense.
We are far from new ATH. We are now still in end of 2015 or early 2016.
Given how volatile and unpredictable bitcoin is, we're really not that far away. It's quite possible that bitcoin could shoot past $20k at some point this year (but I'm hoping it doesn't).
I was actually expecting bigger fluctuation during the time Bitcoin boomed and fell back down again. It would be interesting to look at the data in which people signed up during the boom of Bitcoin and how many users are still active several months after. Whether we are retaining users because they are interested in discussion of Bitcoin or because they wanted to get in on the action and get rich and as soon as it dropped down again they bailed.
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here..
We are far from new ATH. We are now still in end of 2015 or early 2016.
Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.
Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Data taken from the OP, then converted.
Assumption:
I assumed that those statistics are for first days of months.
Assumption:
I assumed that those statistics are for first days of months.
Code:
. list
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| id reguser day month2 year date week2 month quarter |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 100000 14 4 2013 14apr2013 2013w15 2013m4 2013q2 |
2. | 2 500000 31 3 2015 31mar2015 2015w13 2015m3 2015q1 |
3. | 3 93682 1 1 2017 01jan2017 2017w1 2017m1 2017q1 |
4. | 4 950176 1 2 2017 01feb2017 2017w5 2017m2 2017q1 |
5. | 5 962853 1 3 2017 01mar2017 2017w9 2017m3 2017q1 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
6. | 6 977613 1 4 2017 01apr2017 2017w13 2017m4 2017q2 |
7. | 7 993420 1 5 2017 01may2017 2017w18 2017m5 2017q2 |
8. | 8 1017398 1 6 2017 01jun2017 2017w22 2017m6 2017q2 |
9. | 9 1050131 1 7 2017 01jul2017 2017w26 2017m7 2017q3 |
10. | 10 1091142 1 8 2017 01aug2017 2017w31 2017m8 2017q3 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
11. | 11 1133396 1 9 2017 01sep2017 2017w35 2017m9 2017q3 |
12. | 12 1179583 1 10 2017 01oct2017 2017w40 2017m10 2017q4 |
13. | 13 1269026 1 11 2017 01nov2017 2017w44 2017m11 2017q4 |
14. | 14 1366370 1 12 2017 01dec2017 2017w48 2017m12 2017q4 |
15. | 15 1557907 1 1 2018 01jan2018 2018w1 2018m1 2018q1 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
16. | 16 1782483 1 2 2018 01feb2018 2018w5 2018m2 2018q1 |
17. | 17 1894695 1 3 2018 01mar2018 2018w9 2018m3 2018q1 |
18. | 18 1992339 1 4 2018 01apr2018 2018w13 2018m4 2018q2 |
19. | 19 2079237 1 5 2018 01may2018 2018w18 2018m5 2018q2 |
20. | 20 2171230 1 6 2018 01jun2018 2018w22 2018m6 2018q2 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
21. | 21 2248912 1 7 2018 01jul2018 2018w26 2018m7 2018q3 |
22. | 22 2318752 1 8 2018 01aug2018 2018w31 2018m8 2018q3 |
23. | 23 2373136 1 9 2018 01sep2018 2018w35 2018m9 2018q3 |
24. | 24 2418498 1 10 2018 01oct2018 2018w40 2018m10 2018q4 |
25. | 25 2457852 1 11 2018 01nov2018 2018w44 2018m11 2018q4 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
26. | 26 2492979 1 12 2018 01dec2018 2018w48 2018m12 2018q4 |
27. | 27 2516483 1 1 2019 01jan2019 2019w1 2019m1 2019q1 |
28. | 28 2538716 1 2 2019 01feb2019 2019w5 2019m2 2019q1 |
29. | 29 2554918 1 3 2019 01mar2019 2019w9 2019m3 2019q1 |
30. | 30 2573850 1 4 2019 01apr2019 2019w13 2019m4 2019q2 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
31. | 31 2591760 1 5 2019 01may2019 2019w18 2019m5 2019q2 |
32. | 32 2616232 1 6 2019 01jun2019 2019w22 2019m6 2019q2 |
33. | 33 2638589 1 7 2019 01jul2019 2019w26 2019m7 2019q3 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
2 500 000 user has been registered 08, 2018, 01:26:27 PM
*December 08
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
It was bound to happen, the supply of people interested in cryptocurrencies isn't limitless. There's also competition in the form of discord/reddit/telegram/twitter/facebook. It'd be better to compare real cumulative volume across all cryptocurrency exchanges to get a clearer picture of actual interest in Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies.
BTW, forum ad stats also give a rough view of forum activity: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats
So many accounts register that don't even make one post though. The stats make this forum look a lot more active then it truly is. Factor in how many people make multiple accounts and the number of actual new users is kinda low.
What a plot!
Code:
. list, abb(30)
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| id week reguser day month2 year date week2 month quarter |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 1 100000 14 4 2013 14apr2013 2013w15 2013m4 2013q2 |
2. | 2 2 500000 31 3 2015 31mar2015 2015w13 2015m3 2015q1 |
3. | 3 3 1000000 11 5 2017 11may2017 2017w19 2017m5 2017q2 |
4. | 4 4 2000000 3 4 2018 03apr2018 2018w14 2018m4 2018q2 |
5. | 5 5 2500000 8 1 2019 08jan2019 2019w2 2019m1 2019q1 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin.
I don't know about this. I started in crypto early 2017 but I did not register here until October. The interest when I joined was not so much in bitcoin but interest in making money from airdrops. Many of the airdrops back in 2017 would require hunters to register and comment on their ANN. 
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here..
Most of them were looking to spam and probably farm accounts too.
I think most have realized that it's so hard to do it under the merit system
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here..
Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
Jump to: