Target Price Methodology | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: Etranger on March 19, 2022, 06:57:43 AM

Quote from: perfect999 on March 17, 2022, 07:05:34 AM

Price can go sideways because of different reasons and to know these reasons it's important to stay updated either by watching the news or by visiting the forum because people also talk here about the latest happening in cryptocurrencies which can affect their price.

The forum helps a lot this way. It seems to me that some important news is not only discussed here in the first place, but also anticipated in advance. It is very difficult to follow all the updates by yourself. However, at the forum you not only immediately see the news, but also the reaction to it and the analysis of how it can affect the market as a whole. This is one of the biggest reasons why I love bitcointalk.

There's a lot of good advices here, not just about investments but also about personal things you just need to explore this forum.
Anyway, target price should be based on your own contentment because we can't tell you to take profit already if you are not happy with that money yet, it will always depend on you but its better not to be greedy. There are some cases that many regrets on selling early even if its already their target price, I believe they still can't control their emotion and this should be improve as well.

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Quote from: perfect999 on March 17, 2022, 07:05:34 AM

Price can go sideways because of different reasons and to know these reasons it's important to stay updated either by watching the news or by visiting the forum because people also talk here about the latest happening in cryptocurrencies which can affect their price.

The forum helps a lot this way. It seems to me that some important news is not only discussed here in the first place, but also anticipated in advance. It is very difficult to follow all the updates by yourself. However, at the forum you not only immediately see the news, but also the reaction to it and the analysis of how it can affect the market as a whole. This is one of the biggest reasons why I love bitcointalk.

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For me, the target price will depend on what kind of trader we are. If we are a daily trader, it doesn't need to set up a very high target price to take profits. I commonly will use a certain timeframe, from 4h or others depending on how we set the indicator.

However, if we are a slow starter in the spot market moreover, we can also determine that it is for the very short term in daily or some days, for a short middle term or for holding. I will decide it based on the prospect of the coins or tokens that we are now holding. I will also think about the probabilities of the coins or tokens in several months later, if they are really worthy of even only hype tokens. If they are worthya dn top coins, maybe I need more tha 30% increases for taking profits.And I need to wait also for passing ATH only for the very top coins

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Quote from: perfect999 on March 17, 2022, 07:05:34 AM

Quote from: AicecreaME on March 10, 2022, 09:25:13 AM

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

Price can go sideways because of different reasons and to know these reasons it's important to stay updated either by watching the news or by visiting the forum because people also talk here about the latest happening in cryptocurrencies which can affect their price. There's actually a term for that or when you scout information outside, I think it was called fundamental analysis.

It's beneficial if you can include that on one of your trading/investing strategies. Taking an action immediately can also secure the predictions that you just committed because there is no way that it will be reverted once you already sold or bought your coins.

one way to keep tabs if you are holding specific coins is to subscribe the social media channels of a given coin. because most of the time, there are discussions that are not being discussed on ANN threads or their blogs or their site. as it is now easy to post small updates via soc media channels like telegram or twitter, some of these devs will post something on these channels. now, if you feel they are being silent and hard to communicate with. maybe, start thinking of getting out while you are still in positive profit. because if they are not showing activity or any enthusiasm to their community, something is wrong with it. you need to get ahead of things, otherwise, they will possibly leave their holders hanging.

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Quote from: AicecreaME on March 10, 2022, 09:25:13 AM

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

Price can go sideways because of different reasons and to know these reasons it's important to stay updated either by watching the news or by visiting the forum because people also talk here about the latest happening in cryptocurrencies which can affect their price. There's actually a term for that or when you scout information outside, I think it was called fundamental analysis.

It's beneficial if you can include that on one of your trading/investing strategies. Taking an action immediately can also secure the predictions that you just committed because there is no way that it will be reverted once you already sold or bought your coins.

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I think everybody and myself fall into the classification of speculating, but instead than speculating without reason, it's vastly improved to figure with our own reasons. This is great however, it will work like stop misfortune and as a matter of fact it will be a stop misfortune and benefit check for you.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on March 15, 2022, 06:33:52 AM

The market is more bearish than bulllsih like I have said, the $40000 support is now the resistance price, very possible the price of bitcoin may increase again but in a way the increase will not be much and lesser than the dip. If you are losing, likely you may like to turn it into holding especially if you use 1x as you open long position, your money will never be liquidated, the price of bitcoin can go more low but a time is coming the price will increase more than the price you open the position. If you use high leverage, you may want to cut loss, but the market is not that volatile recently, but still depends on the leverage used.

