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Topic: The American doomsday by Tom Lee - page 2. (Read 603 times)

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
January 16, 2019, 04:36:15 PM
#25
Between the high and low of 2008, gold fell 34% in value over a period when Bear Stearns and other huge banks collapsed and the government was engaging in bailouts

Okay, I'm not going to boil over this point

But here's the gold price chart which you wanted for everyone to see and draw their own conclusions:


And here is the time period in question—during the 2008 financial crisis:


You also posted a line chart, at what looks like a monthly time frame. That means all price extremes (highs and lows) are omitted and only monthly closing prices are shown. Here is a more useful chart for our purposes:



High: $1,032.35
Low: $681.75

= 33.96% decline in value

Personally, I'm strongly inclined to think that this minor and short-lived correction with higher lows was mainly due to these banks selling out the contents of their gold vaults in an attempt to provide liquidity they so desperately needed back in the day. Well, maybe, it was not just banks alone as some governments might have been involved in this sell-off too, but that had nothing to do with gold falling in value on its own

The 2008 crisis was relatively short-lived for stocks too (only a few months longer than gold's correction). It also ended with higher lows, followed by new all-time highs. That's totally irrelevant to the point at hand: the 2008 crisis saw both markets fall significantly in value. Rationalize it however you want, but that's what happened.

(and the fall was nowhere near 34%, just in case)

See above.

Gold had been rising prior to 2008 and continued to rise after 2008 till 2012

Why do you keep repeating that? The question is: "What was the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the gold market?"

And you're responding with: "Gold was in a long term bull market." That doesn't answer the question, nor does it address what actually happened to gold prices during the last financial crisis (a 34% crash in value).
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1179
January 16, 2019, 03:43:50 PM
#24
Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.
It depends on how you look at it. It's easy to say for an outsider that Bitcoin is a reasonable solution and/or hedge, which is true, but the majority of the people there can't do anything with Bitcoin.

You can't pay for your daily necessities with Bitcoin, which is what they actually need because they live from day to day not knowing what the next one will bring. News outlets have been fooling people about crypto adoption there.

If one local store accepts payments in Bitcoin, they directly refer to it as 'Venezuela Bitcoin adoption growing' where they add tons of gibberish to the story to spice things up. Not cool.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 16, 2019, 05:18:45 AM
#23
Between the high and low of 2008, gold fell 34% in value over a period when Bear Stearns and other huge banks collapsed and the government was engaging in bailouts

Okay, I'm not going to boil over this point

But here's the gold price chart which you wanted for everyone to see and draw their own conclusions:



Personally, I'm strongly inclined to think that this minor and short-lived correction with higher lows was mainly due to these banks selling out the contents of their gold vaults in an attempt to provide liquidity they so desperately needed back in the day. Well, maybe, it was not just banks alone as some governments might have been involved in this sell-off too, but that had nothing to do with gold falling in value on its own, which the chart clearly shows (and the fall was nowhere near 34%, just in case)

Gold had been rising prior to 2008 and continued to rise after 2008 till 2012
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
January 15, 2019, 09:14:54 PM
#22
I cannot give any plausible reason except that I am using Tom Lee's prediction on the S&P as a counter indicator basing it on his failed predictions on bitcoin last year. I also started the thread as another joke on Tom Lee hehehe.

Also, giving it more thought, stock market crashes have always caused investors to hold safer investments like gold and bonds. I am not certain if this will change and make all of them invest in bitcoin, however there are big investors who understand the technology enough to be confident on its potential. Those big investors might also be the reason why the ETF is a possibility.

Are we talking about a stock market correction or a larger economic crash? I don't think it's possible to see a real crash in stocks (like 1929) without triggering a severe recession or depression. So it's an important question to keep in mind.

In an economic crash, all markets will generally suffer. Just look at 2008. Gold fell hard like everything else. It just didn't fall quite as hard as stocks.

