You are wasting your time making a group to vote for each other. You can at most get 7.5% of your SP (Steam Power) holdings back as rewards+payouts (on average) per year.
The rep power of your group is limited to your aggregate SP holdings. So even if you vote for each other in a perfect way (and this is complex to explain how to do due to numerous factors), then you will not on average get more than 7.5% per annum ROI. Of course not counting up or down votes you might get from others.
And holding SP has a huge risk, because you can't cash it out except over a 2 year period. Thus you risk losing all your SP in a declining price spiral.
this anouncement that they got hacked is gonna steem down the price fast...red dildos to come
))
The downward price will remind those who converted to SP, that they need 2 years to remove their investment.
Those who invest and don't convert to SP, are losing 0.19% per day due to debasement.
The problem with Steemit is they have no income model, thus once the price is not going up, there is no valuation where it has an P/E ratio. And the system is designed to incentivize cashing out. I just don't see where the buying demand will come from except for a bubble while the price is moving up fast. There is no incentive to HODL this token.
If one is holding SP, you are I suppose betting that Steemit will manage some transition either to be acquired by another social network at some valuation per signed up user, or that Steemit will be able to develop an income model. We've seen that estimates of revenue per user from
advertising for Facebook average around $15 per user per year.
So with a million signed up users, this will be $15 million annual income from advertising, so with a 20 P/E ratio then roughly a $300 million market cap (7.5% x $300m = $15 million divided by million users = $15 per user per year in payouts+curator rewards). At 3000 signups per day, they project a million signups (costing $10 per signup at least not including payouts) within 4 months.
But it is also not clear what the retention rate is given users on average won't earn that much from the site, and especially after the number of bloggers reach million users with only a $300 million market cap. In other words, at some realistic P/E ratio, then the payouts have to drop dramatically which means the usership might not be sticky, which then means the market cap valuation must be lower. And that begins the downward spiral because as market cap falls, then payouts fall, so usership should fall. Circling the toilet bowl all the way down.
Does anyone see any way this outcome can be averted? The math seems to show there is no way this can work out.
I am not an early adopter actually. I just started using Steemit 6 days ago:
https://steemit.com/@coinhoarderI don't care if people buy Steem or not. In fact, I suggest that you don't.... I sure didn't buy any STEEM.
I made posts and upvoted posts to earn what I have in my account, and I suggest you guys do the same too. It is easy money... I made about $115 so far.
So $20 per day incentivizes you to spend some of your time on that site. How many minutes a day you spend to earn that $20? (Readers note that he is a college student)
Will you stay when that drops to $20 per year per my calculations above?
