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Topic: The Bitcoin scripting system is purposefully not Turing-complete - why? - page 2. (Read 3386 times)

sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie

Quote
The market value of the Nxt network should reflect the present value of all future (discounted) cash flows.  

more or less true.  It's not just cash flows because the software also supports(and charges for) asset issuance, trades, and other upcoming features like credit and virtual corporations.


When I say cash flows I mean money, not shares of Nxt.  If the software "supports (and charges for) asset issuance, trades, and other upcoming features like credit and virtual corporations," then the Nxt network should earn money for that service and distribute it to its share holders.  


that's precisely what happens.  The TX fees go to the owners of NXT in proportion to their holdings(roughly).  It's a stochastic process.

I suppose the way Nxt earns money is by people buying Nxt (with bitcoin for example) for the purpose of consuming their Nxt tokens to buy some service (rather than forging).  This is what gives you the "E" in the P/E ratio.  So if it costs $1 to issue a "virtual corporation" and that $1 gets used up (distributed across the network to forgers), then the network earned $1.  

I did some quick calculations and at a 10% cost of capital (cryptos are risky), the Nxt network would need to consume about $10,400 / day in fees (for transactions, issuing virtual companies and assets, etc.) to support it's current $38,000,000 market cap.

you are quite confused sir.  When we speak of P/E in NXT we're talking about how much TX fees you earn per NXT.  What you just mentioned here is APPRECIATION or Capital Gains, that's not P/E. 

-bm
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie

Quote
It is generally accepted that the market value of a commodity and the cost to produce that commodity tend to the same price in a free and competitive market. 

these are not concrete economics ideas, sorry.  This is the gold bug mindset and as the story has been told countless times this ignores the effects of credit, innovation and imho the entire premise of civilization itself.  Is man just a resource extractor?


What does this have to do with gold other than gold being an example of a commodity?  The cost to produce corn tends to the market price of corn, the cost to produce aluminum tends to the market price for aluminum, the cost to produce canola oil tends to the market price for canola oil.  The reason is very simple: if the market price for corn is significantly greater than the cost of production, farmers will plant more corn and less potatoes to earn a greater profit. This action will increase the supply of corn, which will tend to reduce its market price, and eventually bring the profit margin for growing corn in line with other produce that could be produced on the same farm.   

Peter,  is the market for microchips related to the cost of sand?

after all microchips are made out of silicon right?

do you have any more pulp fiction economics to share with us?

-bm

ps.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007

Quote
The market value of the Nxt network should reflect the present value of all future (discounted) cash flows.  

more or less true.  It's not just cash flows because the software also supports(and charges for) asset issuance, trades, and other upcoming features like credit and virtual corporations.


When I say cash flows I mean money, not shares of Nxt.  If the software "supports (and charges for) asset issuance, trades, and other upcoming features like credit and virtual corporations," then the Nxt network should earn money for that service and distribute it to its share holders.  

I suppose the way Nxt earns money is by people buying Nxt (with bitcoin for example) for the purpose of consuming their Nxt tokens to buy some service (rather than forging).  This is what gives you the "E" in the P/E ratio.  So if it costs $1 to issue a "virtual corporation" and that $1 gets used up (distributed across the network to forgers), then the network earned $1.  

I did some quick calculations and at a 10% cost of capital (cryptos are risky), the Nxt network would need to consume about $10,400 / day in fees (for transactions, issuing virtual companies and assets, etc.) to support it's current $38,000,000 market cap.

I'm trying to find out how much the Nxt network forgers earn per day on average, but I can't find the information.  Do you have data on the number of transactions per day and total amount of fees paid to forgers?  
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007

Quote
It is generally accepted that the market value of a commodity and the cost to produce that commodity tend to the same price in a free and competitive market. 

these are not concrete economics ideas, sorry.  This is the gold bug mindset and as the story has been told countless times this ignores the effects of credit, innovation and imho the entire premise of civilization itself.  Is man just a resource extractor?