I was talking about the larger economic crashes that might last for 5 or more years. Also, it does not have to be only in America, there are other countries like Venezuela or Zimbabwe that have there economies agonizing or have agonized from hyperinflation. Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.
member
Activity: 308
Merit: 35
January 15, 2019, 07:11:57 PM
#21
You don't understand, Draper didn't actually participate in either ico. What happened was he got involved way early before either ico was held, and then when the actual icos were being held his name was plastered all over them for his belief and involvement in them. My bet is he was given a shit ton of free coins before either ico was held in exchange for his endorsement. That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid. In both cases, neither pumped, they both raised outrageous amounts and have just bled down - in Tezos case ico participants were lied to and didn't get any tokens for a whole fucking year after the ico was held, instead of the Fall 2017 expectation.
Do some fucking research on these, Draper comes out stinking like a fucking swindler in both situations. He took no risks, used his reputation for his great call in 2015 for a 2017 $10k price to get people to buy these shitcoins and he shouldn't be given a free pass - his reputation and credibility are damaged to anyone watching. I wouldn't listen to a GD thing he ever said again, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Did anyone force people to invest in these ICO's? Nope.

It's up to you to do basic level research, and to not invest in anything just because whatever well known entity owns a large chunk of it.

I value what Draper does for Bitcoin, and that's a whole lot more than what most of the so called Bitcoin maximalists have contributed to Bitcoin combined. He wants Bitcoin to do well, invests money into startups aiming to build on top of it, and that's something I value a lot. Whatever he ends up doing with shitcoins or ICO's is not my problem because that's not something I am interested in.

He used his name to profit off those who trusted him to be above the typical crypto slimeball. Many found out the hard way he's no different. End of story.
After the shit he pulled, and knowing that if crypto went to zero he would still be a billionaire, anybody listening to anything he has to say is a moron.
member
Activity: 308
Merit: 35
January 15, 2019, 07:10:41 PM
#20
That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid.

This is standard procedure. It's called a presale or a pre-ICO. Fundraisers want to maximize publicized investment numbers heading into the ICO, so they're willing to issue large blocks at a discount to private investors. I've also heard of companies scrapping ICO plans entirely because they received enough private investment from presales.

Taking tokens for endorsement is a bit murkier. You always have to wonder when you see "advisors" whether they're actually involved or are just being paid for marketing purposes. In some cases, I think advisors are intentionally misled about the nature of projects and the true intentions of the ICO creators.

Either way, what he did doesn't exactly seem out of line in this industry. I suppose nobody should be buying any ICO token just because Draper said he invested, anyway.

There's no coincidence that these were 2 of the biggest icos in history, and both were endorsed by Draper. They were both also complete fucking failures for anyone participating in them. Rationalize it any way you want, but Draper's credibility went down the toilet afaic. He's just another shady name in the shadiest market the world has ever known.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
January 15, 2019, 07:07:47 PM
#19
You don't understand, Draper didn't actually participate in either ico. What happened was he got involved way early before either ico was held, and then when the actual icos were being held his name was plastered all over them for his belief and involvement in them. My bet is he was given a shit ton of free coins before either ico was held in exchange for his endorsement. That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid. In both cases, neither pumped, they both raised outrageous amounts and have just bled down - in Tezos case ico participants were lied to and didn't get any tokens for a whole fucking year after the ico was held, instead of the Fall 2017 expectation.
Do some fucking research on these, Draper comes out stinking like a fucking swindler in both situations. He took no risks, used his reputation for his great call in 2015 for a 2017 $10k price to get people to buy these shitcoins and he shouldn't be given a free pass - his reputation and credibility are damaged to anyone watching. I wouldn't listen to a GD thing he ever said again, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Did anyone force people to invest in these ICO's? Nope.

It's up to you to do basic level research, and to not invest in anything just because whatever well known entity owns a large chunk of it.

I value what Draper does for Bitcoin, and that's a whole lot more than what most of the so called Bitcoin maximalists have contributed to Bitcoin combined. He wants Bitcoin to do well, invests money into startups aiming to build on top of it, and that's something I value a lot. Whatever he ends up doing with shitcoins or ICO's is not my problem because that's not something I am interested in.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
January 15, 2019, 06:32:16 PM
#18
That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid.

This is standard procedure. It's called a presale or a pre-ICO. Fundraisers want to maximize publicized investment numbers heading into the ICO, so they're willing to issue large blocks at a discount to private investors. I've also heard of companies scrapping ICO plans entirely because they received enough private investment from presales.

