Topic: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity - page 9. (Read 5755 times)

There's no need to remove those points.
Even taking into account earlier points, even before first halving, S2F models has quite a decent forecasting accuracy.
This means probably, yes, exchanges were faking volumes, but price wasn't altered on a statistical meaningful way.
Regarding the maximum price possible once the "red dot bull run" starts, well just look at the past: in 2017 market peaked at 3 times the "slower" stock to flow model price, and has rarely been above that threshold. I think I could see that as an upper "limit" to closely monitor.

I would put PlanB's S2F into perspective by removing/mitigating data from 2011-2014: those years data were too inaccurate (exchanges faking volumes). Starting from 2016 is much better IMO and the model still works perfectly. My question is when the red dot will explode, because it will, where will it push the price? Will there be enough buyers to sustain the model? These are my thoughts recently.

Don’t get too excited for this price action, says PlanB, as the real bull run has yet to start!




https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1330469160980242432?s=21

Stock to flow has a model price really close to current market price. From now on not only the rise is going to be quicker, but also overshoots relative to model prices are possible.

Almost two months have passed since last update and everything is behaving nicely:

Stock to Flow Cross assets:



Stock to Flow:



Price is pretty much in line. Market price il 16,200 with a S2F_{463 days} modelling a 19,900 USD price: 23% of appreciation is well within the cointegration interval needed to keep it reliable.

 A very nice podcast interview with PlanB on this new #Phase5 of bitcoin:

Bitcoin Has Entered Phase 5 with PlanB, Jeff Booth & Preston Pysh





This Podcast sums up many of the theme i recently cared about:
#Stock to Flow
MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’
Winklevoss The Case for $500K Bitcoin


Is Bitcoin entering a new era? I think it is one of the most interesting topic right now.

New Plan B website online:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1277930300530667521?s=20


There you can find all his articles, with link to local translations, interview and podcasts.
Definetly a resource to link.

Whoever that guy (PlanB) is, with such charts he totally discredits himself

I don't know about other fellow posters, but looking at this I can't help catching myself thinking that he is selling snake oil. You know, the kind that ZeroHedge has been selling for over a decade already, complete doom and gloom. It may be enjoyable and amusing to read but if you come to base your actual life choices and decisions on the information presented there, you are in for trouble, probably big time


Sounds pretty ironic, and not far from the truth for the majority of wannabe nouveaux riches

PlanB on twitter started a series of interesting, yet quite surprising tweets:


https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1274664455817826306?s=20

Really?
At face value this tweet states that being SPX and BTC correlated and cointegrated, the fed pumping money in the system is actually also pumping BTC too.
 
In the second tweet computes BTC level based on current SPX level using this new model:




https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1275108641763471361?s=21

BTC looks like a leveraged bet on SPX.
Of course if we go further up, both BTC and SPX are getting explosives.
What does it means? Are we going to be all rich?
Wrong.
You can be a millionaire and be poor, if a liter of milk costs 10,000 USD.
Have you ever been in Venezuela, a lot of billionaries there who just throw money in the street, because they are too rich to take the bills from the pavement.

Do you know how bankruptcies happen?
Slowly at start, then allo fo a sudden, Weimar Style:



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1275422699385507842?s=20

This is what it is going to happen if FED keeps pumping USD in the system.
(remember that Bitcoin is not about getting rich quickly, is about not getting poor slowly).
What do these tweet means?
We knew that BTC was not correlated with SPX. A lot of studies and analysis confirmed that. Yet PlanB comes with the statement the SPX is correlated.
I did myself this analysis a few times  and I didn't came up with those numbers. So he must have a different explanation for this.
I will try to find out and detail here.

PlanB is playing harsh against Vitalik, also continuing demystifing his models:

Vitalik tweeted this:




https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1272240013363855361?s=20

PlanB was ready to answer this (blunt) criticism:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1272436030097031169?s=20

PlanB is continuing his campaign trying to clarify some misconceptions about his latest models.

Today he tweeted:




https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1271555833130815488

As we see he marked the first red dot (the second one is expected soon.
Still, we have to find the narrative for this 5th phase.

One of the most important tweet  bt @100trillionUSD answering the most debated question: Why isn't demand factored in the Stock to Flow model?





https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1268610182793228288?s=20

Of course, you have a right to allocate in terms of any philosophy that you like or if you believe that your allocation lines up with your view of the world, your timeline and your other various personal circumstances...

but I don't agree with your nonsense about gold being more of a long term than bitcoin or that they necessarily serve differing purposes.  You can frame the situation like that all that you like, and if your world view is that you need to prepare for some Armageddon scenario and physical gold might come handy in that, then you allocate some of your value into that burdensome shiny nonsense.

