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Topic: The big RESET - will bitcoin be ready ? (Read 3116 times)

legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1001
June 02, 2012, 06:58:02 AM
#26
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.
I think it will be very much like the collapse of the USSR but not quite as bad because the average person today has a lot more resources and opportunities available (thus ability to adapt) to them than the average Soviet subject had.

IMO you are badly wrong on this one. This would be understandable since you likely was not a "soviet subject" at the time and rely on "brainwashing" standards of CNN/BBC and other Murdoch's products. The simple fact is that "soviet subjects" at the time were significantly more resilient than you think. Many large industrial conglomerates had loads of reserves and were effectively mini-cities, with most infrastructure run "in house" from kindergartens to transport and food production. Most of population had some kind of small time agricultural thing going on growing crops for own consumption, most of population lived in 3 generation households with  close ties with extended families. Most of population had no debts whatsoever. This gave them load of resilience and ability to survive for years while shops were effectively empty.

Now in UK, for example, reportedly there is only 3 days worth of food in supermarkets, most families are nuclear, have no reserves whatsoever and live hand to mouth with huge proportion of population relying heavily on government handouts. There is statistics that an average UK household has less than one month worth of financial reserves and otherwise are heavily in debt. Soviet style collapse will be much more difficult for the West. The supply chain works on just-in-time supply paradigm, once the machine stops it will be a catastrophic collapse in one-two weeks time.


+1 You are most likely right.

But, if such a breakdown happens there are ways to deal with it in the West as well. Examples are the Great Depression in the US with open soup kitchens and the enormous Welfare programs of the time aka The New Deal. Germans chopped off trees in parks and the city in post WWII in order to heat asnd cook. There are enough water supplies and all kinds of natural resources in Central Europe, and infrastructure is well-built. There are huge silos with wheat reserves for many months, gas reserves for 3+ months (thank you Russia). Solidarity among neighbors isn't as bad as one may think. Not only in Europe I would claim that families would reunite in times of great emergency. Memories of War are still quite fresh with most families having lost some family member/grandparent in that greatest clusterfuck of the 20th century. Many families in Central/Eastern Europe still remember what it means to live in scarcity from the times of the Cold War very much like in Russia. I suppose since the US is one of the world's biggest agricultural producers, many families would move back to the countryside and try farming for survival. But you are right, this generation would be already puzzled over how to charge their smartphones in case shit hits the fan.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
-
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.
I think it will be very much like the collapse of the USSR but not quite as bad because the average person today has a lot more resources and opportunities available (thus ability to adapt) to them than the average Soviet subject had.

IMO you are badly wrong on this one. This would be understandable since you likely was not a "soviet subject" at the time and rely on "brainwashing" standards of CNN/BBC and other Murdoch's products. The simple fact is that "soviet subjects" at the time were significantly more resilient than you think. Many large industrial conglomerates had loads of reserves and were effectively mini-cities, with most infrastructure run "in house" from kindergartens to transport and food production. Most of population had some kind of small time agricultural thing going on growing crops for own consumption, most of population lived in 3 generation households with  close ties with extended families. Most of population had no debts whatsoever. This gave them load of resilience and ability to survive for years while shops were effectively empty.

Now in UK, for example, reportedly there is only 3 days worth of food in supermarkets, most families are nuclear, have no reserves whatsoever and live hand to mouth with huge proportion of population relying heavily on government handouts. There is statistics that an average UK household has less than one month worth of financial reserves and otherwise are heavily in debt. Soviet style collapse will be much more difficult for the West. The supply chain works on just-in-time supply paradigm, once the machine stops it will be a catastrophic collapse in one-two weeks time.



legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Quote
we risk a closure of the stock markets entirely closure of the stock markets entirely and a closure of the banking system

like the banks would actually let everyone default all at once....
where's the profit in that  Huh

this is a load of crap.
hero member
Activity: 836
Merit: 1007
"How do you eat an elephant? One bit at a time..."
Yes Bitcoin is prepared. However I don't think the exchanges are prepared since any kind of capital controls will severely restrict their operations. As a community I think we should be doing more to encourage person to person exchanges.

+1 Yes, develop your personal trading networks now.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.

I myself have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time, specifically 21st dec 2012 the world reaches a tipping point of (for lack of a better term) "awakened slaves" and smelly hippy protests turn into massive political movements that sweep up the whole world

I for one welcome our new insect/reptillian/robot/smelly hippy overlords
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1276
The dinosaurs failed, I heard they were pretty big.

One could argue that the evolved into the birds so I would not call it a total fail.

It would be somewhat more accurate to say that the birds evolved from the dinosaurs, and more accurate yet to say that the dinosaur lines which died off (all of them) had common ancestors with the birds and that those common ancestors were classifiable as forms of dinosaurs.

But whatever the case, a lot of lessons can be learned from biology and many of them can be applied with startling directness to other fields of science and engineering.  Not the least of them, computer related ones.

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 501
There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.

+1

+2
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 506
The dinosaurs failed, I heard they were pretty big.


LOL nice one
member
Activity: 87
Merit: 10
The dinosaurs failed, I heard they were pretty big.
Vod
legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 3010
Licking my boob since 1970
This is a thought provoking presentation by Raoul Pal, a hedge fund manager, about the current state of the world economy and banking system:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/95493792/The-End-Game

I just hope Bitcoin will be ready to serve the masses if/when it happens.

And if Bitcoin ever were to fail, Microcash is there!

I feel so peaceful sleeping at night.   Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1066
Remind me, what does "fail" mean in this context?

If you think of debt as an I-owe-you then "fail" in this context means widespread default or devaluation of the currency in real terms. In simpler English: lots of broken promises.

Promises like:
'I promise to give you a decent pension in return for a lifetime's work'
'All you contractors build me a house/ factory and I promise to pay you back'
'Lend me 5 years of your savings and I promise you will get the capital sum plus interest back'

Argentina in 2001 is probably the closest example I can think of, but writ large. If you google "Argentina corralito" you will get a flavour for the real world effects.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
Obviously they weren't big enough.
It's a good thing we got nearly the entire world in on the debt Ponzi this time. The US, EU, Japan, and the BRIC countries together are surely too big to fail, right?

Remind me, what does "fail" mean in this context?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
Obviously they weren't big enough.
It's a good thing we got nearly the entire world in on the debt Ponzi this time. The US, EU, Japan, and the BRIC countries together are surely too big to fail, right?
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
America is too big to fail.   Undecided
Aztec.
Inca.
Maya.
Rome.
Byzantine.
The Mongol Empire.
U.S.S.R.

 Wink

Obviously they weren't big enough.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
America is too big to fail.   Undecided
Aztec.
Inca.
Maya.
Rome.
Byzantine.
The Mongol Empire.
U.S.S.R.

 Wink
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
America is too big to fail.   Undecided
member
Activity: 87
Merit: 10
Its one big Ponzi scheme, and ponzis always collapse. Many people on this forum will attest to that.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
June 01, 2012, 01:46:20 PM
#9
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.
I think it will be very much like the collapse of the USSR but not quite as bad because the average person today has a lot more resources and opportunities available (thus ability to adapt) to them than the average Soviet subject had.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1008
If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
June 01, 2012, 01:18:46 PM
#8
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.
+1
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 508
Firstbits: 1waspoza
June 01, 2012, 12:17:19 PM
#7
People have been predicting this kind of thing for a long time.  Society will route around problems.  Things might get turbulent, but it's unlikely to get anywhere nears as bad as "the end of finance" or "the end of the world".  IOW, chill the fuck out.

+1
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