Stimulus checks perfect storm for massive crypto bull run? - page 2.

Yatsan

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on April 20, 2020, 09:17:33 AM

Quote from: jseverson on April 20, 2020, 01:13:48 AM

That being said, I'm sure a vast majority of the money would be spent on essentials.

That might be true, but think of how many stimulus checks actually went out (I don't know the number, but with everyone getting one it has to be huge). I have no doubt that quite a few recipients did indeed spend theirs on bitcoin or some other crypto. And this is the US we're talking about, where tons of people live well beyond their means with credit card and other debt weighing them down.

Stimulus checks has been out since last week, so if it is an another reason for the bitcoin to increase then we should be seeing a massive market movement right now but lets turn off this scenario. Stimulus checks is amounting $$,200, if you convert it to your local currency then you might find that the stimulus check is quite big, actually it is bigger than what we are getting with ours as a relief. After reading of some articles about stimulus, there are 150 million residents that might qualify for the stimulus check that has been distributed, so if we put that on calculation, that's a $180 billion. woah.

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on April 20, 2020, 09:17:33 AM

Quote from: Lucius on April 20, 2020, 09:01:03 AM

It may be a little ridiculous that the whole crypto world has started spinning over whether US stimulus checks will inflate the BTC price, as if $2 trillion would automatically go to BTC. According to some research, 80% of Americans have reportedly heard of BTC, while about 6.2% own it (probably in their Coinbase accounts).

Again, those stats may well be correct, but with bitcoin's market cap where it is how much collective buying would have to take place in order to spike the price just a little? I don't have the answer to that either, but I think the free money did have an effect.

It's not quite safe to assume that we are going to have a bounce because of this, even a billion dollars put in the market can make a huge pump.

Lucius

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on April 20, 2020, 09:17:33 AM

Again, those stats may well be correct, but with bitcoin's market cap where it is how much collective buying would have to take place in order to spike the price just a little? I don't have the answer to that either, but I think the free money did have an effect.

It all comes down to the question of whether that money could cause the price of BTC to go up? I personally do not see any significant increase, the crypto market has simply recovered from a sharp decline just like the stock market. We can also ask the question "what percentage of Americans will invest their money in stocks or maybe in gold?"

I will not completely neglect the effect that such a move by the US authorities has not only on the economy, but also as a psychological effect. The situation is a little different in Europe, the term stimulus package is more used here, which generally does not go to the way that ordinary people receive direct financial assistance, but more on "moratorium on mortgage payments for people adversely affected by the COVID-19 crisis+stop evictions and guarantee water, electricity and internet to vulnerable households."

I also can't say how much money needs to be pumped into the crypto market for a major change to happen, but at this point it seems that supply and demand are fairly balanced, which is consequently reflected in the price.

Quote from: stompix on April 20, 2020, 10:12:05 AM

Hmmm...your American is a little too much Française Grin

In this case, we can conclude that there is no one who has admitted it publicly (at least not in the forum). Could it be a Frenchman who moved to the US, or maybe a Canadian who went in the same direction? Or maybe France is giving same amount of money Roll Eyes

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Quote from: Lucius on April 20, 2020, 09:01:03 AM

It may be a little ridiculous that the whole crypto world has started spinning over whether US stimulus checks will inflate the BTC price, as if $2 trillion would automatically go to BTC. According to some research, 80% of Americans have reportedly heard of BTC, while about 6.2% own it (probably in their Coinbase accounts).

I'm skeptical of those numbers and Coinradar can claim anything they want, nobody is looking how and if they have conducted that survey at all. And of course, those BTC would have to be in their Coinbase accounts otherwise we don't have enough addresses with a balance to fit those numbers, and that only with the US.

That aside, people who pray for this bull run are thinking Americans that don't have bitcoin yet will rush to buy and invest.
Of course, this theory has flaws of its own but, people need something right now..anything!
Anyhow, the price will tell if we have something going on, but right now is not really showing anything like that.

Quote from: Lucius on April 20, 2020, 09:01:03 AM

Since there is already an open thread on a similar topic I have found at least one American who publicly admits that he has invested the entire amount in BTC Cool

Quote from: galsen1 on April 17, 2020, 07:08:07 AM

I moved the entire 1200 to coinbase pro. Just waiting on money to clear. I will put everything on BTC. it's free money why not gamble with it.

Hmmm...your American is a little too much Française Grin

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The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: jseverson on April 20, 2020, 01:13:48 AM

That being said, I'm sure a vast majority of the money would be spent on essentials.

