The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart. - page 4.

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1092

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: ?? on ??

the price wont go back to where it started, because then nothing would've been achieved.

It doesn't have to, that chart is just an extreme example. Nevertheless, corrective waves can get fairly close to where previous bubbles took off (see bitcoin in 2011 for example).

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: IIOII on March 29, 2014, 03:29:12 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale Tongue

good observation, John999.

--arepo

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: Wekkel on March 29, 2014, 03:29:36 PM

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

Yes, what's your guess?

Myself, I think breakout may occur sometime before july.

I'm ballparking a 90% chance it will be to the upside.

IIOII

legendary

Activity: 1153

Merit: 1012

Quote from: g4c on March 29, 2014, 03:39:19 PM

Quote from: IIOII on March 29, 2014, 03:29:12 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1092

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: cbutters on March 29, 2014, 03:31:01 PM

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

Some bubbles belonged to the same general wave (the two of 2013 for example). Consensus among EW chartists is that bitcoin currently is in a corrective wave C of major wave 3.

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: Dalmar on March 29, 2014, 03:23:01 PM

What goes up, ~~must~~ may come down.
...

Fixed for you.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1006

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: IIOII on March 29, 2014, 03:29:12 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

I'm not sure bitstamp data includes it.

here's all bitstamp data in log scale:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

knightcoin

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Stand on the shoulders of giants

Quote from: Dalmar on March 29, 2014, 03:23:01 PM

What goes up, must come down.

I wish that would be true to mining difficult Cheesy

cbutters

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dalmar on March 29, 2014, 03:23:01 PM

What goes up, must come down.

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

Wekkel

legendary

Activity: 3108

Merit: 1531

yes

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

IIOII

legendary

Activity: 1153

Merit: 1012

Quote from: ?? on ??

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1092

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

What goes up, must come down.

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: cbeast on March 29, 2014, 03:14:50 PM

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

Yes, it would appear that way from the data available.

Each over-ring seems more volatile, even on the log scale.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1006

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

g4c

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Below is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin price history (Bitstamp USD).

In technical analysis, the blue trapezoids are known as "falling pennants", they tend to lead to breakouts.

In overbought conditions, as has been the case in all BTC rises to date, the pennant that follows will almost always breakout to the upside.

In this chart we can see fairly periodic pennants with breakouts to the upside, the price staying within the logarithmic channel.

Topic: The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart. - page 4. (Read 12013 times)