Stop freaking out. We lost 2 weeks & returned to a sane exponential line.

ManBearPig

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Quote from: SuperHakka on April 11, 2013, 02:57:44 PM

yah, I has a theory that posters on here who only exclusively talk about bitcoin price do not love btc for what it is but are pure speculators out to make fiat. btc lovers will prefer to have stable btcusd as poster above said so that the retail and trade side of the bitcoin ecosystem can function properly. which business or consumer will transact with a currency that is rapidly appreciating by 100% every week?!?

Dirty cash whores. How dare they?

TsuyokuNaritai

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: shamntalk on April 11, 2013, 07:26:18 PM

Here comes the 'it's not a crash because it was once 2 bucks a pop' crew.
As predicted, right on time.

Yeah, that's the same thing.

shamntalk

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

BTC

Here comes the 'it's not a crash because it was once 2 bucks a pop' crew.
As predicted, right on time.

ManBearPig

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Exactly. Looking forward to making my daily chart tomorrow which will bear this out, if you pardon the pun.

eric345

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

Now I know how it feels to play high stakes poker Grin

. I'm used to swings, but not this large. The last 2 weeks was real rollercoaster.
Still up overall, so I can't complain.

420

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: bitcon on April 11, 2013, 05:30:47 PM

today i woke up $400k poorer than yesterday. but im still better off than half the world.

same here (the general concept)

bitcon

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1008

today i woke up $400k poorer than yesterday. but im still better off than half the world.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on April 11, 2013, 03:20:55 PM

One thing I've learned from this is how to spot sentiment changes. I had a bunch of theories about bubble indicators:

Usually level-headed bulls getting inexplicably arrogant and/or dogmatic
Former bears "seeing the light" for flimsy reasons or only because of their envy at bulls' fortunes
Bears no longer being predominantly trollish or incoherent thinkers or people missing some obvious fundamental point, but actually raising real potential concerns or actually seeming intelligent and un-arrogant
Double exponential growth on merely exponential fundamentals
Glut of speculators with basic knowledge gaps about Bitcoin
NEWS BLITZ CANNOT BRING IN NEW STRONG HANDS IN TWO WEEKS, because it takes longer than that to learn enough about Bitcoin to become a strong hand

I suspected all these might indicate froth, and it seems I was right. But the final blow-off happened too fast for me to do anything with that knowledge. Next time I'll sell 10% or so as soon as I see these signs.

What is interesting about this is that you're not the only one learning. More people will learn to read bubble activity in Bitcoin, and act accordingly (sell before it pops). And what happens when more people read a bubble and sell before it pops? The bubble doesn't happen in the first place, because the sellers keep it at bay!

So, the question is, where does that leave the sellers when they properly predict a bubble and sell, only to prevent it from happening? I guess we all cheer them on for saving the rest of us...?

noedaRDH

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Finding Satoshi

Quote from: nwbitcoin on April 11, 2013, 05:24:37 PM

You want stability? You can't have stability until we have price discovery - that is what we have now - also known as pretty bubbles! Wink

As soon as enough people have had their say about the value of bitcoin, people will start spending, and the price will stabilise - so that is at least another few years away!

You can't build a currency from scratch in only a few years, with no public support and no political agenda - it take time, but it will be worth it! Wink

Yes I totally agree. We will see more of these instability cycles for some time to come. We're still price-searching.

nwbitcoin

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

You are a geek if you are too early to the party!

You want stability? You can't have stability until we have price discovery - that is what we have now - also known as pretty bubbles! Wink

As soon as enough people have had their say about the value of bitcoin, people will start spending, and the price will stabilise - so that is at least another few years away!

