The bear period (December 17, 2017 - December 17, 2018)

Baofeng

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Quote from: kotwica666 on December 23, 2018, 04:36:38 PM

Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

It would be very nice if we could prove the repeatability of the cycles on other examples. The price history of Bitcoin looks like a growing wave, but unfortunately it is not known how long the next waves (cycles) can be and whether they will continue to grow, or if the next one will be much smaller. Many people try to look for such similarities in the hope that they will find a holy grail and will be able to predict the price. This, however, cannot be done.

And the fact that the market is still fairly young and the data sample who have right now is so small that's why its really hard to prove and get something out of its previous past. What we only know is that the market works on cycles, but we really don't know when will the bull/bear cycle ends and starts. So its really just a coincidence that the last cycle was similar because its really hard to predict the market price.

I just hope so that the bear cycle has ended so that we can finally see the price moving to a direction which everyone is comfortable.

WatchMaker

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It's no doubt that the market is showing some signs of recovery as it adds over $30 billion in the last seven days. But, the bear market is unpredictable thus no one knows exactly when things are going to okay only time will tell.

kotwica666

legendary

Activity: 2282

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Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

It would be very nice if we could prove the repeatability of the cycles on other examples. The price history of Bitcoin looks like a growing wave, but unfortunately it is not known how long the next waves (cycles) can be and whether they will continue to grow, or if the next one will be much smaller. Many people try to look for such similarities in the hope that they will find a holy grail and will be able to predict the price. This, however, cannot be done.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

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Quote from: 1Referee on December 23, 2018, 03:22:16 PM

Sorry, but that's just garbage TA. It's being rehashed everywhere and it seems that it has even reached people here.

Seriously, this whole space is infested with TA "gurus" that no one even knew about before 2017 and now they think can predict the market? When they are wrong with their 'analysis' they just play it off as the market isn't always following TA, and when they are right they boast about their solid prediction and how much profit you could have made if you followed what they said.

Tossing a coin has been equally rewarding as trading based on TA.

i really think that's unfair. if TA is completely worthless, then there's no reason to engage in trading at all since fundamentals can't be quantified into price---price is subject to speculation and market psychology. that means the only acceptable methods are "buy and hold" or "short to the ground". and since the second choice can screw you on even the scammiest of altcoins, it's a dumb move.

you're conflating "bad TA practitioners" with the idea of TA. a lot of people badmouth TA because they either applied it incorrectly and used bad risk management, or because they see other people making worthless predictions. using TA isn't about predictions---it's about recognizing the trend direction and when market conditions are changing so you can react.

there's a big difference between people who ride trends/use backtested strategies and......the tom lees of the world. people make a living trading commodities, equities, and even crypto. if you think that's done based on fundamental analysis alone you'd be very wrong.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

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Quote from: Theb on December 23, 2018, 11:04:30 AM

Also for people who are observing the 4 hour chart you will see that the inverse h&s was forming before BTC now that it is back to the downtrend channel the pattern would be less likely to happen.

Sorry, but that's just garbage TA. It's being rehashed everywhere and it seems that it has even reached people here.

Seriously, this whole space is infested with TA "gurus" that no one even knew about before 2017 and now they think can predict the market? When they are wrong with their 'analysis' they just play it off as the market isn't always following TA, and when they are right they boast about their solid prediction and how much profit you could have made if you followed what they said.

Tossing a coin has been equally rewarding as trading based on TA.

Theb

hero member

Activity: 1680

Merit: 655

This will be true only if we are out of the bear market right now which isn't the case. Bitcoin rising right now does not mean we are out of the bear market yet, sure we are seeing upward movements towards it but it doesn't mean we are in a bull market and BTC had a reversal. During my technical analysis I got my hopes up when I saw it broke down the downtrend channel when it went back up above 3990$+ on its 4 hour chart but my hopes was cut short because as of right now BTC went back down again below 4,000$ which is back to the downtrend channel. Also for people who are observing the 4 hour chart you will see that the inverse h&s was forming before BTC now that it is back to the downtrend channel the pattern would be less likely to happen.

