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Nice job OP!!!
Topic: Take a step back. Do the right calculations. Then stop panicking. (Read 2626 times)
October 31, 2014, 04:24:35 AM
Your backdated trigger hasn't gone bullish yet? What's up with your other thread?
I said I'd update it when a new signal comes in, nothing changed about that. So the absence of an update means no 'buy' signal yet, recommended position still USD according to this (slow as molasses, by design) momentum method.
October 30, 2014, 11:11:51 PM
Good post as always oda.krell.
The way I see it, is that during the downside of the infamous "bubbles" (I prefer accumulation/distribution cycles), all those coins bought on the way up (and from previous accumulations) are being sold to somebody. Somebody with a higher probability to hold them. That causes supply to dry up and the price inevitably rises. Sellers remove their orders and the hype begins again, slowly at first, then rising to unsustainable levels before a few large players begin to take profits, and the cycle begins again.
Smart investors I think are testing the sellers for final support points before a fairly large markup campaign.
Bitcoin is not dead nor does its blockchain sleep.
The way I see it, is that during the downside of the infamous "bubbles" (I prefer accumulation/distribution cycles), all those coins bought on the way up (and from previous accumulations) are being sold to somebody. Somebody with a higher probability to hold them. That causes supply to dry up and the price inevitably rises. Sellers remove their orders and the hype begins again, slowly at first, then rising to unsustainable levels before a few large players begin to take profits, and the cycle begins again.
Smart investors I think are testing the sellers for final support points before a fairly large markup campaign.
Bitcoin is not dead nor does its blockchain sleep.
October 30, 2014, 10:25:07 PM
Well i like to see the sentiment goes negative and ppl stop talking moon and shit,
we need desperation to reach the point where the next rally really can start.
we need desperation to reach the point where the next rally really can start.
October 30, 2014, 06:26:01 PM
By price (and tx volume) movement you mean rate of change, or just absolute price? And I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'scaled so they sum up to the same area'. You mean scaled so they initially sum up?
I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Just the absolute price, not rate of change, I meant the price over time. The scaling is just the sum of all usd transaction value ticks divided by the sum of all price ticks over a two year period. (made with blockchain.info csv and libreoffice). The bright red areas and the bright blue areas should contain the same amount of pixels.I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Yes I think that is related to your observation, how I interpret it is that during the last months people have hoarded bitcoins rather than spent them. This may be caused buy the declining price as well but I the relationship is probably more complex than that. Case in point is hoarding doesn't contribute to bullish price action, it just dampens bearish price action.
Could be a combination. Decreased adoption growth leads to reduced bullish action, increased hoarding leads to reduced bearish action. The result is the extremely stretched out correction in time (as opposed to the more drastic correction in price in 2011).
Your backdated trigger hasn't gone bullish yet? What's up with your other thread?
October 30, 2014, 04:42:44 PM
By price (and tx volume) movement you mean rate of change, or just absolute price? And I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'scaled so they sum up to the same area'. You mean scaled so they initially sum up?
I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Just the absolute price, not rate of change, I meant the price over time. The scaling is just the sum of all usd transaction value ticks divided by the sum of all price ticks over a two year period. (made with blockchain.info csv and libreoffice). The bright red areas and the bright blue areas should contain the same amount of pixels.I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Yes I think that is related to your observation, how I interpret it is that during the last months people have hoarded bitcoins rather than spent them. This may be caused buy the declining price as well but I the relationship is probably more complex than that. Case in point is hoarding doesn't contribute to bullish price action, it just dampens bearish price action.
Could be a combination. Decreased adoption growth leads to reduced bullish action, increased hoarding leads to reduced bearish action. The result is the extremely stretched out correction in time (as opposed to the more drastic correction in price in 2011).
October 30, 2014, 02:00:06 PM
By price (and tx volume) movement you mean rate of change, or just absolute price? And I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'scaled so they sum up to the same area'. You mean scaled so they initially sum up?
I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Just the absolute price, not rate of change, I meant the price over time. The scaling is just the sum of all usd transaction value ticks divided by the sum of all price ticks over a two year period. (made with blockchain.info csv and libreoffice). The bright red areas and the bright blue areas should contain the same amount of pixels.I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Yes I think that is related to your observation, how I interpret it is that during the last months people have hoarded bitcoins rather than spent them. This may be caused buy the declining price as well but I the relationship is probably more complex than that. Case in point is hoarding doesn't contribute to bullish price action, it just dampens bearish price action.
October 30, 2014, 01:39:11 PM
Well, if you include all Bitcoins (newly mined, hoarded, spent) by definition, yes but then the market price times issued coins becomes the only correct metric, there isn't even any use for a moving average if you do that.
But have a look at this chart:
It's the past two years of price movement and USD transaction volume movement scaled so they both sum up to the same area.