I am pretty sure that people who use leverage do not do it for just 2x that frequently, and even if they do, they are not the ones at risk. People who do 10x at least or even more are the people who make the real risks, they are taking those risks because they could make a lot more in profit as well. Your 100 bucks could turn into 1000 bucks very easily, all depending on the right moment and right movement.

This is why they are taking those risks, sure it is not easy and sure you could lose it all but think about it like gambling, people spend tens of billions of dollars on gambling every year, and leverage is not really that different from it.

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Quote from: Etranger on March 15, 2022, 03:57:55 AM

What will you reccomend me to do, when I have a goal, e.g. 20%, I am waiting for it (more or less), but I noticed that the price began to move in a different direction, not as I expected, and the value of the asset is lower than I bought. How do I know that selling with a small loss is better than waiting for a large-scale collapse and not waiting for 20% growth? And how should I understand when this loss is small and it is better to have time to get out of position?

The reason people should be panic is because they use high margin, I can still consider 2x margin for bitcoin to be good but 1x is the best to have a safer trading strategy, also especially for altcoins which are most volatile. Recently I do not trade all because the market did not hit my target which are $32000 dip then I will open a long position, or $42000 increase to open a short position. People have to be very careful of the price they want to open a position.

The market is more bearish than bulllsih like I have said, the $40000 support is now the resistance price, very possible the price of bitcoin may increase again but in a way the increase will not be much and lesser than the dip. If you are losing, likely you may like to turn it into holding especially if you use 1x as you open long position, your money will never be liquidated, the price of bitcoin can go more low but a time is coming the price will increase more than the price you open the position. If you use high leverage, you may want to cut loss, but the market is not that volatile recently, but still depends on the leverage used.

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on March 15, 2022, 01:43:05 AM

A lot of traders look at certain levels which are merely psychological to trigger or exit trades. It works most times because if everyone is looking at the same thing at the same time, naturally they will react same way at the same time. These levels are often the round up numbers most times like $35,000, $40,000, $$45,000, etc. We even saw it yesterday when price got to $39,940+ and reverted. Since it's declining now, it's likely that more traders and investors will wait at the $35,000 region to trigger a buy.

Doesn't this approach make me hostage to the crowd? If most people tend to focus on round prices, and I know that, shouldn't I move against the crowd? You said that

Quote from: Mpamaegbu on March 15, 2022, 01:43:05 AM

It's best to stick to what works for you. Don't conform to the speculation of the crowd to place any form of authenticity on your action. That will be seeking unnecessary validation from the crowd. Most times, the crowd is wrong.

Quote from: Oshosondy on March 15, 2022, 02:43:26 AM

From what I read, it is like you will prefer swing trading, swing trading is not about thinking of a certain percentage profit, it is about just leave your trade for long term and see the profit you have gained. You can at times set your goal to be 20% profit and it can be more or less, but most likely more. One thing about trading is that we should not be greedy, you will need to make your own goals about the percentage gain you want, all is based on sentiment, the gain might be more or less, but I do not use take profit for swing trading, I just leave the trade like that until I gain in a way that I am pleased with and when I know the market direction can not be easy to predict.

What will you reccomend me to do, when I have a goal, e.g. 20%, I am waiting for it (more or less), but I noticed that the price began to move in a different direction, not as I expected, and the value of the asset is lower than I bought. How do I know that selling with a small loss is better than waiting for a large-scale collapse and not waiting for 20% growth? And how should I understand when this loss is small and it is better to have time to get out of position?

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Quote from: Etranger on November 25, 2021, 06:22:58 AM

But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

From what I read, it is like you will prefer swing trading, swing trading is not about thinking of a certain percentage profit, it is about just leave your trade for long term and see the profit you have gained. You can at times set your goal to be 20% profit and it can be more or less, but most likely more. One thing about trading is that we should not be greedy, you will need to make your own goals about the percentage gain you want, all is based on sentiment, the gain might be more or less, but I do not use take profit for swing trading, I just leave the trade like that until I gain in a way that I am pleased with and when I know the market direction can not be easy to predict.

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Quote from: Etranger on November 25, 2021, 06:22:58 AM

Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy.

It's best to stick to what works for you. Don't conform to the speculation of the crowd to place any form of authenticity on your action. That will be seeking unnecessary validation from the crowd. Most times, the crowd is wrong.

Quote

But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on?

