Topic: Stop giving your cheap btc to whales thanks to Wyckoff ! - page 2. (Read 7248 times)

I'm about to do something in this forum, for the sake of experimentation, to simply encourage discussion.  I WILL START FROM SCRATCH and may take the course of several days.  As I have limited time with so many things on my plate at the moment.  This will result in numerous posts.  Buy hey, that's what this forum is for, right?  

I will begin with showing it's virtually impossible, at our current location on the weekly chart, to get a firm grasp on proper breakout levels from history in 2013.  Which see below...  Also, those breakout levels from history, if there were any, could change four years later; based on market conditions.  If one disagrees, please elaborate.  

Maybe you're wondering why so high?  They should be spread out much more than that.  I'm working towards bringing us into lower time frame for the sake of discussion.

The more i think about it, I can see where just posting the 1h chart alone could be misleading.

As well as all the abbreviation labeling that's normally done on the weekly with more details on the daily.  The 1h is something I'm working on while keeping the weekly and daily in focus.

My Weekly,

TOTALLY agree.  TOTALLY.  I'm ALWAYS checking out the big picture first on the Weekly.  Sometimes the monthly [Depending on if there is enough history for a monthly].  Some alt coins don't have enough "history."  Especially, ZEROCASH.  Yes, the bigger the timeframe the bigger the "probability."  I've found, through analysis, the "probability" does diminish if one ONLY used lower time frames.  However, that's why I mentioned the 80%.  BUT, that's also why I have other lines of resistance to assist.  No, it does not always pan out in the lower time frames.  I NEVER go below 1 hour on the chart with Wyckoff.  NEVER.  



COMPLETELY agree there.  However, I was NOT indicating that in that chart.  I'm not getting how you're drawing that conclusion?  For instance, SOME PROFIT TAKING was enacted at the $910 to $860 range FROM ALL THE COINS ACCUMULATED IN THE $700's.  Like you said, "It takes TIME and effort."  Did I imply he sold ALL his coins to make a quick buck somewhere?  I really don't think I did.  If so, I did not intend to convey that.  I'll try to be more specific next time.  You can see in the $860 to $900 range where CM would keep that range while profit taking with some of his coins before continuing with more accumulation before breaking out.  I've provided a chart below to show the VERY long accumulation phase in the upper $600's to the upper $700's.  Why can't he take some profits at the $860 to $910 range from all the "effort" he put into accumulating coins over "time?"  He also accomplished some Shaking Out at that $910 to $860 range before continuing to where he wants to take us for the BIG profit taking?  Don't mind my notes scrunched up.  I simply wanted to show the long drawn out time of accumulation in the upper $600's to $700's.

The accumulation went back even further than what is pictured.  I believe what I've provided in this image is enough though.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/2W3Ge7ff/



I think my previous explanation addresses this.



I ALWAYS monitor the WEEKLY and DAILY.  I will even analyze the MONTHLY as well if beneficial.  I never implied that but I appreciate you clarifying that for other readers who may be unaware.



TOTALLY agree.  Weis, did not promote heavily on "Anticipation" either.  He too advocates waiting for signals.  Even Wyckoff maintained an open mind rather than preconceived ideas based on his rules with emphasis on price range rather than a fixed price, with emphasis on volume of course, as well as emphasis on positions to close your bets.  He most certainly knew the importance of trend lines, support lines/ resistance lines and channels.  However, I've come to find how valuable of a tool those can be when used at lower time frames WHILE keeping the larger trend in focus from the Weekly.

It's worked for me.  I've been pleased with the results.  Maybe its been only pure luck.  Time will tell.  But still, I've been pleased with the results.



TOTALLY agree.  I do take that into account.  I'm only trying to encourage an open mind rather than having a preconceived idea.



Sure, I'll keep you updated.

EDIT:  Wyckoff noticed PATTERNS, especially on the weekly, that would pan out over a time frame under certain conditions many times over and it rewarded him and those who followed him quite well.  I'm thankful for his contributions to the trading community.  It has truly stood the test of time.  I would say his work lays the foundation for those who want to trade to build upon.  However, not every house is built the same way with the same materials.  IF every house was built the same way, the composite man would have a field day.  Ya know?  

I simply used his "foundation" to build upon and I'm putting additions on the house [So to speak] with a remodel here and there to find and anticipate patterns in bull and/or bear trends.  Wyckoff's house was certainly built with a traditional decor where I prefer a more modern decor.  Still a work in progress...  

Cheers,

ProwdClown

EDIT:  I have an idea in mind to provide an example of what I'm doing in smaller time frame WHILE keeping the BIG time frame (over all trend for that cycle) in mind.  It helps me trade with a bit more confidence knowing the high probability of what's about to occur.  I'm sleepy....      Will work on the example and post here when I'm well rested and have more time.