Taking tokens for endorsement is a bit murkier. You always have to wonder when you see "advisors" whether they're actually involved or are just being paid for marketing purposes. In some cases, I think advisors are intentionally misled about the nature of projects and the true intentions of the ICO creators.

Either way, what he did doesn't exactly seem out of line in this industry. I suppose nobody should be buying any ICO token just because Draper said he invested, anyway.
member
Activity: 308
Merit: 35
January 15, 2019, 06:08:59 PM
#17
Draper endorsed two of the biggest ico flops of 2017, Bancor and Tezos. Anyone buying either because they trusted Draper's opinion and involvement most likely ended in terrible losses, so for that he lost a shit ton of credibility afaic. Now he says $250k by 2021, so if it doesn't happen he's in the same boat as Tom Lee and Mcafee as people not to listen to in my eyes.

Tim Draper is a venture capitalist, so it's safe to assume that he pumped money into way more ICO's. If people bought into these ICO's just because Tim Draper has invested in them, they have only themselves to blame for in case they lost money. I like Draper too, a lot actually, but that doesn't mean I have to follow everything he does or invests in.

It doesn't matter who you are, there is nothing in the world that you can do or say to tempt me to invest in ICO's, even when there admittedly is potential for insane profits. I prefer to stick to Bitcoin, sound money. Nothing can offer me that.

And in case Tim Draper isn't right with his $250k prediction, which I honestly don't see happen this soon, then it's still fine.

You don't understand, Draper didn't actually participate in either ico. What happened was he got involved way early before either ico was held, and then when the actual icos were being held his name was plastered all over them for his belief and involvement in them. My bet is he was given a shit ton of free coins before either ico was held in exchange for his endorsement. That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid. In both cases, neither pumped, they both raised outrageous amounts and have just bled down - in Tezos case ico participants were lied to and didn't get any tokens for a whole fucking year after the ico was held, instead of the Fall 2017 expectation.
Do some fucking research on these, Draper comes out stinking like a fucking swindler in both situations. He took no risks, used his reputation for his great call in 2015 for a 2017 $10k price to get people to buy these shitcoins and he shouldn't be given a free pass - his reputation and credibility are damaged to anyone watching. I wouldn't listen to a GD thing he ever said again, and I'm sure I'm not alone.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
January 15, 2019, 06:07:01 PM
#16
Are we talking about a stock market correction or a larger economic crash? I don't think it's possible to see a real crash in stocks (like 1929) without triggering a severe recession or depression. So it's an important question to keep in mind.

In an economic crash, all markets will generally suffer. Just look at 2008. Gold fell hard like everything else. It just didn't fall quite as hard as stocks.

Gold fell hard? What did I miss exactly?

Actually, it started to grow in 2008 with an all time high in 2012.

No, its bull market began in 2001 and 2008 was a bearish/corrective year. Anyone can pull up a chart and see that, clear as day.

The discussion had nothing to do with the ATH several years after the financial crisis ended. It pertains to what happened during the financial crisis of 2008.

Between the high and low of 2008, gold fell 34% in value over a period when Bear Stearns and other huge banks collapsed and the government was engaging in bailouts.

Gold may have recovered sooner than stocks (the S&P 500 made one more lower low in early 2009) but you're ignoring the March-November downturn in the middle of the economic crisis.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
January 15, 2019, 06:00:29 PM
#15
Draper endorsed two of the biggest ico flops of 2017, Bancor and Tezos. Anyone buying either because they trusted Draper's opinion and involvement most likely ended in terrible losses, so for that he lost a shit ton of credibility afaic. Now he says $250k by 2021, so if it doesn't happen he's in the same boat as Tom Lee and Mcafee as people not to listen to in my eyes.

Tim Draper is a venture capitalist, so it's safe to assume that he pumped money into way more ICO's. If people bought into these ICO's just because Tim Draper has invested in them, they have only themselves to blame for in case they lost money. I like Draper too, a lot actually, but that doesn't mean I have to follow everything he does or invests in.

It doesn't matter who you are, there is nothing in the world that you can do or say to tempt me to invest in ICO's, even when there admittedly is potential for insane profits. I prefer to stick to Bitcoin, sound money. Nothing can offer me that.

