Supply and demand curve analysis, why Bitcoin does or does not change price.

trickyriky

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Quote from: bitgolden on August 11, 2019, 11:25:35 PM

Supply and demand will get low and low eventually, demand is going strong but supply is not getting bigger at all, miners are mining around 2k bitcoin right now (around 1.8k) and that will be cut in half soon which is 900 bitcoin give or take, that is a ton of bitcoin that would not be sold on the market, that would eventually affect the price, not right away after the halving because I am sure they are saving a bit of it aside for "just in case" reasons but eventually that will be depleted as well so all they would have is the 900 bitcoin and this is not just one person or one mining company, its bunch of them sharing it.

Hence, I think its quite important to know that bitcoin will start going up in about 1 year (maybe a bit longer like 16-18 months) because miners will have less and less money to sell.

The demand for Bitcoin will be constantly growing, and this is evident. We know that the number of BTC will be not changed ever, and further, when more and more people will start entering the crypto market, this cryptocurrency will grow in price.
If you enter some popular exchange and look through its statistics you will see that more guys buy Bitcoin not sell it.

BitHodler

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Quote from: bitgolden on August 11, 2019, 11:25:35 PM

Hence, I think its quite important to know that bitcoin will start going up in about 1 year (maybe a bit longer like 16-18 months) because miners will have less and less money to sell.

Miners have never sold the major part of their earnings to begin with. If after the block halving the price tanks, they might end up unloading more coins because of how their operational cost is still the same.

If the price does go up, the number of coins they sell might be lower compared to how many coins they sell today, but the dollar value of their sales will keep going up and therefore eat through more available market liquidity.

The dollar amount miners need every month to stay operational only increases as we have learned from the previous years. Lower block inflation doesn't change that at all.

Overall, it all comes down to what cycle we're in. If we're going through a bear market where liquidity is leaving the market, the low rate of block inflation will not help you at all, the price will keep going down anyway.

bitgolden

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Supply and demand will get low and low eventually, demand is going strong but supply is not getting bigger at all, miners are mining around 2k bitcoin right now (around 1.8k) and that will be cut in half soon which is 900 bitcoin give or take, that is a ton of bitcoin that would not be sold on the market, that would eventually affect the price, not right away after the halving because I am sure they are saving a bit of it aside for "just in case" reasons but eventually that will be depleted as well so all they would have is the 900 bitcoin and this is not just one person or one mining company, its bunch of them sharing it.

Hence, I think its quite important to know that bitcoin will start going up in about 1 year (maybe a bit longer like 16-18 months) because miners will have less and less money to sell.

Janation

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Quote from: semobo on June 27, 2019, 03:35:07 PM

when we are using the Bitcoin continuously then it will not been stable for a long time in a same position that is the most important reason that we don't have the prediction about the Bitcoin in any situation and more over normal will reduce the value or increase the value.

Obviously, with its volatility, that would be hard.

Demand and its investors are the most reason why the price of Bitcoin do change and not change. It is more of it changes that it do not change since as I said, with its volatility and a lot of its users, Bitcoin will change so quickly.

Argoo

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Quote from: Alijiindahaus on June 26, 2019, 02:10:04 PM

If you follow the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin over the past 2 months, then I can well assume the same thing that we can reach $ 15,000 before the end of this summer. Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

It seems that your assumptions do not come true. We are approaching mid-August, three weeks are left before the end of summer, and the price of bitcoin is now $ 11,394 and has a tendency to decrease. Bitcoin price volatility has always been and will always remain very high. In June, bitcoin grew very well in price, but this does not mean that it will grow for a long time. Now its price is fluctuating and for a given period of relative calm in all markets, this is good. This creates good prerequisites for the further growth of the cryptocurrency market with the onset of autumn. The fourth quarter of the year will be decisive.

RealMalatesta

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Quote from: Alijiindahaus on June 26, 2019, 02:10:04 PM

If you follow the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin over the past 2 months, then I can well assume the same thing that we can reach $ 15,000 before the end of this summer. Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

I agree with you that we can progress more than that, but correction is what usually limit some of these values predicted from growing beyond that, I remember some days back when I watch the market grow up to $13700, just within few minutes, the market suddenly plunged to $12140, making it lose value of over $1000 dollars within a space of 10 minutes before climbing back.

We could see a major correction now that will drop us back to like $7000, and when that happen, we will definitely struggle for the remaining part of the year to climb back again, which may set us to a new ATH for the year 2019 at $15k before we continue the remaining uptrend journey by next year. Well, all is speculation, and anything could happen.

semobo

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Quote from: Onetogo on May 30, 2019, 11:21:48 AM

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.

when we are using the Bitcoin continuously then it will not been stable for a long time in a same position that is the most important reason that we don't have the prediction about the Bitcoin in any situation and more over normal will reduce the value or increase the value.