EDIT:  I know you're a fan of Wyckoff.  I obviously am as well.  I only want to encourage you to maintain an open mind and checkout Weis' book and his modern adaption.  Can't hurt.  It's only floating ideas around.  You might find a few things in his book and end up saying, "Now why didn't I think of that?"   

Fair points given there so i'll try to explain a bit more.

The longer the timeframe you're noticing wyckoff rules on, the bigger will be the probability that the book outcome will come to fruition. And that's not critisizing wyckoff in anyway, that's the same truth for every trading setup.

Moreover, I don't really agree with the picture you are drawing. Composite man doesn't build position to make a quick buck. it takes times and effort. Nevertheless, on your chart, he accumulates at few dollars below the point in which he sold, which would make it unprofitable including endogenous and exogenous trading costs. I do believe that the difficulties in using wyckoff in such short time frame, not to monitor previously builded position, but to trade on signals, is overwhelming and needs anticipation. Wyckoff never advocated anticipation and always waited for signals. That's the issue that happens when reading adapted books by other autors (that's why I read before wyckoff books).

Regarding difficulties on drawing such a picture on small timeframe, even wyckoff was using his wave chart to picture points of supply and demands.

Anyway, you are free to trade using your set-ups, but i'd like to know if it does respect price objective sometimes with the scenario you picture.

The following is A 1h (60) chart.  I'm applying rules here in this time frame as I would in larger time frames.  NOTE:  I NEVER use his rules in a time frame less than 1 hour candles.  Can anyone see where I see entry and exits could have been made WITH STOP LOSS to protect yourself?

Who says, Wyckoff's rules should only be used on larger time frames?  If they believe this, they are mistaken.  This 1h chart is a PRIME EXAMPLE.



There were points ALL OVER that chart where bets were placed and money was made because of ANTICIPATING moves.  I even capitalized where we poke our heads out over the breakout points and revert to shakeouts.  I ANTICIPATE the shakeout and buy the dip.  ESPECIALLY, in a bull market.  Does anyone else see these things I see?  There are many examples I could give all through here on the chart I provided.  I don't wait for just Springs and Thrusts to breakout points like some others may do.  I don't just try to capitalize where there is consolidation or accumulation.  There are MANY opportunities for profits to be taken.  Just got to jump in there and take them and play it smart while doing it with proper stop losses to keep your losses small and your gains large.

Also, did you notice I have other lines of resistance [Marked in red] for potential areas to watch for shakeouts to revert back to those red lines or throwbacks that usually take place AT those red lines on occasions?  I know, technically, most may use the term, "Throwback" to only refer to being thrown back below the breakout line rather deeply.  I also use the term, "throwback" if it's thrown back below my red resistance lines.  Everyone has their own indicators and combination of indicators for various things and situations.  I've devised other means based off resistance or support lines to keep a watchful eye on when approaching those levels because we usually have shakeouts and an occasional throwback at those lines.

I'm currently working on indicators and combinations of indicators to be used when certain conditions are met but it's it will be a while before I'm finished with it and feel confident with it.  I have too many other things on my plate right now to get into it as much as I need to.  I'm preparing 2016 taxes, doing more things with my mining rigs, adding a couple of features to my training boards for teaching telephone technicians, etc..

I have to get some more sleep.  I was awakened by an alarm to make an exit and waited to see exactly where I wanted to re enter.  Noticed I had comments on here and tradingview and took the time to respond.  yaaaaaawn.   Now I must get some more sleep.

Cheers.

ProwdClown

It's not necessarily like that.  The majority of the masses do not know and will never know.  Either out of never being exposed to the info, or being exposed to it but not picking up on ALL of it and only feel CONFIDENT with a FEW of his rules under certain situations.

I did think the same way you are thinking though... hehe

I thought of starting a Wyckoff thread in relation to bitcoin on here [A while back] but thought better of it just for the reason you specified.  There are a LOT more bit coiners on bitcoin talk than there are on Trading View.  I've only recently started sharing my own discussions about Wyckoff on trading view while trading not just bitcoin but also other alts as well.  I did not want to share on trading view until I was CONFIDENT it worked but also out of paranoia as you had mentioned.

I saw this thread the very day Sandman linked us to it from Masterluc's "Analysis" thread.  Which is a damn good thread and everyone should check out.  I bought the book and began studying it.  After a while I began WRITING ON PAPER my entry and/or exit trade with date and time as if I were actually trading real money and learned how to ANTICIPATE certain things.  It didn't take long at all to convince me.  Some people only see money making in the SPRINGS and THRUSTS.  While others see many opportunities to make trades within Wyckoff's Rules.

Happy Trading  ; )

Really?  "No point?"  Hmmmmmmm   Could have fooled me.  I've made proper entry and exit points on these moves for quite some time now.  Both on paper and real money.  The only reason I've said, "I'm trying it with CURRENT activity..." is to let you and ANYONE ELSE know they can follow me on trading view as I plot out anticipated movement.  I think you and others KNOW I have provided a link to this thread FROM TRADINGVIEW.COM.  Sandman, you did an excellent job WITH BITCOIN to give those who read a prime example of how Wyckoff's rules regarding the Composite Man are just as beneficial today WITH BITCOIN [And Alt Coins for that matter] as they were decades ago with stocks, FX pairs, etc.

