The bitcoin charade | Bitcointalksearch.org

Hunterbunter

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Quote from: Edward50 on February 05, 2012, 01:45:27 PM

I am surprised so many of you have faith in bitcoin which is obviously just another form of online gambling. A price that is unstable and set by which side of the bitcoin gamblers want to push it.

A person could certainly treat the BTC network as a speculative opportunity, to raise the number of USD/EUR/whatever that they have. These people have no interest in BTCs other than another commodity to trade, and merely try to take advantage of gross lopsided opportunities. Since they are all competing to out-do each other, the net effect is price volatility, but also liquidity in the market.

There is a second group of people for whom bitcoins are a paradigm shift in the globalization of currencies. A digital, decentralized non-counterfeit-able marker of value is a big deal, from the perspectives of wealth transfer and ease of use (once "inside"). For these people, who are starting to think in terms of living in and earning BTC, the exchange rate only becomes an issue when people don't accept btc's for goods or services. If you know you can earn 5 btc/day (or something), then you have up to 5 btc a day to spend on whatever you need to live.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Technomage on February 06, 2012, 05:14:29 PM

Quote from: cheat_2_win on February 06, 2012, 03:47:09 PM

You might have been correct to say that six months ago. Now, dropping even tens of thousands of bitcoins in the market at once has very little effect in the price. If you look at the market depth some months back, you will see around 40000-50000 BTC. Now, it has almost become normal to see 100000 BTC.

We are also seeing less and less panic selling now than we used to see before.

For me, bitcoin is like a stock of a startup company. You never know whether it is going to succeed or not. But if it does, the payoff will be huge. So, never invest what you can not afford to lose.

+1

This is how I see it as well.

I'm more in line with BenRayfield in that it's a series of paradigm shifts. The grass roots effort will take too long to evolve. Fortunately (or not so), because it's all about money, there is a lot to offer for cash rich investors to get in on the ground floor with little risk.

Technomage

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Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: cheat_2_win on February 06, 2012, 03:47:09 PM

You might have been correct to say that six months ago. Now, dropping even tens of thousands of bitcoins in the market at once has very little effect in the price. If you look at the market depth some months back, you will see around 40000-50000 BTC. Now, it has almost become normal to see 100000 BTC.

We are also seeing less and less panic selling now than we used to see before.

For me, bitcoin is like a stock of a startup company. You never know whether it is going to succeed or not. But if it does, the payoff will be huge. So, never invest what you can not afford to lose.

+1

This is how I see it as well.

cheat_2_win

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Quote from: cbeast on February 06, 2012, 02:45:55 PM

Quote from: gewure on February 06, 2012, 01:32:36 PM

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 01:13:52 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

lol.

..seriously, STOP THE FUD. don't you see what you do to half the ppl who come into this speculation forum?! - you make them cynical bears which leech for bitcoins death in order to profit a little bit.

i can't tell you how wrong the quote above me is.

sell some hundred coins -> nothing happens! seriously, what else do you exspect?!

sell some thousand coins -> nothing happens!

sell some hundred thousand coins -> price drops, yes, what the fuck else?!

disclaimer: excuse my rant, i kind of ate a neo-stalinist today..

Maybe I was exaggerating a bit, but the price of Bitcoin fluctuates hundreds of percent just based on someone buying or selling a few tenths of a percent of the available Bitcoin. I agree that I would and do buy Bitcoin regularly at the available price when funds are available. I watch mtgox live, and it does not take trading more than a few thousand Bitcoin to significantly change the price.

You might have been correct to say that six months ago. Now, dropping even tens of thousands of bitcoins in the market at once has very little effect in the price. If you look at the market depth some months back, you will see around 40000-50000 BTC. Now, it has almost become normal to see 100000 BTC.

We are also seeing less and less panic selling now than we used to see before.

For me, bitcoin is like a stock of a startup company. You never know whether it is going to succeed or not. But if it does, the payoff will be huge. So, never invest what you can not afford to lose.

JusticeForYou

vip

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What one calls gambling another calls speculating.