Onetogo

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https://imgur.com/RHWfFbQ

Things are stabilizing. Demand is moving away.

Rembedful

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Quote from: Onetogo on May 30, 2019, 11:21:48 AM

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.

Well, you're just predicting but you don't really know if what you're predicting is accurate or not. Nobody can predict what will happen, even when you least expected it, it might be just the time that a whale will decide to invest a huge amount of money in the cryptocurrency market, and before you know just what's happening the price has started moving up within a short time. So forget about the prediction thing you're talking about and if in case you don't know, the price has already crossed from $9k to $12k plus within a short days.

BitHodler

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Quote from: Alijiindahaus on June 26, 2019, 02:10:04 PM

Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

I wouldn't pay much attention to so called analysts, mainly because of how unreliable their predictions have been in the past and how they don't seem to understand what this space is about.

One side of these analysts is extremely bullish while the other is extremely bearish. What really annoys me about them is that they link every obvious media event to a price increase (Facebook's Libra is an example of that).

It firstly isn't a crypto currency, but more importantly, it isn't going to launch this year. It's like the mainstream media doesn't think that Bitcoin can increase without an event acting as a trigger. How pathetic.

An example of the ignorance involved is how most non crypto news outlets don't even know that there is a block halving coming up. How uninformed can they be to not know about such an important event? Roll Eyes

Onetogo

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https://i.ibb.co/wWGvMB7/fig1.png

If you check this picture, globally, nothing really interesting is goin on. This is a log return analysis of Bitcoin. We have steady agressive demand and very weak supply. It will be interesting to see how long the demand can push the tempo.

hahay

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Quote from: Alijiindahaus on June 26, 2019, 02:10:04 PM

If you follow the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin over the past 2 months, then I can well assume the same thing that we can reach $ 15,000 before the end of this summer. Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

The current situation allows for the price to continue to surge and I think the price of 15k will be achieved before the second quarter ends. That is an achievement that seems impossible but if you see the sentiment that has happened so far I'm sure prices will continue to be pumped.

Alijiindahaus

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If you follow the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin over the past 2 months, then I can well assume the same thing that we can reach $ 15,000 before the end of this summer. Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

Onetogo

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As predicted price of BTC will try to converge around 15k by the end of the weekend. Demand is still very agressive, guys.

Since no one is posting here, is there an interest to continue?

Onetogo

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Bitcoin above 12k and demand is still pushing. with this ratio, price can hit 18k till the end of the week.
https://i.ibb.co/W6KLfq1/figure-1.png

By the way guys, if you find this analysis useful and if you have made any profit based on them, you can share some of your profit with me... Why not? here is the wallet: 1CWp3LXEQSVMkWTW2vfSRxppfr4gpnoUf7 Thank you.

Onetogo

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https://i.ibb.co/n6y4h9z/figure-1-4.png

Demanders are getting more and more agressive. I believe price can go above 15k within next week, if ratio between supply and demand stays about the same as it is now.

Onetogo

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Supply above 10k is weak. Prepare for big price changes, it might swing to 14,15k in next week and fall again. Volatility is coming.

Rufsilf

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Quote from: Genemind on May 30, 2019, 07:31:21 PM

Basing things in charts couldn't predict the future of Bitcoin.
The market s unpredictable and sudden changes are occuring without our control.
There are whales who could manipulate the prices in one move and there will be dumpers who will do panic selling so no matter how we predict things, prices will still remain unpredictable.

Exactly, it is one bad side in bitcoin trading because whales have ways to manipulate the prices to the point that some traders and investors will do panic selling, yes we can see an increase now to $9k but we cannot assure that it will continue to do so, a lot of predictions has been out but we cannot be sure if it will really come true. We'll just have to wait what's going to happen hopefully the price will continue to go up.

Reid

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Quote from: fiulpro on June 02, 2019, 01:06:05 PM

Can we ever rely on this data ?

We would never be able to gauge the P2P exchanges , the buying and selling that is going on in the system , nor we would be able to analyze this curve fully with no error in measurement.
The thing is , it is made in this sense that it's hard to actually keep a track of everything.

I do believe that it's something that we cannot find with absolute certainty.

Correct.
You have the accurate answers in your posts.

This is just mere speculation and I have never met anyone or saw a posts of anyone that made an accurate analysis of the bitcoin price. I mean like a daily or a monthly basis.

They all go wrong on the second time or if lucky the error will be on the third time.
No one can foretell what could happen because of the broad number of exchange by now. Some of their names I dont even know by now.
I just knew most of them start with a "bit" or a "coin" word. Grin

blockchainwriters

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once bitcoin cross 10000 dollars then the price growth would be phenomenal so we may see more positive trends demand increases thereafter

Topic: Supply and demand curve analysis, why Bitcoin does or does not change price. (Read 715 times)