What does this have to do with gold other than gold being an example of a commodity?  The cost to produce corn tends to the market price of corn, the cost to produce aluminum tends to the market price for aluminum, the cost to produce canola oil tends to the market price for canola oil.  The reason is very simple: if the market price for corn is significantly greater than the cost of production, farmers will plant more corn and less potatoes to earn a greater profit. This action will increase the supply of corn, which will tend to reduce its market price, and eventually bring the profit margin for growing corn in line with other produce that could be produced on the same farm.   
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward).  


how does that work?  the cost to reverse a transaction is related to the cost of HASHING POWER, not the price of bitcoin.


Q: Imagine that gold is trading at $1000 oz and anyone can dig it out of the ground and refine it for $500 / oz after all expenses and labor have been paid.  What would happen?

A: A bunch of people would start mining like crazy and selling for a risk-free $500 profit.  This would initially increase supply (thereby dropping the price) and eventually increase the difficult of mining it (e.g., all the easy $500 gold will get mined quickly).  Eventually, the price of gold would decrease to, say ~$800, and the cost to mine it would increase to, say ~$800.  This is what happens in a competitive free market.  The cost of production (cost of hashing power) approaches the market value of the commodity (BTC inflation rate).  


youre ignoring a very important point.  Is a troy ounce of silver more valuable than a 5000 dollar bill?  simply because it's shiny and heavy?

if we can establish this balance of power without the hashing gear, then is performs the same function and thus has the same value.  Ergo, NXT is valuable.  QED.


It is generally accepted that the market value of a commodity and the cost to produce that commodity tend to the same price in a free and competitive market.  This rule doesn't apply to US dollars because US dollars are not commodities and producing them isn't a competitive free market. 

Nxt tokens, on the other hand, are more like shares in a p2p company than commodities.  The market value of the Nxt network should reflect the present value of all future (discounted) cash flows. 

What do you think the P/E ratio for the Nxt network would be today?

actually that was recently discussed.  Someone calculated the value at something comparable to an American savings account(cant confirm that though).

Quote
It is generally accepted

these are not concrete economics ideas, sorry.  This is the gold bug mindset and as the story has been told countless times this ignores the effects of credit, innovation and imho the entire premise of civilization itself.  Is man just a resource extractor?

Quote
The market value of the Nxt network should reflect the present value of all future (discounted) cash flows. 

more or less true.  It's not just cash flows because the software also supports(and charges for) asset issuance, trades, and other upcoming features like credit and virtual corporations.

-bm
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward).  


how does that work?  the cost to reverse a transaction is related to the cost of HASHING POWER, not the price of bitcoin.


Q: Imagine that gold is trading at $1000 oz and anyone can dig it out of the ground and refine it for $500 / oz after all expenses and labor have been paid.  What would happen?

A: A bunch of people would start mining like crazy and selling for a risk-free $500 profit.  This would initially increase supply (thereby dropping the price) and eventually increase the difficult of mining it (e.g., all the easy $500 gold will get mined quickly).  Eventually, the price of gold would decrease to, say ~$800, and the cost to mine it would increase to, say ~$800.  This is what happens in a competitive free market.  The cost of production (cost of hashing power) approaches the market value of the commodity (BTC inflation rate).  


youre ignoring a very important point.  Is a troy ounce of silver more valuable than a 5000 dollar bill?  simply because it's shiny and heavy?

if we can establish this balance of power without the hashing gear, then is performs the same function and thus has the same value.  Ergo, NXT is valuable.  QED.


It is generally accepted that the market value of a commodity and the cost to produce that commodity tend to the same price in a free and competitive market.  This rule doesn't apply to US dollars because US dollars are not commodities and producing them isn't a competitive free market. 

Nxt tokens, on the other hand, are more like shares in a p2p company than commodities.  The market value of the Nxt network should reflect the present value of all future (discounted) cash flows. 

