I'm not an expert, but I will share some links here about Stock to Flow ration which seldom got any attention.
(1) An Explanation of Stock-to-Flow, and How it Applies to Bitcoin
(2) Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity
I forgot if it was you but someone on this forum posted that there was no correlation. He explained that we saw the same king in the mobile phones industry with trends following the same patterns but being totally unrelated.(1) An Explanation of Stock-to-Flow, and How it Applies to Bitcoin
(2) Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity
What I noticed is that before the spike happened just at the halvening, this time it happened a few months before, so I wouldn't draw any conclusion yet.
We also have to take into consideration that there's no COVID-19 scare prior to the halving in 2016. Of course we have seen massive downturn but the factors are all different, either FUD or some kind of manipulation. But this time it's different, not just crypto is affected by all traditional global markets are seeing the effects of the said scare.
So it might be just a total coincidence that we are seeing similar patterns prior to the halvening in 2016. So yeah, it's hard to draw conclusions.