That might be true, but think of how many stimulus checks actually went out (I don't know the number, but with everyone getting one it has to be huge). I have no doubt that quite a few recipients did indeed spend theirs on bitcoin or some other crypto. And this is the US we're talking about, where tons of people live well beyond their means with credit card and other debt weighing them down.

Quote from: Lucius on April 20, 2020, 09:01:03 AM

It may be a little ridiculous that the whole crypto world has started spinning over whether US stimulus checks will inflate the BTC price, as if $2 trillion would automatically go to BTC. According to some research, 80% of Americans have reportedly heard of BTC, while about 6.2% own it (probably in their Coinbase accounts).

Again, those stats may well be correct, but with bitcoin's market cap where it is how much collective buying would have to take place in order to spike the price just a little? I don't have the answer to that either, but I think the free money did have an effect.

Lucius

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It may be a little ridiculous that the whole crypto world has started spinning over whether US stimulus checks will inflate the BTC price, as if $2 trillion would automatically go to BTC. According to some research, 80% of Americans have reportedly heard of BTC, while about 6.2% own it (probably in their Coinbase accounts).

Well, if we consider that there are 330 million Americans and that 6.2% is roughly 20 million times $1200 = $24 billion. It is a big money, but as I write few times, many Americans will not receive checks because there are various restrictions, it is not about sharing money without criteria.

Since there is already an open thread on a similar topic I have found at least one American who publicly admits that he has invested the entire amount in BTC Cool

Quote from: galsen1 on April 17, 2020, 07:08:07 AM

I moved the entire 1200 to coinbase pro. Just waiting on money to clear. I will put everything on BTC. it's free money why not gamble with it.

20kevin20

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Theoretically, as more money enters the market, its value grows. But this one is different and I'm really wondering what the consequences of this free money giveaway will be.

There are two things going on:
1. USD will lose its purchasing power
2. BTC will have new investors with out-of-nowhere printed USD.

What happens if we combine the two? The purchasing power loss of USD leads to an increase in BTC, right? Just like gold booms when a recessions is coming in for the same reason. So let's say BTC goes from $7k to $10k due to purchasing power loss. When new USD is printed out of nowhere and given to American citizens, those who will use the stimulus checks for BTC purchases will add value to BTC. Let's say BTC now grows from $10k to $13k.

Am I missing something? If this happened infinitely and we printed money out of nowhere continuously, would that make BTC extremely valuable or am I missing something..?

Sadlife

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This shows how corrupt the banking system truly is, you cannot print money and assign value to it to buy stocks, treasures and assets and hand it out as stimulus checks. This is like stealing in broad daylight but people such as Institutional, stock investor doesn't realize that. If the Fed continues their criminal act then the most likely scenario, investors would start to convert to other safe haven asset such as Gold or precious metals or even Bitcoin.

Wexnident

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Stop trying to boost the stimulus check as a reason for the increases in BTC price. It isn't reasonable tbh. Yes, there are a lot of talks about idiots rallying outside their houses saying the Covid-19 news is a lie, but really, a lot more people are sensible than them and would probably spend the stimulus checks on things they'd actually require to survive ( not saying that those who traded where those people in the rallies). Look it up, various news sites are announcing what people are using their stimulus checks on. @extasies source is one and it's honestly not that hard to find.

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Quote from: exstasie on April 20, 2020, 04:02:36 AM

Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Direct deposit stimulus money started on the week on April 13th, paper checks go out April 24th. Each person in the USA who qualifies will get about $1200.

I noticed an uptick on the BTC graph (Apr 16th) after the direct deposit date. I am guessing the panic selling Covid-19 is over and the price will just go up now especially with people getting free money.

That uptick was probably because the stock market spiked upwards, not because people put stimulus money into BTC. I'm sure a few people did, I just don't think it was a big factor.

There has apparently been more stimulus money spent on food than anything else: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/15/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-used-pay-back-friends-buy-food-and-gas/5136304002/

I also expect a lot of people are saving it to pay rent next month, or back rent for April.

Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Combine this with the world getting out of lockdown at maybe the end of this month (April) and maybe we are due for a massive bull run?

My thoughts on that:

Quote from: exstasie on April 20, 2020, 03:22:53 AM

With BTC following the stock market so closely, these factors may become relevant:

The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick (and large) bailout.
Earnings season is here: Earnings are set for their biggest dive since late 2009 — and it gets worse from here
I have a nagging suspicion that economic and social restrictions are being relaxed too soon, and we'll see a second wave of infections sooner than the market expects.

same thoughts here. i dont think many people will invest on crypto in this pandemic. they will secure first their basic needs for at least couple of months. the future is still hazy to most of us.