And in case Tim Draper isn't right with his $250k prediction, which I honestly don't see happen this soon, then it's still fine.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 15, 2019, 05:23:51 PM
#14
I cannot give any plausible reason except that I am using Tom Lee's prediction on the S&P as a counter indicator basing it on his failed predictions on bitcoin last year. I also started the thread as another joke on Tom Lee hehehe.

Also, giving it more thought, stock market crashes have always caused investors to hold safer investments like gold and bonds. I am not certain if this will change and make all of them invest in bitcoin, however there are big investors who understand the technology enough to be confident on its potential. Those big investors might also be the reason why the ETF is a possibility.

Are we talking about a stock market correction or a larger economic crash? I don't think it's possible to see a real crash in stocks (like 1929) without triggering a severe recession or depression. So it's an important question to keep in mind.

In an economic crash, all markets will generally suffer. Just look at 2008. Gold fell hard like everything else. It just didn't fall quite as hard as stocks.

Gold fell hard? What did I miss exactly?

Actually, it started to grow in 2008 with an all time high in 2012. In 2009 alone it rose like 25% with another 30% in 2010. And it kept on rising as long as the Fed had been running quantitative easings. And while we are at it, this is the exact reason why things cannot repeat what happened in 1929 and soon thereafter. If we still were on the gold standard in 2008, we would likely have seen a new Great Depression or even worse, but this is not possible with fiat money not tied up by or to anything (e.g. gold)
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
January 15, 2019, 04:57:52 PM
#13
I cannot give any plausible reason except that I am using Tom Lee's prediction on the S&P as a counter indicator basing it on his failed predictions on bitcoin last year. I also started the thread as another joke on Tom Lee hehehe.

Also, giving it more thought, stock market crashes have always caused investors to hold safer investments like gold and bonds. I am not certain if this will change and make all of them invest in bitcoin, however there are big investors who understand the technology enough to be confident on its potential. Those big investors might also be the reason why the ETF is a possibility.

Are we talking about a stock market correction or a larger economic crash? I don't think it's possible to see a real crash in stocks (like 1929) without triggering a severe recession or depression. So it's an important question to keep in mind.

In an economic crash, all markets will generally suffer. Just look at 2008. Gold fell hard like everything else. It just didn't fall quite as hard as stocks.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1179
January 15, 2019, 01:52:03 PM
#12
they were and still are rejecting ETFs based on same reasons such as the un-regulated state of bitcoin market, the high unrealistic volatility of it, the manipulation that exists in this market, and a lot more and none of those reasons are going to go away if S&P tanks!
It's clear by now that there is no way to please the SEC other than stop coming up with new ETF proposals. They don't want it. I can't blame them, it must be frightening for them to stimulate this industry.

It wouldn't surprise me if they completely ignore coin backed ETFs and solely allow empty cash settled ETFs doing nothing but functioning as price tracker. It's the safest option in many ways and it translates into less spot demand.

In terms of Tom Lee's prediction about the S&P, it is perfectly possible that it bounces back up. His crypto predictions are rubbish, but he's not a joke when it comes to traditional markets, so don't write him off yet on that front.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1137
January 15, 2019, 01:13:17 AM
#11
but SEC has not been rejecting ETFs for nearly 2 years (maybe more) because of lack of interest to want to approve of them in case interest from "big investors" peaked! they were and still are rejecting ETFs based on same reasons such as the un-regulated state of bitcoin market, the high unrealistic volatility of it, the manipulation that exists in this market, and a lot more and none of those reasons are going to go away if S&P tanks!
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
January 14, 2019, 08:29:47 PM
#10
I cannot stop laughing.

I reckon a major crash on the S&P might be good for bitcoin however. It might make institutions look for alternative investments that might also rush bitcoin ETF applications to quick approval

Can you give even a single plausible reason why it might?

Truth be told, I hope you turn out to be right (if it comes to that), but if your train of thought is anywhere close to what I think it is, then there's a lot of ifs and buts in respect to your reasoning. Basically, you may think that if the American stock market continues to spiral down in ever widening circles, with the economy stagnating in recession, people will be looking for safe havens (the point with which I agree) and one such safe haven will be Bitcoin (the point which I doubt). So what are your convincing reasons as to why that might be true indeed?