Siti Nurbaya

jr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 1

Re-learning bitcoin travel from year to year can give us a positive prejudice on the development of bitcoin, this is a good action.
And we have passed that event and we are back to trust that bitcoin remains popular and continues to have prices.

buwaytress

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Just because the past 7 days have seen a double-digit recovery for Bitcoin - and the rest of crypto almost trailing in this wake - don't mean the Dec - Dec YoY for 2019 will be a reversal in trend. Just so much uncertainty in the markets, Bitcoin expected for the longest time to stabilise around 6k and yet found a way to shed another 50%. Looks just impossible to ascertain anything at this point, nor at any point really until we see momentum and volumes at least 4 or 5 times current levels.

myohmy81

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 251

Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

Good observation OP but this bearish will not end as long as we are still in the lower level. I just hope that your observation is true that the bearish was ended last Dec. 17 as we see some growth after that. Something that we are slowly heading up for the benefits of those who believe in bitcoin and it's time to get back to a profitable year.

qualitywork

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Activity: 280

Merit: 12

This was a horrible experience as most of them suffered a massive loss in this bearish run, a was Just wondering about those who bought BTC for $20000. Its really hard to imagine how things turned from Dec2017 - Dec2018. I hope the market is slowly recovering and there are few changes from the last week as well. I guess we are going towards bull run.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: fabiorem on December 22, 2018, 07:48:12 PM

It's not a "correction". A correction imply that there is a constant, and balanced, rise in the price.

it doesn't imply a constant or balanced rise, just that it rises on average. if you draw a regression of price back to bitcoin's launch (or the first recorded markets) there is an unmistakable uptrend.

Quote from: fabiorem on December 22, 2018, 07:48:12 PM

This is pure and simple manipulation. Bitmain is sinking, so they are dumping their coins to cover their expenses. This was caused by the BCH hashwars.

Also, there is no coincidence here, as these crashes are all planned by these whales.

i'm sure the hash war had some effect, but i don't think causation is conclusive at all. bitmain and coingeek also have quite a lot more bcash than bitcoin to dump.

Quote from: fabiorem on December 22, 2018, 07:48:12 PM

I think this bear market is worse than the one from 2013-2015. Because at that time, trade was centralized around Mt.Gox, now its not. If it was as centralized as it was at that time, we would be in a much lower price.

china ruled the market back then, not gox. and while gox had massive wallet holdings, it had less trading volume than bitfinex+bitstamp combined, not to mention other exchanges like btc-e.

Quote from: fabiorem on December 22, 2018, 07:48:12 PM

Three digits is still possible. If it was not, we would be back at least to 6k already. But the manipulation is heavy.

it's always been possible. i'd still say it's unlikely.

fabiorem

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It's not a "correction". A correction imply that there is a constant, and balanced, rise in the price.

This is pure and simple manipulation. Bitmain is sinking, so they are dumping their coins to cover their expenses. This was caused by the BCH hashwars.

Also, there is no coincidence here, as these crashes are all planned by these whales.

I think this bear market is worse than the one from 2013-2015. Because at that time, trade was centralized around Mt.Gox, now its not. If it was as centralized as it was at that time, we would be in a much lower price.

I used to believe in those cycles. But it only happened once, in 2013-2015. In 2011 there was a worse fall than the one of 2013-2015, and it was not considered as a cycle.

It is all irregular and irrational. You need to be prepared. Three digits is still possible. If it was not, we would be back at least to 6k already. But the manipulation is heavy.

1Referee

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Quote from: Wilhelm on December 22, 2018, 07:48:28 AM

If everyone thinks it will be the same as the last period it will.
Why? because people are all anticipating the same, placing the same trades and thus making the market react accordingly.
Since we have many inexperienced traders I do believe we will go to the moon again.

Seems like a perfect way for market movers to plan opposite moves. In the last couple of months we have definitely seen that the majority anticipating on an increase is definitely not enough to make it happen. It has been extremely rewarding to hedge the sentiment of the mass so far, and I don't see it change to be honest, or at least not any time soon.