During the run-up the scaled transaction volume was more or less consistently above the price, that changed after the last ATH. I'm not going as far as saying it's the reason for the bear market, but it's certainly interesting.
But have a look at this chart:
It's the past two years of price movement and USD transaction volume movement scaled so they both sum up to the same area.
During the run-up the scaled transaction volume was more or less consistently above the price, that changed after the last ATH. I'm not going as far as saying it's the reason for the bear market, but it's certainly interesting.
By price (and tx volume) movement you mean rate of change, or just absolute price? And I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'scaled so they sum up to the same area'. You mean scaled so they initially sum up?
I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
October 30, 2014, 01:19:41 PM
Yeah that's the potential market cap based upon fixed supply of 21mil Bitcoins vs. current market cap based upon the supply of total mined Bitcoins argument. Both camps have some points but neither is a good measure of economic value imo.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
Good point, but: USD tx volume is more of an economic, i.e. fundamental metric. I specifically set out to look at the market valuation.
Market cap isn't really such a bad proxy for that... I'd argue that the biggest counter argument against using total_coins*price is that 'all mined' is not identical to 'all in use or being traded'. On the other hand, mining is a huge price factor, I'm sure everyone agrees. And the market cap definition based on total coins /does/ account for that. So perhaps the absolute mcap numbers are off, but the relative change should be reasonably well motivated...
Reason: there were 8 million new coins created out of thin air in the last 3+ years, and the market had to absorb them somehow (even if they are hoarded, at the time of their creation, their value was based on market value per unit, so someone who puts $1000 worth of coins into cold storage is effectively keeping that value in Bitcoin). Mcap does account for that, even if some initial number of coins is out of circulation/trading.
Well, if you include all Bitcoins (newly mined, hoarded, spent) by definition, yes but then the market price times issued coins becomes the only correct metric, there isn't even any use for a moving average if you do that.
But have a look at this chart:
It's the past two years of price movement and USD transaction volume movement scaled so they both sum up to the same area.
During the run-up the scaled transaction volume was more or less consistently above the price, that changed after the last ATH. I'm not going as far as saying it's the reason for the bear market, but it's certainly interesting.
October 30, 2014, 01:15:48 PM
I keep buying the dips too early!
Last trade in at 346 and then watch it drop $10 lol
All in all though still (re) accumulating. Sometimes I need to sell to cover short term cash flow... Whenecer that happened I feel nervous about holding less btc. It's a strange thing, especially considering there are still a lot of people don't even know what it is still. Let alone have an opinion on how much they should have!
Last trade in at 346 and then watch it drop $10 lol
All in all though still (re) accumulating. Sometimes I need to sell to cover short term cash flow... Whenecer that happened I feel nervous about holding less btc. It's a strange thing, especially considering there are still a lot of people don't even know what it is still. Let alone have an opinion on how much they should have!
October 30, 2014, 10:50:00 AM
Thank you for reminding on the bigger picture!
Personally, I did never understand all the doomsday talk going on in the last weeks. I think people have extremely inflated expectations and lack patience in regard to the value appreciation of Bitcoin.
Bitcoins' rise so far has been extremely fast compared to movements in most traditional markets. Yet people expect it to continue without any interruption.
I think the current period of depressed prices and sideways/down movement could even continue for another year. That would not be extraordinary in any respect and would by no means invalidate the revolutionary concept of Bitcoin as a superior currency.
ya.ya.yo!
Personally, I did never understand all the doomsday talk going on in the last weeks. I think people have extremely inflated expectations and lack patience in regard to the value appreciation of Bitcoin.
Bitcoins' rise so far has been extremely fast compared to movements in most traditional markets. Yet people expect it to continue without any interruption.
I think the current period of depressed prices and sideways/down movement could even continue for another year. That would not be extraordinary in any respect and would by no means invalidate the revolutionary concept of Bitcoin as a superior currency.
ya.ya.yo!
I am not a chartist, but the chart for BTC is clearly not "sideways" but more like a constant decay from the peak. I don't see any "support" or floor except the 2012 and early 2013 data. Good luck. My BTC was cancelled by coinbase and they indirectly did me a favor as it's been dropping since my order.
October 30, 2014, 10:46:39 AM
Thank you for reminding on the bigger picture!
Personally, I did never understand all the doomsday talk going on in the last weeks. I think people have extremely inflated expectations and lack patience in regard to the value appreciation of Bitcoin.
Bitcoins' rise so far has been extremely fast compared to movements in most traditional markets. Yet people expect it to continue without any interruption.
I think the current period of depressed prices and sideways/down movement could even continue for another year. That would not be extraordinary in any respect and would by no means invalidate the revolutionary concept of Bitcoin as a superior currency.
ya.ya.yo!
Personally, I did never understand all the doomsday talk going on in the last weeks. I think people have extremely inflated expectations and lack patience in regard to the value appreciation of Bitcoin.