If you are viewing either gold or bitcoin as a possible hedge against the dollar then that might be another investment scenario and in that case gold could reasonable be concluded to be redundant to bitcoin to the extent that it actual serves as any kind of meaningful hedge against the dollar (which might be a decent leap in faith, too, since it has been so paperized during the years).

Regarding your long term short term nonsense, I agree with that framework to the extent that anyone is investing in shitcoins... bitcoin is not a shitcoin, so we can dispose of that framework in terms of bitcoin.  Since I consider bitcoin to be a long term investment, that does not mean that I am not going to hesitate to get the fuck out of bitcoin if circumstances change in such a way that bitcoin no longer seems like a long term investment.  Merely because someone invests into an asset for the long term and with a long term time horizon does not mean that they lose their discretion to get the fuck out of the asset if the fundamentals or even world environment changes.

Your seemingly dumbass bearish investment thesis in regards to bitcoin presumes that there is some kind of meaningful vulnerability in the internet or alternative communication channels that can be used by bitcoin, and that is just nonsense, but if someone actually believes that to be an actual bitcoin vulnerability, they could still invest in bitcoin, and if they were to see such communication channels becoming an issue then get the fuck out of bitcoin before other people notice such issue.. Currently there is no such issue and we are not even close to such an issue, that is part of the reason I am taking such a harsh tone to the preposterousness of your bearish bitcoin investment thesis.



Who the fuck cares if people do NOT plan very well?  That should not affect the goal that any investor should have in order to attempt to plan their investments and to tweak them from time to time, as needed.  Just because people are not good at planning or investing does not mean that each of us should not strive (for our own good) to plan ahead.  Yeah, if you do not want to plan ahead merely because a lot of others fail to accomplish such planning, then that is your dumbass choice.

By the way, there is a concept of information asymmetry, and of course, if you plan ahead, then you are more able to take advantage of information asymmetry because you are prepared for it.. and that is a place where preparation meets opportunity.. in other words, making your own luck.  Not everyone is going to get lucky in life, but those who prepare have way better odds of running into some "luck" from time to time.



Bullshit.

Of course, rich people have a lot of advantages over poor people, but frequently rich people will fuck things up pretty badly too because they take their already richness for granted.

One of the quasi-secrets of being rich is learning how to live within your means, and sure the more poor that you start out the more challenging will be your situation to improve your lot and to generate investment capital and to be able to create situations in which you have savings and that you are even able to invest whether in bitcoin or in some other assets (stay the fuck away from gold.. if you know how to buy and secure bitcoin.... hahahahaaha).

Okay, let's not derail this thread anymore

So a few final words to sum it up. It is not like you should choose only Bitcoin or only gold. To repeat, that depends on your investment horizon. If you work on timeframes like decades, I would opt for gold, on shorter timeframes I would choose Bitcoin. But that doesn't mean that you can't use both for shorter and longer timeframes. These are different timeframes, and thus they don't need to be mutually exclusive

The other point to keep in mind is that there are not many people who can purposefully plan so far into the future (like one in a million). To make sense of it, you have to be rich and very well off, as well as have walked up the timeframe ladder (from shorter to longer terms). Conversely, if you are as poor as a church mouse, a timeframe of a single year may be well beyond your planning horizon

I do agree with you JJG an bkbirge, the internet is not even necessary to trade with bitcoin:

[Total privacy Bitcoin]: off grid Transactions LoRaWan/goTenna

I do agree this is a corner scenario, where probably trading bitcoin wouldn't may be the first issue (rather than finding enough food to pass the night), but may be an uber-nerd wet dream (and I am actually thinking about assembling this setup coupled with a Blockstream Satellite receiver 2.0).

 

Not really a counter argument but more of a nuanced mitigation of the argument...
https://cryptomoneyteam.co/2020/05/21/bitcoin-could-be-more-resilient-to-global-electric-failure-than-banks/

sure.. bitcoin is mostly internet.. but not exclusively internet, and really there are not too many scenarios to presume large scale internet outages of such a scale to make bitcoin NOT work.

In recent years, I have focused on making it my practice to NOT plan my life around events that have low probabilities of happening, but instead to do the bulk (vast majority) of my planning and preparations for more likely scenarios.. has served me quite well to focus in such a way.


Outcome is not the same if there are pockets of access or even time periods of outages versus whole world outages.


Yep.. it could... but again, not too likely whatever the fuck you are speculating about.


I don't question that total outage would have a big impact.  But I am not going to assume getting to total outage very easily or under any kind of straightforward path, even if we have had a pretty BIG event in recent times with a virus and a seeming over-reaction and ill-focused reaction that is likely going to continue for some time, we still have a hard time getting to large scale internet outages that you would like to presume.  


You mean a solar pulse?  Hm?  


