I'll stand agreed with both franky1 and NeuroticFish here. I don't believe we're in the end of the cycle, we're about somewhere in the middle. There's room for more liquidation, and in fact, I believe this is going to be a longer cycle as well, in comparison with 2012-2015 and 2015-2019. Maybe from now on, due to higher standards and more mature heads, it's going to take us longer to complete cycles.
But, due to some serious unpredictability, I'm hodling.
Topic: The Birth of a Cycle (Current Bitcoin 4 year cycle is about to end) - page 2. (Read 309 times)
November 08, 2022, 12:38:24 PM
November 08, 2022, 12:24:43 PM
This 4 year cycle is a bull and bear cycle OP. The other cycle is a halving event as correctly mentioned by Franky. So when you say it is not about bull and bear cycle, you are wrong. Based on the past events, we have derived it as a 4 years cycle but there's no guarantee that it will respond in a similar manner like the past. So that's speculation.
The only prominent cycle of bitcoin is halving and we are still have some time to reach there.
The only prominent cycle of bitcoin is halving and we are still have some time to reach there.
November 08, 2022, 10:18:03 AM
While I've seen other traders too counting the cycles from ATH to ATH or from bottom to bottom, I find it a bad way to see that, I find it a way you can easily go wrong.
On the other hand, halving to halving is just fine. One cannot miss that. So I agree with franky1 on this: we're not at the end of a cycle.
On the other hand, yes, based on historical movements it's expected the market to turn bullish in the near future. Some say the bottom is near, some say the bottom was already in. We will see. With the future.. you never know which predictions were right, if any.
November 08, 2022, 10:12:20 AM
cycles are based on the halving events..
we are at "mid term" not the end
i personally never base "cycles" on the short term events of a ATH because bitcoin VALUE (not price) is not based on the highs.. but the new raised lows
if you ignore the highs (because not many people actually trade at the high)
and instead look at the lows. (because everyone trades at or above))
2012's ~$6
2016's ~$450
2020's ~$4k
all show the lowest value (store of value) line of bitcoin
...
the prices above the lows are speculative/random/temporary
these speculative amounts are premiums above the 'new bottom' value
that are speculative and temporary as the markets try to find the new raise low/bottom of each cycle
we are at "mid term" not the end
i personally never base "cycles" on the short term events of a ATH because bitcoin VALUE (not price) is not based on the highs.. but the new raised lows
if you ignore the highs (because not many people actually trade at the high)
and instead look at the lows. (because everyone trades at or above))
2012's ~$6
2016's ~$450
2020's ~$4k
all show the lowest value (store of value) line of bitcoin
...
the prices above the lows are speculative/random/temporary
these speculative amounts are premiums above the 'new bottom' value
that are speculative and temporary as the markets try to find the new raise low/bottom of each cycle
November 08, 2022, 09:22:46 AM
I was browsing Youtube videos when I stumbled this video by Bob Loukas. The video is all about an end of the cycle and a birth of a new one. It tackles that Bitcoin is possibly in a transition if not already transitioned to a new cycle. This does not necessary means Bear market transitioning to Bull market but rather the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is about to end.
Quote from: Bob Loukas
Nearly 4 years since the first, a new Cycle is approaching
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