Take shelter, a storm is coming in October. - page 5.

stompix

legendary

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: Poker Player on October 02, 2022, 02:28:53 PM

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:
'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:

Quote from: Poker Player on October 02, 2022, 02:28:53 PM

3) China strikes back against the dollar:
Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention

That's not a strike, it's calling mommy for help, the Yuan has fallen to the levels of 2008 against the dollar and they can't stop it from going even down despite telling everyone not to panic, don't buy $, don't try to get your wealth out the country!
So they are going to dump their reserve $ in order to keep the yuan afloat, because, yeah, it has worked wonders in the past, from the Bank of England to Venezuela to Zimbabwe!

Marvell1

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Quote from: Poker Player on October 02, 2022, 02:28:53 PM

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

I also saw this news today, it is flooding on twitter as well as other social networks. Although this is just a rumor and there is no further information yet, if this happens, it will be the most terrible thing in the history of world economics and financials. During the 2007 crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to a domino effect of mass bankruptcies in the financial industry and at that time Lehman Brothers was valued at 600 billion. Currently, the valuation of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank is estimated at 2800 billion, 4.6 times higher than Lehman Brothers. If both go bankrupt, then it can be said that nothing will be worse for the current economy.

NeuroticFish

legendary

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1. You've come with quite a number of topics. While it can be indeed the big picture on the recession that may be about to start, it can attract a lot of trolls, especially on the last point.

2. Indeed, Twitter is full "Credit Suisse is about to fall" and some unsettling news on China too. And the "perfect storm" needs more points to start from. However, while you added the war as an important point, the energy war that's also going on seems to be missing, although it's most probably the main cause for some of the problems listed.

3. The energy war that came after the COVID crisis made the inflation go over the roof. Well, the politicians' actions as answer to those events/threats has created the inflation, but this is where we stand now. BoE is just one of the many that will have to step in and do something while they still can; I don't see it as part of the recession, I see it part of the patching that's going on everywhere in a desperate attempt to prevent what's worse.

pooya87

legendary

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The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution, for EU countries to start regaining their independence and to normalize their relations with the Eastern Bloc while NATO stops expanding eastward and promises to stop escalating.
For now US orders them to jump and Europeans ask how high.

Obviously they don't seem to want to do that so things are going to continue getting worse. Energy crisis, Economic crisis, Food crisis, Drug wars and looming threat of nuclear annihilation is going to be the "new normal".

Poker Player

legendary

Activity: 1372

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The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

Let's recap.

1) This week the BoE had to intervene to save pensions:

Pension fund panic led to Bank of England’s emergency intervention: Here’s what you need to know

"LONDON – The Bank of England launched a historic intervention to stabilize the U.K. economy, announcing a two-week purchase program for long-dated bonds and delaying its planned gilt sales until the end of October.

The move came after a massive sell-off in U.K. government bonds — known as “gilts” — following the new government’s fiscal policy announcements Friday. The policies included large swathes of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global criticism, and also saw the pound fall to an all-time low against the dollar on Monday."

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

3) China strikes back against the dollar:

Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention

"HONG KONG, Sept 29 (Reuters) - China's central bank has asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars for the local unit in offshore markets as it steps up efforts to stem the yuan's descent, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

State banks were told to ask their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review their holdings of the offshore yuan and ensure U.S. dollar reserves are ready to be deployed, three of the sources, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

The simultaneous selling of dollars and buying of yuan could put a floor under the Chinese currency, which has lost more than 11% to the dollar so far this year and looks set for its biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified its official and market rates.

The scale of this round of dollar selling to defend the weakening yuan will be rather big, one of the sources said."

4)Probably related to this point above, and others, there is an emergency Fed meeting tomorrow.

Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

5)The war in Ukraine continues, with veiled threats from Russia to use nuclear weapons and private response at the highest level from the US saying that if that happens they will respond.

I am opening this thread so that we can comment on these and other issues that will happen in October.

Topic: Take shelter, a storm is coming in October. - page 5. (Read 1013 times)