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Topic: [STATS] Bitcointalk stats vs BTC value chart - UPDATE 01/09 - analysis - page 2. (Read 5895 times)

legendary
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updated the firstpost.

I also have a "smooth" version (I used for each date the average from the previous, the current and the next day; this is done except for the BTC value)




do you like this one better? (better readability?)
legendary
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zby
legendary
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Merit: 1001


Based on the stats of this forum, I created a nice chart.
What we can see, it correlates nicely with the bitcoin price.

However, some other conclusions can be made:
1) the number of new posts stays relatively high compared to the previous bitcoin price spike in june 2011.
The data is still "fresh" but if this trend continues, we could say that the overall interest ('talk') about bitcoin has gone up and will stay at this high level.
2) a lot of new members during price rally's, but this trend never continues. So the number of new members could maybe indicate a bubble effect?
3) the number of page vieuws hit new records after the price spike. Sadly, we can't compare to the june 2011 price spike (no data). What could be the explanation?

Any thoughts?


(If you want to do data mining, check the excel-file here: http://www.sendspace.com/file/atkufw
And maybe donate something for the effort Wink )


bots

bitcointalk is now a target
sr. member
Activity: 280
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bluemeanie
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
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I believe a LARGE part of the booms come because its now summer.
Sell in May and go away.
legendary
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can you plot the BTC/USD exchange rate on top of that graph?

-bm


yes, if someone has an excel sheet with the daily BTC-price Smiley
full member
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Just remember correlation doesn't imply causation.
sr. member
Activity: 280
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bluemeanie
can you plot the BTC/USD exchange rate on top of that graph?

-bm
newbie
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We are here to stay, definitly.
full member
Activity: 141
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I believe a LARGE part of the booms come because its now summer.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!

"Smooth chart" ( average of day-1, current_day and day+1)

Logarithmic version:


Based on the stats of this forum, I created a nice chart.
What we can see, it correlates nicely with the bitcoin price.

However, some other conclusions can be made:
1) the number of new posts stays relatively high compared to the previous bitcoin price spike in june 2011.
The data is still "fresh" but if this trend continues, we could say that the overall interest ('talk') about bitcoin has gone up and will stay at this high level.
2) a lot of new members during price rally's, but this trend never continues. So the number of new members could maybe indicate a bubble effect?
3) the number of page views hit new records after the price spike. Sadly, we can't compare to the june 2011 price spike (no data). What could be the explanation?

Any thoughts?


(BTC price added. Used data weighted average MTGOXusd from bitcoincharts.com)
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