415jeremy

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Some crypto influencers said they were going to spend their trumpbucks on cryptocurrency investments, but I'm not sure that it will lead to real bull run. Halving will affect the market more.

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It all depends on public opinion. If people will believe that investing in crypto right now is a safe harbour -- there will be a significant pump to main cryptos. At least it's more likely that people will hold, since they won't need to exchange to cover daily expenses.

exstasie

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Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Direct deposit stimulus money started on the week on April 13th, paper checks go out April 24th. Each person in the USA who qualifies will get about $1200.

I noticed an uptick on the BTC graph (Apr 16th) after the direct deposit date. I am guessing the panic selling Covid-19 is over and the price will just go up now especially with people getting free money.

That uptick was probably because the stock market spiked upwards, not because people put stimulus money into BTC. I'm sure a few people did, I just don't think it was a big factor.

There has apparently been more stimulus money spent on food than anything else: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/15/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-used-pay-back-friends-buy-food-and-gas/5136304002/

I also expect a lot of people are saving it to pay rent next month, or back rent for April.

Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Combine this with the world getting out of lockdown at maybe the end of this month (April) and maybe we are due for a massive bull run?

My thoughts on that:

Quote from: exstasie on April 20, 2020, 03:22:53 AM

With BTC following the stock market so closely, these factors may become relevant:

The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick (and large) bailout.
Earnings season is here: Earnings are set for their biggest dive since late 2009 — and it gets worse from here
I have a nagging suspicion that economic and social restrictions are being relaxed too soon, and we'll see a second wave of infections sooner than the market expects.

Harkorede

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I would object that most people would be thinking about buying crypto just because of the stimulus checks, almost all items have seen a massive hike and these people are also aware that the lockdown could be on for months to come. These stimulus check would not even be enough to keep their sustenance if the lockdown doesn't end anytime soon, buying bitcoin would be the less of their worries.

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Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Direct deposit stimulus money started on the week on April 13th, paper checks go out April 24th. Each person in the USA who qualifies will get about $1200.

I noticed an uptick on the BTC graph (Apr 16th) after the direct deposit date. I am guessing the panic selling Covid-19 is over and the price will just go up now especially with people getting free money.

Combine this with the world getting out of lockdown at maybe the end of this month (April) and maybe we are due for a massive bull run?

My opinion is contrary to you. I feel that the market is growing unreasonably. Currently, Americans are still very much unemployed and apply for benefits because of unemployment in very large numbers. There have been more than 20 million applications for unemployment benefits in the US so far, and cases in the US are still growing. In addition, countries with many cases have not been able to reopen their economies such as China, Italy, Spain, etc. blue. It is going backwards and becoming very ridiculous. I guess that in the next 1-2 weeks, the market will return to red.

jossiel

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There was a news that tells people who received the stimulus bought bitcoin.

But we will never know that the panic selling due to covid19 will end at the end of this month. There's still unknown move what will be the plans after this month. Let's expect that there will still be a massive panic sell if the announcement is about extension and longer lockdowns.

Quote from: cafetools on April 19, 2020, 09:36:10 PM

Combine this with the world getting out of lockdown at maybe the end of this month (April) and maybe we are due for a massive bull run?

No one knows, halving is by May and that's we're all thinking that will push the markets up.

avikz

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It is very much possible to see a bull run starting from the 2nd week of May. But don't expect that the free money provided by government is going to reach the crypto market because it is a luxury at this moment. However, those who were selling of their crypto hoardings due to the lack of money in hand, may be stopped for good reasons! If the demand stays in the same regime, we might see a spike in the bitcoin price!

However, I don't think we will see anything that fast because the condition of the market is still uncertain! But slowly it will come back on track if the mass don't need to spend their bitcoins for fiat to take care of their daily expenses!

jseverson

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There's data to suggest that it's already starting to happen:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/data-suggests-some-americans-may-be-buying-crypto-with-stimulus-check

That being said, I'm sure a vast majority of the money would be spent on essentials. Investing is a luxury for most households at the moment, especially since we don't know when it'll blow over.

cafetools

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Direct deposit stimulus money started on the week on April 13th, paper checks go out April 24th. Each person in the USA who qualifies will get about $1200.

I noticed an uptick on the BTC graph (Apr 16th) after the direct deposit date. I am guessing the panic selling Covid-19 is over and the price will just go up now especially with people getting free money.

Combine this with the world getting out of lockdown at maybe the end of this month (April) and maybe we are due for a massive bull run?

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