Topic: *That* chart has made it all the way to the FT! (Read 3206 times)

I'm reading a great book called "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, which is all about our cognitive biases.  An important theme is WYSIATI (what you see is all there is), and there's copious volumes of research that prove how susceptible our brains are to this bias.  It's why last summer anyone who predicated $1200 a few months out was not taken seriously, and it's why people scoff at the idea that fiat money could lose its importance.  

The FT author sees a classic picture of the first portion of a bubble chart and, due to WYSIATI, her brain pattern-matches that to the classic "bubble chart" we've all seen a million times: her intuitive response is BUBBLE and this precludes her from even considering the many rational arguments against this being "the end" (the arguments simply don't exist to her because she is blinded by only what she does see).  

Rather than focussing on sentiment and on price, I think it's more useful to consider the infrastructure being built.  The most important of which are the fiat<-->bitcoin gateways.  There's now hundreds of bitcoin ATMS across the world with more rolling out each month, the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could soon be approved, and Circle should eventually allow people to instantly signup and purchase bitcoin with a credit card.  During the last growth spurt there was exactly 1 bitcoin ATM.  

This infrastructure won't precipitate another wave of bitcoin adoption, but it would certainly facilitate one should sentiment make a 180 deg turn.  And with the fiat gateways opened much wider than at any time in bitcoin's history, the next cycle could be epic.  

I always feel somewhat "dirty" talking about this because bitcoin has much nobler goals, but Bitcoin's killer app right now is that it appeals to people's lust for wealth.  Of course, the corollary to this is that it is also at the whim of people's fear of losing money (what we're seeing now).  But remember, the people most able to vote against bitcoin are those who are already participating (<0.1% of the world's population), yet the amount of people who could be seduced by the thought of easy money is a much larger percentage (some might argue 100%).

In conclusion, if every guy and girl at the gym, the pub, or the backyard BBQ can signup in minutes and purchase bitcoin instantly with his credit card, many will.  Once the infrastructure is in place, all that's required is ample media attention and a change in sentiment.

**Of course this doesn't mean we don't have a bumpy road ahead of us (or for that matter that we'll necessarily see another growth spurt).  We might still have to shatter the dreams of a few more recent speculators, and quell the ambition of a few more early whales.  

In conclusion, if every guy and girl at the gym, the pub, or the backyard BBQ can signup in minutes and purchase bitcoin instantly with his credit card, many will.  Once the infrastructure is in place, all that's required is ample media attention and a change in sentiment.

If it is the end of bitcoin, that's sad for Isabella since she's invested so much time in covering it.

We’re going to stick our neck out at this stage and call this the end of Bitcoin.

But but but she's an economist!?

The author Izabella Kaminska is a Bitcoin troll who's been writing garbage on the topic for a long time now. Her opinions on Bitcoin are totally discredited and she writes about the subject with a delusional confidence only matched Leah McGrath Goodman. You're better off reading r/buttcoin.