Well that might cause some people to only put 1% or 10% in bitcoin rather than larger allocations.

So fucking what?

No one should be putting 30% or 50% or some other stupid ass large amount of preparation into 1% scenarios.. that is going to get them to the poor house quickly... dumb asses.

If you are reluctant and you give some weight to outlandish scenarios, then you might temper down your investment in bitcoin from 10% to 5%, but it should not lead you to go to 0%... that would be retarded.. and sure there are retarded people out there, and they are likely not prepared for much of anything, including the upside scenarios in bitcoin.

By the way, I have no problem with preparing for both downside and upside in bitcoin, and all of us should prepare for both directions, but lame as fuck to be suggesting that anyone preparing for up in bitcoin is not adequately preparing for down, too.





I doubt that gold is necessary... but sure, maybe have some gold, but does not seem necessary.  

Good to have some cash and sure assets in a variety of places and other prepper stuff such as food, property and maybe a gun and some bullets and other stuff like that... ... don't go overboard but have some of those things.  Yes.


Of course, corona virus has revealed quite a few supply chain vulnerabilities, but does not mean do not invest in bitcoin or to invest in gold... you are devolving into a bit of nonsense, and maybe we are starting to exhaust this topic.. for now?
 

Internet down means Bitcoin is down too, as simple as it can be

It may be down for you personally or more globally, temporarily or more permanently, but the outcome will be the same, and it can have pretty ugly consequences if it is to stay. I really don't see any plausible reason why anyone would want to question that. It can happen tomorrow, it can happen in a year, or it can never happen, but just the possibility of it, which is real and palpable, should make every Bitcoin holder think twice. That's basically the reason why everyone should have ready cash on hand (gold is somewhere down the road). It is just common sense and street wisdom. Shit happens, and ironically, when it happens, we are more often than not caught completely off guard as the coronavirus pandemic has revealed abundantly clear

And?  

What is the vehicle for the supposed bitcoin doom and gloom?

Is it a software bug?

The internet gets shut down?

Governments are able to outlaw it?

How is bitcoin going to go down, exactly?  Is this doom to bitcoin coming soon, or you do not have a timeline for such bitcoin death?

Is this doom and gloom for bitcoin coming during our lifetimes or even in the next 50 years or even 10 years?

You are saying that we should be investing in gold right now, or you are not saying that?  You realize that gold has supposedly been going to pump forever, but really have not seen it in the last 20 years, right?  Has there been any gold pump, yet?  Don't get too excited about the last 14 years, because if you account for inflation, gold has not really done shit, even if you see a doubling of its dollar value. that ain't shit.


In other words, if you cannot come up with some decent timeframe for the supposed decline of bitcoin, then bitcoin is going to continue to have value gravitate into it and to remain a good investment for all peeps, and who gives any shits if bitcoin dies in 50 years or 100 years or some other unspecified time period, when either we will be dead or we can address that supposed threat model at that future time.

In other words, if you cannot be specific about some kind of reason or some kind of timeline for bitcoin's supposed death, in spite of the currently strong fundamentals and strong price prediction models that include stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoptions based on metcalfe and networking effects, then currently bitcoin seems to be in the position to continue to be a great investment in which everyone should consider getting the fuck off of zero and trying to get somewhere in the ballpark of 1% to 10% of their quasi-liquid investment assets into bitcoin rather than hypothesizing about some non-specific doomsday scenario that has about a snowball's chance in hell of actually happening or interfering with the current BTC investment thesis.

Go ahead with your presentation of your purported bitcoin is dead/dying thesis (and gold is better...blah blah blah), deisik.  The ball is in your court.  I am waiting.  You got anything or are you too busy (distracted) looking at some shitcoin chart?   

I came late replying to this, and I think JJG summarised (well, I would rather say he actually expanded) the answer I had in mind.
Bitcoin is better than gold in so many ways that in the long term it will strip gold, and ultimately every other SoV of their financial value, leaving them only to their respective industrial value.

This is what is already happening today: negative rates and CB’s going brrr all around the world are sending fiat money south: some of those (ARS anyone?) is doing that faster than other, but all of them are, USD included (slower than all the others admittedly) as you can easily deduct from XAU increasing in value every day.

It is not going to happen overnight, but if you are reading these lines you are in a position of advantage to be ready when this is going to happen.

I agree with all of this

And I think no one would argue that Bitcoin is better than gold in most all of everyday circumstances. With that said, however, I don't think that anything would be able to beat gold before Bitcoin has long been beaten out of the picture, and not just as a store of value but completely wiped out -- in case things go massively awry. That's probably a sufficient reason why gold is better, and will always be better than Bitcoin as a store of value on longer timeframes. In fact, Bitcoin is quite fragile, while gold, physical gold, is virtually indestructible