Buy the book, which see [It's LITERALLY in the palm of my hand with me writing this current post]: http://imgur.com/a/0fYro  Maybe you already have the book.  I don't know.

Study it well, and maybe you can benefit from it as much as I have.  I'm not here to prove anything to you or anyone else for that matter.  I don't have to prove anything...  Not going to.  Plain and simple.  I'll keep benefitting while others draw conclusions based on what things they see and/or not see.  You can have your opinion. That's fine.  Not going to argue with you or anyone else I LINK to this thread from trading view.  I'm more than happy to have profitable discussion about Wycoff's rules.  By the way, I know you're not arguing with a tone and mean face    I'm just saying, some people get it or see more than others; while some don't.  It's that simple.

This book opened up a whole new world to my eyes that I was never seeing before.  Now I ANTICIPATE certain movements and place orders [With stop losses based on those ANTICIPATED movements] with greater than 80% accuracy every time.  WHY am I saying, "... greater than 80%?"  Because sometimes a shakeout, throwback, etc... occurred during a movement that still panned out the majority of the time.  But hey, that's what stop loss is for.

Maybe, after a while, you'll see what I have seen and will learn to ANTICIPATE.  I'm not going to sit here and invest my time trying to convince you, or anyone else for that matter, how Wyckoff's rules changed my trading for the better.  Weis' book on Wyckoff will help anyone adapt to many situations with plans within plans to keep one's losses small and their gains large.

For instance, I even ANTICIPATE shakeouts and throwbacks, ESPECIALLY at breakout points and have CAPITALIZED on many trades many times WITH CONFIDENCE.  I used to be scared as hell and end up being the one who was shaken out, so to speak.  Now, I enter trades with more CONFIDENCE [While still having stop loss activated on those trades for even MORE confidence].  But hey, if you only want to have confidence to enter where you said the following:

"At least, I wouldn't search for all events at each consolidation part, but mostly look for re-accumulation or distribution..." and "Still, no point to do so extensively (unless some weird stuff starts to happens) until we get in the price objective zone, so now we can start monitoring closely price action."

Fine, you can do that.  It's your money... You do what YOU feel comfortable and/or confident doing in regards to what knowledge you may or may not have with Wyckoff's Rules.  While others continue doing what we are comfortable and/or confident with.

Once again, I'm not here to convince you.  I'm not on Trading View making those posts to try to convince you.  There is A LOT I do not say in my posts here and on trading view for several reasons that I do not care to get into on here in public or PM or on tradingview.com.  I'm not sure how much time you have invested in Wyckoff's Rules?  For some it comes quickly.  For some it takes a bit longer.  For some, they just give up cause they simply don't understand it and cannot pick up on it for whatever reason.

haha, topics and comments like this has been around for many years, Wyckoff is also a known thing and has been around for that long. other similar things were also flying around for as long as any market has existed.

..... in the end only few listen and make profit while the rest are running around chasing their own tail.

best trading info I've seen in a long while absolutely.

but now that they know we know... now what?

Accumulation does not occur on such small timeframes  Now it is about traders and crowd fighting each other.

At least, I wouldn't search for all events at each consolidation part, but mostly look for re-accumulation or distribution.

Still, no point to do so extensively (unless some weird stuff starts to happens) until we get in the price objective zone, so now we can start monitoring closely price action.

Brother Sandiman, could you please do a recent chart for us like this one ?

Great post. Good to see this kind of analysis here.


Haha I can't believe how many times I've thought this.

Nice explanation of harmonical trading on a very visible graphic example. My hats are off to you. Its the basics to understand the concept of support, resistance and moving average.

Damn I have to admit that this method surprise me by its simplicity and accuracy.

Thank you guys!
I'll probably make another price objective from the accumulation phase we went through, but now I am studying elliot waves which could be very interessent coupled with wyckoff analysis to understand market psychology.

Right any profit taking will be met with re-accumulation because our final event of the halving hasn't even shown up yet! So people taking the profit just leaves some people to get a quick little week to 2 week trade in for a little bit of money.

I've still got a couple of cheeky buy orders in at around $230 just in case - but I count that more of a wild speculation =)

i am sorry to be blunt but this is not vague it is bullshit, last year's stable price was $230 and there is no way that bitcoin price will go down to that price ever again (not now and not ever) and even if there is a dump the price will go down to around $480-$520 and there is no way it can go lower than this.
and i have to say this is in case of a massive dump, which btw is not going to happen. any dump at this point would be small back to $650 tops and then moving back up.

Thanks for the post, it was very informative. I hope the whales didn't take too many of my BTC