What do you think the P/E ratio for the Nxt network would be today?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie
The fifth most valuable by crypto by marketcap right now.  Which is something.

most of the cryptocoins are pump and dump schemes.  The market cap is measured by some weak function of sales, but the owners could be holding onto 95%+ of the coin.

NXT is not in the above category.

-bm
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1004
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
The fifth most valuable by crypto by marketcap right now.  Which is something.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward).  


how does that work?  the cost to reverse a transaction is related to the cost of HASHING POWER, not the price of bitcoin.


Q: Imagine that gold is trading at $1000 oz and anyone can dig it out of the ground and refine it for $500 / oz after all expenses and labor have been paid.  What would happen?

A: A bunch of people would start mining like crazy and selling for a risk-free $500 profit.  This would initially increase supply (thereby dropping the price) and eventually increase the difficult of mining it (e.g., all the easy $500 gold will get mined quickly).  Eventually, the price of gold would decrease to, say ~$800, and the cost to mine it would increase to, say ~$800.  This is what happens in a competitive free market.  The cost of production (cost of hashing power) approaches the market value of the commodity (BTC inflation rate).  


youre ignoring a very important point.  Is a troy ounce of silver more valuable than a 5000 dollar bill?  simply because it's shiny and heavy?

if we can establish this balance of power without the hashing gear, then is performs the same function and thus has the same value.  Ergo, NXT is valuable.  QED.

-bm
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward).  


how does that work?  the cost to reverse a transaction is related to the cost of HASHING POWER, not the price of bitcoin.


Q: Imagine that gold is trading at $1000 oz and anyone can dig it out of the ground and refine it for $500 / oz after all expenses and labor have been paid.  What would happen?

A: A bunch of people would start mining like crazy and selling for a risk-free $500 profit.  This would initially increase supply (thereby dropping the price) and eventually increase the difficult of mining it (e.g., all the easy $500 gold will get mined quickly).  Eventually, the price of gold would decrease to, say ~$800, and the cost to mine it would increase to, say ~$800.  This is what happens in a competitive free market.  The cost of production (cost of hashing power) approaches the market value of the commodity (BTC inflation rate).  

sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward). 


how does that work?  the cost to reverse a transaction is related to the cost of HASHING POWER, not the price of bitcoin.

-bm
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
there's also another important issue.

the payoff of an attack becomes exponentially higher.  The chain could be carrying trillions of dollars in securities and such.  Therefore the payoff of reversing transactions are similarly increased.  This creates greater incentives, and in this age where hashing power is brokered and transfered to different hands instantly- an attack starts to appear more immanent.

Remember, if you reverse a colored-coin coinjoin trade for bitcoins, then all it does is gives you back your colored coins and gives the other person back their bitcoins.  With coinjoin, the "trade" is a single transaction, so why would you reverse it after 30 minutes? 

That being said, the bitcoin market cap would most likely be measured in trillions of dollars if "trillions of dollars in securities and such" were tokenized via colored coins.  The higher the price of bitcoin, the more costly it is to attempt to reverse a transaction (at a given coinbase reward). 
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1004
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie
Quote
These new features may seriously threaten the basic functions of Bitcoin.
Disagree.

what is stopping these sorts of initiatives from abusing the network?

-bm
donator
Activity: 1218
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Gerald Davis
this would be a problem for Color Coins and Counterparty and certainly anyone who chose to invest in assets on those networks.
Agreed.

Quote
I predict there will be a tension between those who maintain the core features of Bitcoin(and it's status as the reserve cryptocurrency) and those who are attempting to overlay new features.
Agreed. 

Quote
These new features may seriously threaten the basic functions of Bitcoin.
Disagree.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie
the payoff of an attack becomes exponentially higher.  The chain could be carrying trillions of dollars in securities and such.  Therefore the payoff of reversing transactions are similarly increased.  This creates greater incentives, and in this age where hashing power is brokered and transferred to different hands instantly- an attack starts to appear more immanent.

