Topic: Taiwan invasion - how would it affect bitcoin - page 2. (Read 448 times)

More than a rumour, this is becoming a Heavy Metal live streaming at 4 a.m. China is building up their military to the point in which they could actually enact their desire of taking effectively over the government of Taiwan. As most of you know, as of now, Taiwan is considered a "rebel territory" by China, "that is part of China". Taiwan is also part of the strategy of the US and its allies in the Northern Pacific (Japan, South Korea). Taiwan is nothing less than a territory in dispute between China and US (not exactly, as the US does not argue that is US territory).

So, nothing to worry about, just another quarrel between the superpower and the possibly next superpower. But there is a little factor that makes Taiwan a very interesting place, and that is called TSMC  AKA Taiwan Semiconductors. This company (along with Samsung) manufacture most of the semiconductors worldwide and they have technologies that are even a decade ahead of competitors.

What do you think could happen if a proxy war for Taiwan takes place in the next years? As a hint, today a few car manufacturing plants have reduced production due to lack of semiconductors. Many other industries are also affected. Imagine that TSMC is unable to continue production or that factories are destroyed in the process. This would mean a global slowdown and a crisis that may dwarf COVID.

BTW, a semiconductor plant is nothing you can improvise. The investment is huge, the technical difficulties extreme and building times quite long.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

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it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.
China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".

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it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

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Seriously, that could happen.  There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US.  It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened.

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

maybe because they think the war can result to banks shot down or because they think they will not be able to access their fiat for long time because of bank shot down during the period.

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity to replace the loss of the manufacturing abilities in Taiwan, if that happens.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

Do you guys really think that China would actually invade Taiwan? Despite it's huge population and monetary surplus, in terms of military strength China is far behind other countries like US and Russia. In fact they are even behind their own neighbors like Japan. Taiwan invasion will be like Waterloo for the PLA, as the Taiwanese armed forces will be fighting for their very survival. Even if the Americans don't directly support the Taiwanese, PLA is likely to suffer huge losses (in terms of manpower, equipment and funds).

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

I think it's different scenario though, as stated by OP, if a war broke out, then not only bitcoin but the whole financial market will be affected negatively.


So make no mistake as well, China is not that dumb to go full war on it's province of Taiwan, they would sit down and talk about it with their counterparts. This are all Chinese, it's not that they are going to invade a new territory. Maybe in that case it will really case a world war, you can consider this as a internal conflict.