Stock trader joining bitcoin. Targets and projections.

YipYip

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 29, 2014, 10:43:00 AM

Quote from: btc-owl on May 29, 2014, 10:29:58 AM

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 10:47:18 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

When do you estimate PP or eBay will make any announcements?

When the patent on their electronic payment system goes through Grin

Done ...NEXT Cheesy

ibankbitcoins

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

610 target hit, right on the money. Now let see where the market takes us. I am guessing upupup!

bitcoinsrus

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: btc-owl on May 29, 2014, 10:29:58 AM

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 10:47:18 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

When do you estimate PP or eBay will make any announcements?

When the patent on their electronic payment system goes through Grin

btc-owl

newbie

Activity: 47

Merit: 0

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 10:47:18 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

When do you estimate PP or eBay will make any announcements?

ibankbitcoins

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Quote

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

That is like saying, you will eventually die. You just don't know when. lol.

BitchicksHusband

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 255

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 11:24:52 PM

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 10:47:18 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

Near-term good news events like integrations of bitcoin into eBay / Paypal, assuming that sort of thing occurs (and I think it's inevitable), should not be considered outside or "separate" from the logistic model. They are just dominos lined up and waiting to fall, according to a model where each domino knocks down two more (yielding a doubling time of 90-100 days). And there are still a LOT of dominos left standing, more than anyone will reach within 2 years at the rate we're going.

We went almost $30 a day for 5 days before stalling. As long as we keep getting ≈$150/week in June, it's looking like a bubble.

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 10:47:18 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

Near-term good news events like integrations of bitcoin into eBay / Paypal, assuming that sort of thing occurs (and I think it's inevitable), should not be considered outside or "separate" from the logistic model. They are just dominos lined up and waiting to fall, according to a model where each domino knocks down two more (yielding a doubling time of 90-100 days). And there are still a LOT of dominos left standing, more than anyone will reach within 2 years at the rate we're going.

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 10:01:18 PM

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ranlo on May 28, 2014, 09:30:49 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 08:03:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 28, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 28, 2014, 05:42:16 PM

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise. Cool

EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? Huh

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 28, 2014, 08:03:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 28, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 28, 2014, 05:42:16 PM

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise. Cool

EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? Huh

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Quote from: oda.krell on May 28, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 28, 2014, 05:42:16 PM

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise. Cool

EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? Huh

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 28, 2014, 05:42:16 PM

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

BitchicksHusband

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 255

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

ibankbitcoins

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 05:11:25 AM

Quote from: zby on May 28, 2014, 04:51:35 AM

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

Can you elaborate on that? or a chart to show me?

ibankbitcoins

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Quote from: zby on May 28, 2014, 04:51:35 AM

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

Can you elaborate on that? or a chart to show me?

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 01:38:41 AM

Hey bitcoiners:
This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.
If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.
Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.
fellow bitcoiner.

you are welcome
Edit: "concepts explained" in your blog is very good

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 02:49:51 AM

accurate, breaking above 610 will take some time. Or maybe bitcoin will just breeze through with with the strength from a few days ago.

I'm definitely going to follow this closer to see how your predictions end up turning out. For anyone else reading, keep in mind that resistance can be broken through with no problems if there's enough money flowing in.

ibankbitcoins

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

accurate, breaking above 610 will take some time. Or maybe bitcoin will just breeze through with with the strength from a few days ago.

Topic: Stock trader joining bitcoin. Targets and projections. (Read 2436 times)