Bitcoins' rise so far has been extremely fast compared to movements in most traditional markets. Yet people expect it to continue without any interruption.
I think the current period of depressed prices and sideways/down movement could even continue for another year. That would not be extraordinary in any respect and would by no means invalidate the revolutionary concept of Bitcoin as a superior currency.
ya.ya.yo!
October 30, 2014, 10:18:22 AM
There was a bloke on here a while back who panic sold all his BTC at 400 as the money was meant for his honeymoon, and he had lost a lot.
People commiserated with him for having to sell at the bottom of the market (at the time).
Seems like quite a good price nowadays.
It's all relative. Some one who panic sold at $1,000 in December 2013 would now be an investment hero, being able to buy back three times as many coins as they sold, as the value of the dollar has gone through the roof (in BTC terms).
But then someone who panic sold a few months before at $100 would look like a right muppet.
You have to think about the now tho. He could enjoy a great time now, or hope that Bitcoin survives this horrible crash and maybe have a good time.. when is 60 years old, that is if you make it that far because you dont die from an accident, illness, or world goes to hell in a ww3 scenareo before.People commiserated with him for having to sell at the bottom of the market (at the time).
Seems like quite a good price nowadays.
It's all relative. Some one who panic sold at $1,000 in December 2013 would now be an investment hero, being able to buy back three times as many coins as they sold, as the value of the dollar has gone through the roof (in BTC terms).
But then someone who panic sold a few months before at $100 would look like a right muppet.
Long term gains can be good but the wait is so damn depressing. If I had 400 BTC I would have sold at least 100 by now, too bad I only have one so i'll die poor.
October 30, 2014, 09:38:10 AM
There was a bloke on here a while back who panic sold all his BTC at 400 as the money was meant for his honeymoon, and he had lost a lot.
People commiserated with him for having to sell at the bottom of the market (at the time).
Seems like quite a good price nowadays.
It's all relative. Some one who panic sold at $1,000 in December 2013 would now be an investment hero, being able to buy back three times as many coins as they sold, as the value of the dollar has gone through the roof (in BTC terms).
But then someone who panic sold a few months before at $100 would look like a right muppet.
People commiserated with him for having to sell at the bottom of the market (at the time).
Seems like quite a good price nowadays.
It's all relative. Some one who panic sold at $1,000 in December 2013 would now be an investment hero, being able to buy back three times as many coins as they sold, as the value of the dollar has gone through the roof (in BTC terms).
But then someone who panic sold a few months before at $100 would look like a right muppet.
October 30, 2014, 09:15:53 AM
IMO if support at 300$ will be broken, you better panic and sell if you haven't already, buy back about 200$.
It's difficult to predict how many more early adopter whales will panic sell.
It's difficult to predict how many more early adopter whales will panic sell.
No, not really.
Selling might or might not be a good idea (based on your personal investment or trading strategy, together with your predictions of the market).
Panicking never is.
October 30, 2014, 09:04:55 AM
IMO if support at 300$ will be broken, you better panic and sell if you haven't already, buy back about 200$.
It's difficult to predict how many more early adopter whales will panic sell.
It's difficult to predict how many more early adopter whales will panic sell.
October 30, 2014, 08:51:03 AM
I 'm bullish on bitcoin but when i feel like i have doubts or second thoughts i look at one chart and one only. The bitcoin vc investment chart. 
October 30, 2014, 08:49:45 AM
Yeah that's the potential market cap based upon fixed supply of 21mil Bitcoins vs. current market cap based upon the supply of total mined Bitcoins argument. Both camps have some points but neither is a good measure of economic value imo.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
Good point, but: USD tx volume is more of an economic, i.e. fundamental metric. I specifically set out to look at the market valuation.
Market cap isn't really such a bad proxy for that... I'd argue that the biggest counter argument against using total_coins*price is that 'all mined' is not identical to 'all in use or being traded'. On the other hand, mining is a huge price factor, I'm sure everyone agrees. And the market cap definition based on total coins /does/ account for that. So perhaps the absolute mcap numbers are off, but the relative change should be reasonably well motivated...
Reason: there were 8 million new coins created out of thin air in the last 3+ years, and the market had to absorb them somehow (even if they are hoarded, at the time of their creation, their value was based on market value per unit, so someone who puts $1000 worth of coins into cold storage is effectively keeping that value in Bitcoin). Mcap does account for that, even if some initial number of coins is out of circulation/trading.
October 30, 2014, 08:42:47 AM
Not sure if this is a trollpost
(Mostly) Content free? kinda.
Trolling? Not really.
=> not in danger of being removed
October 30, 2014, 08:42:28 AM
Yeah that's the potential market cap based upon fixed supply of 21mil Bitcoins vs. current market cap based upon the supply of total mined Bitcoins argument. Both camps have some points but neither is a good measure of economic value imo.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
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