The Bitcoin Price Increase: WHY DID NO ONE EXPECT IT?

arvis

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Quote from: azguard on November 10, 2015, 07:32:39 AM

Quote from: Amph on November 10, 2015, 03:44:26 AM

with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

it will be but seem like 400 is wall that need climb first
stable price is good but most here want jump just not to be bump down

The price seems to be headed back down now. Sad

I thought this rally was sustainable...

mcplums

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Anyone who tries to pin the rise on specific events is an idiot.

The rally happened for the same reason all previous rallies happened, and the same reason all future rises will happen- you can't have stable/decreasing prices and increasing user adoption for ever. Eventually one of them has to end. And it's always the decreasing/stable prices that ends, not the user adoption.

Any specific events you find may have contributed, but they will never be more than the 'straw the broke the camel's back', the rise would still have happened without them just at a different time.

So it is complete nonsense to say that no one expected the rise. Everyone who isn't an idiot expected it at some point. Of course none of us knew when, but so what?

azguard

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Quote from: Amph on November 10, 2015, 03:44:26 AM

with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

it will be but seem like 400 is wall that need climb first
stable price is good but most here want jump just not to be bump down

btcxyzzz

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No one expected it?! Buddy, another bubble is long overdue now. 20x Bitcoin price is just around the corner.

HarryKPeters

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I did not expect a rise nor would anyone else, What Mickey states is right, we are in a downtrend with a few 'highs' where just 2 were caused by the good news (insecurity about the yuan, and the greece dillema(.

The only guess would be the upcoming halving. So yes in a way we are just where we are (no news or signals) 2 months ago, only with a higher rate.

Snail2

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I've expected some rise since the middle of october but never thought that it will be higher than 300, and never thought that it will be such steady rise without wild swings. So, that smooth rally to 500 was quite a surprise. We can explain this upsurge with the Chinese financial restrictions and the good news from the EU, but the volume and price was still surprisingly high.

Mickeyb

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Move On !!!!!!

I think for a simple reason that we were in a 2 year downtrend period where everyone just got used to being negative and not even thinking about being positive.

This is the main reason and even at this moment there are people who believe that it's still not over, the down period.

Amph

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with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

NorrisK

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Quote from: BitcoinVSfiat on November 09, 2015, 07:46:23 PM

How do you know that no one epected it?
Everybody knew that it'll boost from 2xx to 5xx in november. (Because November is oficially bubble month now)

That is ofcourse bullshit.. Those numbers are arbritary and also in 2014 there was no November bubble month..

It was more likely because of a lot of good news and everybody starting to want it to go up, increasing buy pressure as it took off.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

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( You can't see the eyes of the demon, until him come callin' )
\

zimmah

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A lot of people expect the price to rise, we just don't know exact.y when it will happen

But it's pretty much inevitable that it will rise unless Bitcoin will not be used by anyone.

BitcoinVSfiat

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How do you know that no one epected it?
Everybody knew that it'll boost from 2xx to 5xx in november. (Because November is oficially bubble month now)

MatTheCat

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Quote from: jacee on November 09, 2015, 06:31:40 PM

I've seen a lot speculating about it. The thing is bitcoin price escalated too quickly and thus next to impossible it raised to $500 in just a matter of 2 days. So the result is bitcoin price had to drop again and stay at the $300+ line. I yhink wveryone else is expecting for the price to rise again, maybe at the end of november and by 2016.

Like I said, how much of that price increase beyond pretty much where we are now, was due to shorts getting squeezed?

Go take a look at the 12K BTC short position crash on Finex, that accompanied the rally up.

That is what drove the ridiculous run up for sure, and why it came crashing back down so heavily (once the shorts were all out).

vuduchyld

sr. member

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Just to echo the sentiment, I think a LOT of people were expecting the price to rise. It's just that very few real indicators exist as to when that might happen and how much.

I'd further go on to predict that the price will rise again. And I predict the price will fall again. And rise. And fall. And rise. (I'll end with that one, but you get the picture).

I just can't tell you when.

arvis

newbie

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Everybody expected a price increase before the next halving.
They just weren't sure about the timing.

jacee

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I've seen a lot speculating about it. The thing is bitcoin price escalated too quickly and thus next to impossible it raised to $500 in just a matter of 2 days. So the result is bitcoin price had to drop again and stay at the $300+ line. I yhink wveryone else is expecting for the price to rise again, maybe at the end of november and by 2016.

Wexlike

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Quote from: jackg on November 09, 2015, 04:21:49 PM

I believe that the Bitcoin price increase has something to do with the fact that Christmas is only 46 days away! Was no one else expecting this as a result of the economic BOOM of all social classes going out to purchase their Christmas Presents ready for the event. I had already predicted to myself that the bitcoin price will increase around November 1st and will then go back down at around March 1st next year.

In the end of 2014 everyone was telling, that the price is dropping because people are cashing out to buy Christmas presents for they loved ones.

HarryKPeters

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I expected a raise just begin of 2016, since the block halving etc. But so soon and so high.. nope. They all got me on this one.

So guess what, we are halfway there now.. but where will it go now up...or down.. Some insider information will be descretly reviewed and appreciated Wink

MatTheCat

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Quote from: jackg on November 09, 2015, 04:21:49 PM

I believe that the Bitcoin price increase has something to do with the fact that Christmas is only 46 days away! Was no one else expecting this as a result of the economic BOOM of all social classes going out to purchase their Christmas Presents ready for the event. I had already predicted to myself that the bitcoin price will increase around November 1st and will then go back down at around March 1st next year.

I think a lot of people expected a break up to around $360 (where Bitcoin is right now), and then some sort of correction. Indeed, the shorts started piling up at this price point on Finex, and no doubt on the Chinese exchanges also....which is precisely why Bitcoin shot up to $505. A great big dirty fucking short squeeze.

Thing to remember is that Bitcoin is an unregulated market, and you can bet your bottom dollar that their is hooky moneky business going on, on most of the big exchanges, especially those that deal with leverage. The market makers had the buying power, to liquidate the shorts, which pushed up the market way higher than it should have went, whilst the Market Makers sold their coins into the parabolic rise, and are now probably buying back now....or who knows, maybe they plan to be buy back lower still?

koryu

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We were all hoarding them coins over the year

Topic: The Bitcoin Price Increase: WHY DID NO ONE EXPECT IT? (Read 1884 times)