You can't build a currency from scratch in only a few years, with no public support and no political agenda - it take time, but it will be worth it! Wink

XXthetimeisnowXX

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

a wolf in sheeps clothing. suckerfish

Quote from: onesalt on April 11, 2013, 01:59:38 PM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on April 11, 2013, 01:41:27 PM

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

Up into another bubble and into another crash in an endlessly repeating cycle of greed and idiocy on the account of people like you.

ha you should go ask your boss for a pay decrease. you greedy fool!

ever asked for a raise? your greedy

ever shopped at walmart cuz of lower prices? your greedy

you have ANYTHING that you dont want to share with others? your greedy

oh greed greed greed greed. PLEASE! if you think bitcoins are a good idea and want to buy something with them then its not there fault the price is 20 or 200 they just want bitcoins to use. if you dont like that then go back to the dollar and pay your fair share of taxes and never bitch about it ether. don't talk to me about greed.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: SuperHakka on April 11, 2013, 02:57:44 PM

yah, I has a theory that posters on here who only exclusively talk about bitcoin price do not love btc for what it is but are pure speculators out to make fiat. btc lovers will prefer to have stable btcusd as poster above said so that the retail and trade side of the bitcoin ecosystem can function properly. which business or consumer will transact with a currency that is rapidly appreciating by 100% every week?!?

You got me! Wink

Can't I be both though? Kiss

XXthetimeisnowXX

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

a wolf in sheeps clothing. suckerfish

Quote from: glendall on April 11, 2013, 02:00:51 PM

Great points...good to keep a clear head.. .

we need more people like the OP and you!! both of you keep up the good work.

Luckybit

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 510

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on April 11, 2013, 01:41:27 PM

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

[Edit - that last sentence went too far. There'll be lot more flash crashes for a long time, and there is always a chance that bitcoin could fall to zero. But the fundamentals have not changed, and they point to bitcoin continuing to go up exponentially in the long term, however bumpy the roller-coaster gets].

Flash crashes can easily be prevented and will in the next month or so. This gives me and others the perfect amount of time to gather our funds and buy for the long term. The short term people who got burned will get out but the vast majority of people I predict wont get out because they aren't in yet, this isn't really the peak because most people aren't verified yet on mtGox and can't buy yet. Give it 2 more weeks.

420

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: samson on April 11, 2013, 04:18:29 PM

If MtGox is working properly and fast this kind of correction will probably become a monthly occurrence.

Just imagine lots of people being able to buy and sell several thousand BTC in a couple of seconds without introducing any lag. Whole sections of the order book will disappear in an instant.

1. as the average coin becomes more distributed (diversified) for example from old holders cashing out to new ones buying fewer btc

2. and as more stronger hands hold on (hedge funds, large net worth/ long term investors

equals a conclusion of more stable price. that is only reaching a real stabilization when mass adoption reaches near its max; this is years away unfortunately

samson

legendary

Activity: 2097

Merit: 1070

If MtGox is working properly and fast this kind of correction will probably become a monthly occurrence.

Just imagine lots of people being able to buy and sell several thousand BTC in a couple of seconds without introducing any lag. Whole sections of the order book will disappear in an instant.

420

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Don't panic newbs. everything will be up over $100 in no time (no time = when exchanges are back to normal. I can't wait for a healthy exchange to take over more gox operations, hint CoinLab.)

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

ahem... could you please freak out anyway?
Just a tiny bit more? Please? Grin

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

One thing I've learned from this is how to spot sentiment changes. I had a bunch of theories about bubble indicators:

Usually level-headed bulls getting inexplicably arrogant and/or dogmatic
Former bears "seeing the light" for flimsy reasons or only because of their envy at bulls' fortunes
Bears no longer being predominantly trollish or incoherent thinkers or people missing some obvious fundamental point, but actually raising real potential concerns or actually seeming intelligent and un-arrogant
Double exponential growth on merely exponential fundamentals
Glut of speculators with basic knowledge gaps about Bitcoin
NEWS BLITZ CANNOT BRING IN NEW STRONG HANDS IN TWO WEEKS, because it takes longer than that to learn enough about Bitcoin to become a strong hand

I suspected all these might indicate froth, and it seems I was right. But the final blow-off happened too fast for me to do anything with that knowledge. Next time I'll sell 10% or so as soon as I see these signs.

Herodes

hero member

Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on April 11, 2013, 01:41:27 PM

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

[Edit - that last sentence went too far. There'll be lot more flash crashes for a long time, and there is always a chance that bitcoin could fall to zero. But the fundamentals have not changed, and they point to bitcoin continuing to go up exponentially in the long term, however bumpy the roller-coaster gets].

True words - too much hoopla around here.. Hehe - price increasing - we're going to the moon! Price decreasing: This is the end of bitcoin!

Topic: Stop freaking out. We lost 2 weeks & returned to a sane exponential line. (Read 3233 times)