I cannot give any plausible reason except that I am using Tom Lee's prediction on the S&P as a counter indicator basing it on his failed predictions on bitcoin last year. I also started the thread as another joke on Tom Lee hehehe.

Also, giving it more thought, stock market crashes have always caused investors to hold safer investments like gold and bonds. I am not certain if this will change and make all of them invest in bitcoin, however there are big investors who understand the technology enough to be confident on its potential. Those big investors might also be the reason why the ETF is a possibility.
member
Activity: 308
Merit: 35
January 14, 2019, 05:46:30 PM
#9
Tom Lee should go be an Uber driver, he killed his reputation with idiotic predictions. If bitcoin doesn't cross 6 figures in a couple years, Mcafee and Draper will join him as crypto analyst clowns.

Tim Draper puts his money where his mouth is, plus he is actively contributing to make Bitcoin become more widely known and accepted. His latest investment in OpenNode is a great example of that, where it will utilize Bitcoin's Lightning Network and compete with shitty services as BitPay. That's why I find it funny that Tone Vays wants him out before the market can finally bottom, lol. Idiot.

Tom Lee and McAfee are nothing more than fools, that I can agree with. Both have done nothing for this space other than providing nonsense analysis in case of Tom Lee, and in case of McAfee it's promoting scam ICO's that people lost a lot of money with.

The funny thing with Tom Lee is that his legacy market analysis was fairly decent up to a certain point, but it became shit the moment the stock market started correcting.  Cheesy

Draper endorsed two of the biggest ico flops of 2017, Bancor and Tezos. Anyone buying either because they trusted Draper's opinion and involvement most likely ended in terrible losses, so for that he lost a shit ton of credibility afaic. Now he says $250k by 2021, so if it doesn't happen he's in the same boat as Tom Lee and Mcafee as people not to listen to in my eyes.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
January 14, 2019, 03:43:22 PM
#8
Tim Draper puts his money where his mouth is, plus he is actively contributing to make Bitcoin become more widely known and accepted. His latest investment in OpenNode is a great example of that, where it will utilize Bitcoin's Lightning Network and compete with shitty services as BitPay. That's why I find it funny that Tone Vays wants him out before the market can finally bottom, lol. Idiot.

seriously? good luck with that one, tone. draper went balls deep into bitcoin right in the face of the 2014 bear market. his mindset is completely long term; he's not interested in getting rich quick (he's already rich). guys like that won't get shaken out easily, if ever.

tone is just being irrationally bearish. that's always been his way.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
January 14, 2019, 03:15:44 PM
#7
Tom Lee should go be an Uber driver, he killed his reputation with idiotic predictions. If bitcoin doesn't cross 6 figures in a couple years, Mcafee and Draper will join him as crypto analyst clowns.

Tim Draper puts his money where his mouth is, plus he is actively contributing to make Bitcoin become more widely known and accepted. His latest investment in OpenNode is a great example of that, where it will utilize Bitcoin's Lightning Network and compete with shitty services as BitPay. That's why I find it funny that Tone Vays wants him out before the market can finally bottom, lol. Idiot.

Tom Lee and McAfee are nothing more than fools, that I can agree with. Both have done nothing for this space other than providing nonsense analysis in case of Tom Lee, and in case of McAfee it's promoting scam ICO's that people lost a lot of money with.

The funny thing with Tom Lee is that his legacy market analysis was fairly decent up to a certain point, but it became shit the moment the stock market started correcting.  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 14, 2019, 11:32:49 AM
#6
I cannot stop laughing.

I reckon a major crash on the S&P might be good for bitcoin however. It might make institutions look for alternative investments that might also rush bitcoin ETF applications to quick approval

Can you give even a single plausible reason why it might?

Truth be told, I hope you turn out to be right (if it comes to that), but if your train of thought is anywhere close to what I think it is, then there's a lot of ifs and buts in respect to your reasoning. Basically, you may think that if the American stock market continues to spiral down in ever widening circles, with the economy stagnating in recession, people will be looking for safe havens (the point with which I agree) and one such safe haven will be Bitcoin (the point which I doubt). So what are your convincing reasons as to why that might be true indeed?
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