In the same way that could very well apply to the $3000 level. I'm sure that many traders before the current bounce were eagerly waiting to open shorts the moment it looked like it would test the $3000 level, but it didn't. I don't know what to expect of the current market, therefore I don't expect anything. I'll enjoy the ride up if it's up, and I'll enjoy the ride down if it's down and add more BTC to my existing holdings.

Kevin77

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Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves and assume that bitcoin just recovered and the bear period ended. The problem with assuming bitcoin is doing better has never worked well for us. Think about the initial run of bear market, the price dropped from 20 thousand dollars to 6 thousand dollars quite easily but during the summer we have seen bitcoin reach from 6 thousand to over 7 thousand dollars couple of times and it kept happening couple of times in a row and than stayed at around 6.5 thousand dollars for MONTHS.

Afterwards we had one bad sell off and than price went as low as 3200 dollars. Now that we recovered a bit it doesn't mean it will fall back again but it doesn't mean bear is over neither, we just simply don't know what will happen. I hope it will go up again however if it doesn't we shouldn't be shocked.

jimbo2000

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Quote from: Wilhelm on December 22, 2018, 07:48:28 AM

If everyone thinks it will be the same as the last period it will.
Why? because people are all anticipating the same, placing the same trades and thus making the market react accordingly.
Since we have many inexperienced traders I do believe we will go to the moon again.

Self-fulfilling prophecy. There's a good chance that could be true. I for one don't see BTC following the same path as previously. I think the next high won't be as high and that the market won't go sideways for a whole year, there's too much development ongoing for that to occur.

Wilhelm

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If everyone thinks it will be the same as the last period it will.
Why? because people are all anticipating the same, placing the same trades and thus making the market react accordingly.
Since we have many inexperienced traders I do believe we will go to the moon again.

Pumapipa

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Activity: 462

Merit: 100

Bitcoin cannot go to moon without stepping on some rocks before its destination. This is what happened to bitcoin's journey to $20,000. I have read some threads pertaining to same trend as few years back. but you see, even if bitcoin suffered from a major fall, it still came out stronger and still dominates market when it comes to market capitalizations. I believe that this is just a season and bitcoin will recover from this. Some of you will agree with me--- bitcoin is indispensible.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

Yes, I remember that in 2013/2014 almost the same as what we saw right now but I don't know what was happen before 2013/2014 because I don't know about crypto before. I only remember that in that year, bitcoin price is on the low price and as my friend said, it's because Mt.Gox tragedy and people don't trust with the crypto. But after 2015, bitcoin raise and reach the higher price, and it triggers all coins do the same thing as bitcoin. I think this year have similarity as 2013/2014 so we still waiting for what will happen in the next year.

glowing10

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Quote from: Lmaooo on December 19, 2018, 08:05:56 AM

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?

Yes we do remember how market had fallen in 2013 - 2014 that is the reason I am telling people that this is not he panic mode of this time fall as it has even fallen worst before. Also due to volatility market will keep on rising and keep on falling and do not have to worry or create a huge panic in the market which lead to negative sentiments. Good thing is that market have started to recover now.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

Quote from: davis196 on December 20, 2018, 08:33:53 AM

That's just a coincidence.

it is not a coincidence anymore it is people's expectations that shaped this trend exactly like the previous one!

in other words there is absolutely no similarity between the two scenarios, as you said it was MtGox and all that back then and there are a lot of other differences that makes them completely different. but the problem is that majority of the market participants were speculating purely based on previous trend and have been expecting it to happen. about 12 months worth of speculation is documented on this forum, reddit and tradingview where people tried so hard to put the two charts on top of each other and will the market into going that route.
and guess what, when enough people speculate something it actually happens because they will not just speculate it, they will also sell because of it and wait to buy back when their targets are reached.

Topic: The bear period (December 17, 2017 - December 17, 2018) (Read 440 times)