The bears are losing their grip - page 4.

oda.krell

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Quote from: NotLambchop on February 19, 2015, 09:31:18 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on February 19, 2015, 08:34:00 AM

... when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up...

... it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction... The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again...

Some might conclude that news doesn't drive the price, but not Bitcoiners. No. To them this points to "changing sentimen" Roll Eyes

Lrn2readplox.

Nobody said news determines (or "drives") price, least of them all masterluc.

Fact is, news have a "point" effect on the market, and that point effect can reveal an underlying market bias.

Example, SR crash in late 2013: SR news hits --> panic, then sharp crash (the "point" effect of the news. meaningless to argue the crash wasn't due to SR) --> as a result of the price drop, immediate rise of buying pressure. hidden bulls salivating at the low prices. almost immediately total reversal. rally time.

The last part: that's the "reveal of the bias" aspect of news hitting. That's what (I believe) OP had in mind.

abercrombie

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The only positive news is that BTC only crashed 2.5% after the announcement of the 50k U.S. Marshall auction.

It seems very compressed.

BitCoinNutJob

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Maybe we are at a point for the first time in ages where good news could spark a reversal and bad news doesnt seem to be changing much.

NotLambchop

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Quote from: oda.krell on February 19, 2015, 08:34:00 AM

... when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up...

... it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction... The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again...

Some might conclude that news doesn't drive the price, but not Bitcoiners. No. To them this points to "changing sentimen" Roll Eyes

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on February 19, 2015, 09:06:47 AM

I think it should be a more generalized statement in that "News has little effect" on price unless it is Earth shattering news.

^^^This.

Technicals > news

Trade charts, not news.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: oda.krell on February 19, 2015, 08:34:00 AM

(Cautiously) agreed, Miz4r .

I remember an interesting comment by masterluc a while ago, when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up: he took that event (strong bullish news in terms of BTC mainstream acceptance, but market reaction only "meh") as a sign that the market still had a very bearish bias.

In my opinion, it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction, while no huge deal (the coins are worth ~12.5 days of mining), is still bearish in the sense that it adds a good chunk to the immediately available supply side. The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again, but as a reaction to bad news.

I still half expect another $150 to $200 dip and re-test, but the market state slowly appears to be changing from "good news has little effect" to "bad news has little effect". We'll see if it stays like that...

I think it should be a more generalized statement in that "News has little effect" on price unless it is Earth shattering news. Gox had it's effect because it was the first large scale exchange to close and it took a shitton of people's funds, but I also think it desensitized the market against exchange failure. Bter isn't a big deal in comparison. The theft there is only worth 2 days of mining (I like that valuation basis, BTW Wink

). Long term repercussions of the Stamp hack remain to be seen (eventual insolvency or closure) but they seem to have handled it properly.

We've had two SR auctions so there may be little effect there too. The first one spurred a rally (may just be coincidence) and the second one was during downtrend. So your guess is as good as mine how this next one will go over.

oda.krell

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(Cautiously) agreed, Miz4r .

I remember an interesting comment by masterluc a while ago, when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up: he took that event (strong bullish news in terms of BTC mainstream acceptance, but market reaction only "meh") as a sign that the market still had a very bearish bias.

In my opinion, it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction, while no huge deal (the coins are worth ~12.5 days of mining), is still bearish in the sense that it adds a good chunk to the immediately available supply side. The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again, but as a reaction to bad news.

I still half expect another $150 to $200 dip and re-test, but the market state slowly appears to be changing from "good news has little effect" to "bad news has little effect". We'll see if it stays like that...

Miz4r

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You definitely don't want to rely on news these days. I follow technicals mostly nowadays to get an idea where the price is going next. I use a mixture of indicators, a little bit of EW theory for a more longer term perspective of cycles and my own intuition. I've been wrong before, but I don't create many topics here and usually I seem to make them just before a big move up. But yeah, if you want to play it safe you should wait for the breakout before buying.

uki

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cryptojunk bag holder

I would love to see the reversal of the last year trend, but we are not out of the woods, just as of yet.
The last year's downtrend line is still intact.
The recent news are played on both sides, bears have: BTER exchange, US Marshall auction, ..., whereas bulls: ETF, Chinese investments, ... (you name what is missing).
There is also blocksize limit discussion somewhere in the background, played by both parties. No clear winner in the headlines.
I don't see clear direction as for now, we may as well stay in the sideways trend for a while.

HarmonLi

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Honest 80s business!

Quote from: EvilPanda on February 19, 2015, 08:17:15 AM

Bitcoin market is so unpredictable that a single big news can change the way we're going. The trend is still up if we ignore the bubbles and focus on the lows, not the highs.

The thing is... "big news" don't seem to do it for Bitcoin anymore. The price will go up nonetheless if you ask me, but we shouldn't place too much hope or money/BTC on good news. This is especially remarkable since Bitcoin is a highly volatile assets otherwise.

EvilPanda

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Small Red and Bad

Bitcoin market is so unpredictable that a single big news can change the way we're going. The trend is still up if we ignore the bubbles and focus on the lows, not the highs.

chennan

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No one exactly knows the trend of the future. We need to wait for the breakout signal of upward moving. Or you are a true believer, and just buy up the cheap coins.

Q7

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I think more important here is the fundamental. As long as we can see wider adoption and more people joining bitcoin, the buying support will always be there. Thus no matter how hard the bears tried to push the price down, it will just be artificial as slowly it will go up again due to strong underlying fundamental.

bitwarrior

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Hoping to see a trend reversal soon, It has been more than a month since we saw those $300 range values on the exchanges. Hoping for a $350ish value also since the last time I saw those values were since last year.

Miz4r

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on February 19, 2015, 07:59:43 AM

Once a short term bottom is established, it can takes months to find new lows, doesn't necessarily mean that the market is showing signs of a reversal.
Look at what happened right after the $275 october bottom...

Still very early to say that "bear are losing their grip".

Could very well be that a double bottom or lower bottom will form in a few more months from now, but I'm just sensing right now that bear hopium is running out so for the short term at least I'm optimistic. A breakout of this wedge would look very bullish though with the daily MACD going positive and the weekly MACD crossing soon after. Bears would need a little time-out after that at least.

HarmonLi

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Honest 80s business!

The mere fact that the slow bleeding out stopped is evidence enough that we're at a point where there's a real chance to turn the market around and enter a bull-market again. We're not at a trend-reversal just yet, but may be just at the brink of one!

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Once a short term bottom is established, it can take months to find new lows, doesn't necessarily mean that the market is showing signs of a reversal.
Look at what happened right after the $275 october bottom...

Still very early to say that "bear are losing their grip".

Miz4r

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Quote from: Ultros on February 19, 2015, 07:56:36 AM

That statement could have been true multiple times this past year and we know what happened. I'm not saying you're wrong, in fact I have the same feeling, but that's just it: a feeling. I'd stay very cautious before we break the resistance on good volume and close at least a daily candle above it.

It's true bulls have tried before when we spiked to 680 and 480 respectively but that was too early still. But you know what they say, the third time is the charm. Wink

Ultros

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That statement could have been true multiple times this past year and we know what happened. I'm not saying you're wrong, in fact I have the same feeling, but that's just it: a feeling. I'd stay very cautious before we break the resistance on good volume and close at least a daily candle above it.

brokenchair

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I like your theory.
The only problem is someone/something dumps coins every morning as I drink my coffee still. I have no idea why this happens every morning, but the day I see the price actual increase before I go to work, I will be happy about a reversal, rally, whatever.

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