Is speculating good or bad for a market?

The biggest outrage that most would complain about is 'Cornering of the Market.' However, even a Cornered Market behaves in predictable ways. Some might say, more so because it is in the interest for the people doing the Cornering to maintain a price. i.e. Debeers

I believe things are maturing with bitcoins and their development. Although node shrinkage has me a little concerned.

Next Up: The BTC Spot Market for miners.

Crypt_Current

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Shame on everything; regret nothing.

Quote from: cbeast on February 06, 2012, 02:45:55 PM

Quote from: gewure on February 06, 2012, 01:32:36 PM

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 01:13:52 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

lol.

..seriously, STOP THE FUD. don't you see what you do to half the ppl who come into this speculation forum?! - you make them cynical bears which leech for bitcoins death in order to profit a little bit.

i can't tell you how wrong the quote above me is.

sell some hundred coins -> nothing happens! seriously, what else do you exspect?!

sell some thousand coins -> nothing happens!

sell some hundred thousand coins -> price drops, yes, what the fuck else?!

disclaimer: excuse my rant, i kind of ate a neo-stalinist today..

Maybe I was exaggerating a bit, but the price of Bitcoin fluctuates hundreds of percent just based on someone buying or selling a few tenths of a percent of the available Bitcoin. I agree that I would and do buy Bitcoin regularly at the available price when funds are available. I watch mtgox live, and it does not take trading more than a few thousand Bitcoin to significantly change the price.

"ONLY a few thousand, MERE DROPS, MWAHAHAHAHA"... ::: adjusts monacle, tips top hat :::

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: gewure on February 06, 2012, 01:32:36 PM

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 01:13:52 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

lol.

..seriously, STOP THE FUD. don't you see what you do to half the ppl who come into this speculation forum?! - you make them cynical bears which leech for bitcoins death in order to profit a little bit.

i can't tell you how wrong the quote above me is.

sell some hundred coins -> nothing happens! seriously, what else do you exspect?!

sell some thousand coins -> nothing happens!

sell some hundred thousand coins -> price drops, yes, what the fuck else?!

disclaimer: excuse my rant, i kind of ate a neo-stalinist today..

Maybe I was exaggerating a bit, but the price of Bitcoin fluctuates hundreds of percent just based on someone buying or selling a few tenths of a percent of the available Bitcoin. I agree that I would and do buy Bitcoin regularly at the available price when funds are available. I watch mtgox live, and it does not take trading more than a few thousand Bitcoin to significantly change the price.

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 02:14:09 PM

Gewue, moderate yourself. I was asking because it didn't seem right.

I think the rant was directed at cbeast, not you. Your question seemed genuine enough.

alan2here

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WorkAsPro

Gewue, moderate yourself. I was asking because it didn't seem right.

Explodicle

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FWIW if Bitcoins dropped to pennies I would buy a shitload of them, but I don't have any standing buy orders. You have no way of measuring how many people would actually buy in at $1-3.

gewure

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

[#][#][#]

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 01:13:52 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

lol.

..seriously, STOP THE FUD. don't you see what you do to half the ppl who come into this speculation forum?! - you make them cynical bears which leech for bitcoins death in order to profit a little bit.

i can't tell you how wrong the quote above me is.

sell some hundred coins -> nothing happens! seriously, what else do you exspect?!

sell some thousand coins -> nothing happens!

sell some hundred thousand coins -> price drops, yes, what the fuck else?!

disclaimer: excuse my rant, i kind of ate a neo-stalinist today..

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: alan2here on February 06, 2012, 01:13:52 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

This is not true. It would take hundreds of thousands of BTC to clear the current orderbook, but that is not nearly enough to drive the price down to pennies sustainably. It would require a sell-off of probably millions of BTC to keep us at below $1.

alan2here

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WorkAsPro

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies.

Is this true? That would mean selling a few hundred BTC would drop the market to pennies.

