The "narrative investing" theory seems to be more related to startups,instead of old and established companies.This theory looks OK,but I have a different opinion about the future.
2020+ investing will be like:
Buy every asset that has at least a little bit of legitimacy and hype,price bubbles are gonna grow,the Federal Reserve keeps printing money I'm not quite sure that technical and fundamental analysis are 100% obsolete though.
I can't agree that the "narrative investing" applies to startups only. In fact it's quite applicable to the giants as well, which is strongly evident from S&P500 with vs. S&P500 without FANG+. Same for large caps doing vaccines, same for public companies suddenly engaging in BTC deals. It's just since most of the members here, including myself are more tech/fintech orienter, we know more about this area, but this is well applicable to healthcare, and other industries too. You are right about the Fed though
they seam to stop carrying about what they buy into. And about TA & fundamental analysis - I started another thread related to this quite some time ago, where we all touched upon this too. You can check it here if you would like to:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55829799I agree. I think people as old as Warren Buffett, 90, physically can't comprehend the current situation. Even Buffet himself knows that and that's why he hires younger investment managers. So, when journalists, in order to create a clickbait article, ask Buffet his opinion on this or that, we shouldn't blindly follow his advices.
Yes, here I 100% agree with you. Especially with those journalists, as they always twist the original source and just try to make it more buzzy and popular, so when we get to read from them, sometimes it's an entirely different story.
I don't think there is anything truly new or old when it comes to money and investment.
A person could open a bible and see money changers in jewish temples using the same narrative based marketing strategies investors use today. The same with Hayek vs Keynes potentially being an illusion of choice narrative. Trickle down economics, modern monetary theory, austerity and other things. There have always been commonly accepted myths and legends built around financial institutions. In an effort to push manufactured consensus that serve underlying agendas of various types.
If anyone's seen the movie Rocky 5. The families financial advisor is given power of attorney. He invests Rocky's money expecting to turn a profit for himself and return the funds before anyone notices. Gambling with the money of creditors this way dates back centuries. There's a legend about the Rothschilds using this to multiply their wealth in the 1700s - 1800s(? If I'm remembering correctly ?). I think the same could be said about virtually any theme relating to investment and money. There are past examples dating back through history. They're all old things, rather than new.
What you refer to is that the history always repeats itself. Also depends on the time-frame, because as you correctly noted there can be cases where we can find something similar hundreds of years ago. However, while principles might be same or similar, the reality is different. If before for TA you would need to actually write down every single stock move and then draw the lines and make investment decision, now it happens in less than a second. If before to get the fair estimate of asset/company value you would need to physically go there and beg them to give financial statements to be able to even calculate net profit margin, now it takes less than a minute by googling for appropriate metric in most cases. If before to spread the narrative you would either need to stand on the street and shout or go to gossip with everyone around in the kingdom, or push hard the chief editor of newspaper to let him print your narrative story, now all it can take is just a few posts on unknown blog or few tweets, fulled with fake likes/retweets/comments. So as I said - principles are surely same - borrow, invest, interest, margin, etc., etc., but the conditions / environment is entirely different.