If NXT provides better security for assets then assets will be transacted on that network.   So what is the problem again?

problem for who?

this would be a problem for Color Coins and Counterparty and certainly anyone who chose to invest in assets on those networks.

I predict there will be a tension between those who maintain the core features of Bitcoin(and it's status as the reserve cryptocurrency) and those who are attempting to overlay new features.  These new features may seriously threaten the basic functions of Bitcoin.

-bm
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
the payoff of an attack becomes exponentially higher.  The chain could be carrying trillions of dollars in securities and such.  Therefore the payoff of reversing transactions are similarly increased.  This creates greater incentives, and in this age where hashing power is brokered and transferred to different hands instantly- an attack starts to appear more immanent.

If NXT provides better security for assets then assets will be transacted on that network.   So what is the problem again?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie
to further back up my point, here are some trading stats from the NYSE.

http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/835_volume_of_trading_on_new_york.html

so in 1999, we had daily highs of several billion trades a day.  Since 2000 this has increased considerably.

now keep in mind that under the current schedule for ie. Color Coins, *creating* a new ticker costs a few cents.  Thus it's reasonable to expect even more than 1 billion transactions a day.  I think you're ignoring the problem because you would rather attention not be going to alternatives like NXT that do have the possibility of supporting this sort of volume ...

I am not ignoring the "problem".  Volume on NYSE is in the billions of shares because fees are insanely low, less than $0.00004 USD (88 satoshis) per share.   Any assets traded on the blockchain would need to compete with bitcoin transactions and fees will probably not be that low.  If NXT is more economical for colored coins then the assets will move there so I don't see a problem either way.


there's also another important issue.

the payoff of an attack becomes exponentially higher.  The chain could be carrying trillions of dollars in securities and such.  Therefore the payoff of reversing transactions are similarly increased.  This creates greater incentives, and in this age where hashing power is brokered and transfered to different hands instantly- an attack starts to appear more immanent.

if the chain were suddenly thought to be inviable, what would happen to the holders of these assets?  it would be an utter disaster.

this problem doesn't exist in NXT because the cost of an attack scales perfectly in ratio to the cost of NXT, whereas in Bitcoin it scales to the cost of hashing power.

-bm
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
to further back up my point, here are some trading stats from the NYSE.

http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/835_volume_of_trading_on_new_york.html

so in 1999, we had daily highs of several billion trades a day.  Since 2000 this has increased considerably.

now keep in mind that under the current schedule for ie. Color Coins, *creating* a new ticker costs a few cents.  Thus it's reasonable to expect even more than 1 billion transactions a day.  I think you're ignoring the problem because you would rather attention not be going to alternatives like NXT that do have the possibility of supporting this sort of volume ...

I am not ignoring the "problem".  Volume on NYSE is in the billions of shares because fees are insanely low, less than $0.00004 USD net (88 satoshis) per share traded.   Any assets traded on the blockchain would need to compete with bitcoin transactions and fees will probably be at least a magnitude higher.   If NXT is more economical for colored coins then the assets will move there so I don't see a problem either way. 

There is no such thing as "too many transactions" what types of transactions are viable will change over time depends on the cost and limits imposed by the network.  For example the US fedwire (bank wire) network processed 134,244,177 transactions last year.  That works out to about 4 tps.

sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 257
bluemeanie
to further back up my point, here are some trading stats from the NYSE.

http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/835_volume_of_trading_on_new_york.html

so in 1999, we had daily highs of several billion trades a day.  Since 2000 this has increased considerably.

now keep in mind that under the current schedule for ie. Color Coins, *creating* a new ticker costs a few cents.  Thus it's reasonable to expect even more than 1 billion transactions a day.  I think you're ignoring the problem because you would rather attention not be going to alternatives like NXT that do have the possibility of supporting this sort of volume.  Volume, network character, and processing seem to be completely ignored by Ethereum altogether.

-bm
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