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: stochastic on February 06, 2012, 11:54:26 AM

I think it is a pretty silly to say "invest in bitcoins." I don't invest in USD, CAD, EUR, RMB. I speculate for quick profits. I don't hoard USD in my bank account or in my closet. I keep 6 months of cash for emergencies. The rest of my investments are in things that bring cash flow, real estate, stocks, bonds, ect.

Comparing Bitcoin to USD or EUR doesn't make sense. From an investing perspective Bitcoin is closer to gold or a technology stock than it is to any actual currency. Bitcoins are a useful and very scarce commodity that is certainly worth investing in. It's high risk though and that's the part that compares well to technology stocks. From pure economics perspective it's much closer to gold than USD/EUR, don't tell me that gold can't be an investment.

My only investments (since 2008) are gold and bitcoins. That's it. The rest is in EUR and most of my EUR is going to my soon to start Bitcoin startup company. Reason for this approach is that I don't put much faith in the economy right now. It's better to play it safe when there is a possibility, this decade, of a depression that rivals the great depression.

stochastic

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Quote from: Edward50 on February 05, 2012, 01:45:27 PM

...I am surprised so many of you have faith in bitcoin which is obviously just another form of online gambling. A price that is unstable and set by which side of the bitcoin gamblers want to push it.

My take on the current bitcoin market is:
Right now seems like the gamblers who want the price to go down are slowly winning...

Speculation (i.e. gamblers) is what makes stable markets. They bring liquidity into the market that allows normal people to convert fiat for bitcoin or to hedge their bitcoin in case of price volatility. It is not speculation that is causing the volatility, it is the thin market of people actually using bitcoins for real world items and services.

Quote from: StewartJ on February 05, 2012, 02:41:21 PM

...Cannot invest in Bitcoins because of this...

I think it is a pretty silly to say "invest in bitcoins." I don't invest in USD, CAD, EUR, RMB. I speculate for quick profits. I don't hoard USD in my bank account or in my closet. I keep 6 months of cash for emergencies. The rest of my investments are in things that bring cash flow, real estate, stocks, bonds, ect.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: bb113 on February 05, 2012, 02:35:37 PM

Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

That makes the value of Bitcoin purely specualtive and worthless unless something happens soon to make it a useful currency.

Isn't the probability of something happening "soon" (for multiple definitions of soon) the driver of the speculation?

That is only part of the value. The more useful Bitcoin becomes, the higher it will drive speculation. Right now, there is little usefulness and the floor went to pennies in June. Mt Gox took the blame for that one, but it can happen again if Bitcoin is not adopted by a niche market. If Bitcoin finds a niche market that is in the billions of USD, then Bitcoin will find a new floor to speculate around.

StewartJ

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Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

Has anyone noticed that the volume of buy and sell orders is roughly equal? This speculation is just a game mostly played by bots. The market Cap of Bitcoin isn't in the millions, it's in the thousands. If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies. That makes the value of Bitcoin purely specualtive and worthless unless something happens soon to make it a useful currency.

Cannot invest in Bitcoins because of this.

The downfall of Bitcoin will happen because it's relegated to centralized, manipulated, margin-traded USD exchanges.

Sure, it's fine for internet cash, but trade at your own risk.

bb113

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Quote from: cbeast on February 05, 2012, 02:14:07 PM

That makes the value of Bitcoin purely specualtive and worthless unless something happens soon to make it a useful currency.

Isn't the probability of something happening "soon" (for multiple definitions of soon) the driver of the speculation?

cbeast

donator

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Has anyone noticed that the volume of buy and sell orders is roughly equal? This speculation is just a game mostly played by bots. The market Cap of Bitcoin isn't in the millions, it's in the thousands. If someone suddenly decided to sell a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoin, the price would drop to pennies. That makes the value of Bitcoin purely specualtive and worthless unless something happens soon to make it a useful currency.

the joint

legendary

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The wall at 6.05 is there from the 10,000+ buy at around 5.95. The price didn't go up as he'd hoped and right now it's a little too late to sell unless he wants to take a $5,000 hit.

Topic: The bitcoin charade (Read 2888 times)