Survey time! Was 340 the final bottom? - page 4.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Pruden on April 11, 2014, 12:09:26 PM

Quote from: Tzupy on April 11, 2014, 11:38:53 AM

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near. Grin

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it. Grin

"300k BTC changed hands"?

"Higher volume than previous bottom"?

Oh, you're counting Chinese volume 1:1. I wouldn't do that. Here's what I think matters, volume wise:

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

even if it was not, it was very close. we might dip to 300, even 280, but the rebound would be ferocious. we might never go there again, and just sit in 380-420 region for a while just like last summer. or we might sharply correct to 600-800 region if there is some sustainable china resolution.

Alonzo Ewing

legendary

Activity: 1040

Merit: 1001

Yes.

You don't need absolute bearish sentiment ,I.e., a majority. You simply need relative bearish sentiment, I.e., worse than at any point (or close to it) since the $1150 peak.

Pruden

hero member

Activity: 496

Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: Tzupy on April 11, 2014, 11:38:53 AM

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near. Grin

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it. Grin

serenitys

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 101

Be Here Now

I was finally able to jump in at just under 400 though but I do hope it goes lower so I can pick up more. Tongue

njcarlos

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

We'll be going lower, patience is a virtue.

serenitys

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 101

Be Here Now

Low 4's is still good though, compared to the almost 500 earlier last week. Given the overall upswing and time of year, you still have a good buy in price now.

njcarlos

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

No, not the bottom. There is not enough inbound capital to sustain this valuation, and the lower it goes the more that sideline capital waiting to get in will turn to scared money. I think we'll need to see a good month of lateral stability before you can call it a bottom.

malykii

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

I have no clue, but it would suck to have missed out on the bottom. I have been on the sidelines watching and waiting for the so called " blood in the streets " to happen, but it didn't seem like that was it.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Don't forget to vote, please.

The idea is to get a quantitative snapshot of forum sentiment for posterity, not so much a qualitative one (i.e. stuff your arguments for why it's over or not Cheesy

), according to my half-arsed idea of a longer running experiment.

hd060053

hero member

Activity: 601

Merit: 503

yes it was the bottom, the quick recovery indicates it.

smart money buys as soon as possible.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

Bears on very thin ice currently

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near. Grin

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: MatTheCat on April 11, 2014, 11:16:58 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 11, 2014, 10:46:07 AM

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.

EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

See, but that'll be the fun part. In 3 years from now, when we drop from 9k to 4k, I will ask again "did we hit rock bottom". Then I'll dig up this thread as well and... won't be able to conclude anything... damn. I must have missed a step Cheesy

infofront

legendary

Activity: 2646

Merit: 2842

Shitcoin Minimalist

A $340 bottom would be fairly consistent with the past drops from ATHs.

What confuses me is that the very bearish sentiment almost approached the point of being a bullish indicator, but we never really saw "blood in the streets". In other words, I don't think we reached a psychological bottom that would likely correspond to a fiat price bottom, IMO.

I'm very cautiously starting to take a long position again.

JustAnotherSheep

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 100

I highly doubt it. Far more likely this is just a retrace, and soon we'll be breaking new lows.

bitcoinsrus

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: MatTheCat on April 11, 2014, 11:16:58 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 11, 2014, 10:46:07 AM

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.

EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

Matt is back!

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: oda.krell on April 11, 2014, 10:46:07 AM

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.

EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

tacotime

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1005

^^ You're right, it's almost 32

2011-06-08 00:00:00 23.9999 31.9099 22.2135 29.6 104925.16 2858820.38 27.25

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: tacotime on April 11, 2014, 11:00:21 AM

In 2011, after the first major bubble, the price went from $35 to $2. The corresponding drop from the peak of $1,200 would be $68.57, but it's likely that the trough will be higher this time due to more widespread knowledge of cryptocurrencies.

Top was 32, I think. But agreed, I'd be very surprised if we would see a corresponding decline of (1/2)^4 like back then, considering that the run-up to 1200 saw a much smaller increase. For comparison, I like to think of the 2013 decline as (approximately) halving twice 260, 130, ~65.

Topic: Survey time! Was 340 the final bottom? - page 4. (Read 4493 times)