The 2140 end of new bitcoins. - page 2.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: Mastergerund on June 16, 2013, 03:03:15 PM

Is it because the unknown variable of new coins running out weighs heavy on everyone, so we keep the date of its occurrence as far away as conceivable?

This discussion is irrelevant.

What counts is at which point in time there are almost no new coins to be injected. That is, at which point is the influx of new coins no longer an economic factor. Unfortunately this is highly dependant on the development of the rates and the fraction of coins in circulation and thus pure speculation. And this explains why everyone concentrates on the irrelevant, yet more predictable end-of-new-coin date.

Mastergerund

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Quote from: bbit on June 16, 2013, 03:01:08 PM

2140 is right!

Oh, I know. I've seen the time-tables. My question is why do we keep insisting on that?

Is it because the unknown variable of new coins running out weighs heavy on everyone, so we keep the date of its occurrence as far away as conceivable?

bbit

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Bitcoin

2140 is right!

Mastergerund

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Quote from: r3wt on June 16, 2013, 02:50:53 PM

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on June 16, 2013, 02:48:35 PM

Someone made a study that it's closer to 2050.

come the next generation of asics, it might be within the next 3-10 years imo. i'm curious to know what happens to the value once mining has ended. does it die because of lack of miners, or does the value increase?

If >90% happens once within a block adjustment, difficulty will ratchet up, and move the end date forward 12 days. If it doesn't happen again the next adjustment, things will settle out and we're back on the slow march. I see 2050 as possible if we have constant ramp-up in hash power, but not 3-10 years. For it to be 3-10 years we would have to have CONSTANT increases in hash power of >90%. I just don't see that happening.

If we move forward 2 days every difficulty adjustment (average difficulty adjustment of ~15%) that moves the end date forward by about 18 years. 3 days each adjustment (average difficulty increase of ~21%) would move the end date forward by about 27 years.

r3wt

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always the student, never the master.

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on June 16, 2013, 02:48:35 PM

Someone made a study that it's closer to 2050.

come the next generation of asics, it might be within the next 3-10 years imo. i'm curious to know what happens to the value once mining has ended. does it die because of lack of miners, or does the value increase?

Remember remember the 5th of November

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Reverse engineer from time to time

Someone made a study that it's closer to 2050.

Mastergerund

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I still see 2140 given as the date for new bitcoins to run out, in all kinds of places.

Why is this date so prevalent and so stuck in people's heads?

Do people not understand the way difficulty readjustments work? Every difficulty increase happens because 2016 blocks were found in shorter time than projected. The timeline is based on 10 minute per block projection. Every difficulty increase moves forward the date when all new bitcoins have been minted, unless we have some future difficulty decreases that compensate for the difficulty increase.

So why do we keep saying 2140? Closer to 2100 is more accurate, IMHO.

Topic: The 2140 end of new bitcoins. - page 2. (Read 6598 times)