Trading, at best, is based on speculation. A lot of traders look at certain levels which are merely psychological to trigger or exit trades. It works most times because if everyone is looking at the same thing at the same time, naturally they will react same way at the same time. These levels are often the round up numbers most times like $35,000, $40,000, $$45,000, etc. We even saw it yesterday when price got to $39,940+ and reverted. Since it's declining now, it's likely that more traders and investors will wait at the $35,000 region to trigger a buy. All that is psychology and away from TA. However, if any of those levels falls within a support or resistance level it should not be ignored.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on March 12, 2022, 07:55:42 PM

Most traders have different approaches or ways to trade.
Another thing to consider here, like how to identify your target/entry/stop-loss is using Risk Management.

Risk management will help you to make a good trader, it is like minimizing your loss while maximizing your profits. Here comes the risk:reward ratio where will help you to identify how you are willing to lose for this trade or for this target, in short, you are willing to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount.

Do I understand correctly that the selection of this ratio will vary from case to case? And also if I am willing to to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount, should I wait until I get this target amount even if I loose some part of investment when the price goes down at first? Shouldn`t I close the position with a loss in this case and just start over?

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Quote from: Etranger on November 25, 2021, 06:22:58 AM

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions.
(.....)

Most traders have different approaches or ways to trade.
Another thing to consider here, like how to identify your target/entry/stop-loss is using Risk Management.

Risk management will help you to make a good trader, it is like minimizing your loss while maximizing your profits. Here comes the risk:reward ratio where will help you to identify how you are willing to lose for this trade or for this target, in short, you are willing to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount.

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Quote from: AicecreaME on March 10, 2022, 09:25:13 AM

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

If I understood correctly, in your opinion the target price is more psychological thing, right? That`s why I should decide what would be satisfied procent for my profit and shove off it? Correcting it at the same time on the basis of technical analysis.

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Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

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This assumptions may be due to the fact that some users face lots of losses due to impatience and not wait for the profit. It means that you should think about the profit that if you have profit up to 5% or may be 10% then you should sell that coin as the greed behaviour may be sometimes become the reason of your failure. Whenever the price become in dip then at least wait for the initial price to rise as selling at low price can make you loss of capital.

I agree with you, many users are experiencing losses from their crypto trading because they lack patient in their trading that is making them not to achieve a good Profit like other traders that apply patient in their trade. Applying patient to your long term investment will help you to recover all your losses you have experienced last year 2021. those that use this strategy to sell their coins, find it difficult to lose Profit at the end of the market because they believe once the Profit rate get to 10% or 15%, they can sell to achieve the Profit from the market.

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Crypto market is highly uncertain you can overcome your losses by setting stop loss which will help you to get profit and reduce failure. It is not possible for the accurate prediction of price but people assesses about the price that if increase and go to mention time then they will sell that coin but they do not know that surely the price will go up or down these are just speculations.

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Here's the thing, there is no such thing as fixed target price (10%, 20%, 50%) whenever you are doing technical analysis or trading it is more of an investment like waiting to have 20% before selling but if you are doing technical analysis no matter what time frame you will always have the profit zone and the stop loss zone every analysis have different price target (depending on how do you view the market) and the target price is not fixed so you read TA then do analysis where could be the top and bottom from where you are planning to enter but also consider the risk and reward ratio if it's not fit for your reward and ratio don't enter the trade and look for other opportunity.

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Quote from: Zilon on December 16, 2021, 03:22:14 PM

Target price isn't static as different factors affect target price. Capital is one of the key factors that decides how much profit target to set. But it's best to keep your profits realistic and achievable and it should be able to cover for losses when the occur. Having a fixed profit margin can be deceptive as trend changes and market volatility alternates

I agree with you, simply too many factors affect the price, so methodologies for getting some possible price targets don't work all the time... I would say it's like guessing, not some wild one, after checking all sorts of indicators you can make your prediction, but there's no 100% successful methodology!
It's why I like to trade in the long run, it's less complicated... you don't care about daily indicators, you just go with bull/bear markets and do the opposite from others! It's a bit waiting sometimes, but when you check yearly charts Bitcoin makes insane swings!

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Quote from: Etranger on November 25, 2021, 06:22:58 AM

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

It may not be easier for short term trading but for long term we can simply set our desired price and wait for it, to achieve it then make realistic targets and with cryptocurrencies you can even make 500% or more for each cycle so deciding factor is up to you and I will say let's wait until the price doubles so you can cash out the capital and let the profits to grow further so you can avoid taxes as well as zero risk.

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