The "black swan" event | Bitcointalksearch.org

ShakyhandsBTCer

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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin

Quote from: howardb on June 11, 2014, 07:40:06 AM

Quote from: spazzdla on June 11, 2014, 07:33:48 AM

Quote from: percocet on June 11, 2014, 06:24:20 AM

I believe the black swan is drawing near. My bet is that it will be the failure of a major bank (Deutsche Bank maybe) or some sort of gigantic default on a loan that will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

It could also be a major announcement from Russia or China that they are no longer going to conduct any business in US dollars.

I am also feeling China and Russia make a new joint currency backed by gold, instantly sinking the dollar, at that point.. .. boom.

China have ceased buying US treasuries, but they still hold waaay to much to risk a serious USD devaluation.
And I really don't know why people keep using the word "Russia" as if it has any economic significance! Russia's GDP was less that Italy last time I looked!

If the conflict in Russia/Ukraine were to escalate further then there could be economic issues.

Erdogan

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Somebody running away from risk, somewhere. It could be anything, probably some kind of trade you don't even know exist.

howardb

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Quote from: spazzdla on June 11, 2014, 07:33:48 AM

Quote from: percocet on June 11, 2014, 06:24:20 AM

I believe the black swan is drawing near. My bet is that it will be the failure of a major bank (Deutsche Bank maybe) or some sort of gigantic default on a loan that will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

It could also be a major announcement from Russia or China that they are no longer going to conduct any business in US dollars.

I am also feeling China and Russia make a new joint currency backed by gold, instantly sinking the dollar, at that point.. .. boom.

China have ceased buying US treasuries, but they still hold waaay to much to risk a serious USD devaluation.
And I really don't know why people keep using the word "Russia" as if it has any economic significance! Russia's GDP was less that Italy last time I looked!

howardb

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Quote from: cr1776 on June 09, 2014, 05:54:02 PM

Bitcoin (and/or crypto-currencies in general) is the black swan for some institutions.

+1
Yeah I thought the question was being asked the wrong way round, seems intuitive to me that BTC is the black swan to Fiats
and current economic cycle.

okthen

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Quote from: spazzdla on June 11, 2014, 07:33:48 AM

Quote from: percocet on June 11, 2014, 06:24:20 AM

I believe the black swan is drawing near. My bet is that it will be the failure of a major bank (Deutsche Bank maybe) or some sort of gigantic default on a loan that will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

It could also be a major announcement from Russia or China that they are no longer going to conduct any business in US dollars.

I am also feeling China and Russia make a new joint currency backed by gold, instantly sinking the dollar, at that point.. .. boom.

I think not even the Russian are that dumb.
They might be anti-America, but they want to be western.

spazzdla

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Quote from: percocet on June 11, 2014, 06:24:20 AM

I believe the black swan is drawing near. My bet is that it will be the failure of a major bank (Deutsche Bank maybe) or some sort of gigantic default on a loan that will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

It could also be a major announcement from Russia or China that they are no longer going to conduct any business in US dollars.

I am also feeling China and Russia make a new joint currency backed by gold, instantly sinking the dollar, at that point.. .. boom.

percocet

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I believe the black swan is drawing near. My bet is that it will be the failure of a major bank (Deutsche Bank maybe) or some sort of gigantic default on a loan that will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

It could also be a major announcement from Russia or China that they are no longer going to conduct any business in US dollars.

AZwarel

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Merit: 280

Quote from: Pente on June 09, 2014, 10:54:04 PM

Quote from: okthen on June 09, 2014, 05:59:50 PM

Quote from: cr1776 on June 09, 2014, 05:54:02 PM

Bitcoin (and/or crypto-currencies in general) is the black swan for some institutions.

Still on a very small scale.
And not in Russia/China in any case.

Give it time. I am betting on a world wide fiat currency disaster/collapse/severe inflation event before 2020.

This event was inevitable, but cryptocurrencies are going to hasten this moment. Luckily, they will also allow the world to survive.

It was already proposed, the idea of decentralized crypto currency in the 90's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYD17h6hlCs
Black swan theory predicts the unknown knowns.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

xavier

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Give it 2 years until we have a major financial collapse

The "global economy" - all sources of current economic growth - are completely unsustainable. The main source of this is china's 30-year manipulation of the foreign exchange market.

We are in the ending stages now.

Still , my feeling is bitcoin *MAY* go down more before it goes up. However, that's not a very strong feeling. I wouldnt want to be out of the rally that started in April/May. So, keep some cash on hand but also be in the market.

Bernard Lerring

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If the global economy changed and if Bitcoin took its place would anything change? Would Bitcoin be largely owned by an elite, with the average person scrabbling about for less than a Satoshi?

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Pente

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Quote from: okthen on June 09, 2014, 05:59:50 PM

Quote from: cr1776 on June 09, 2014, 05:54:02 PM

Bitcoin (and/or crypto-currencies in general) is the black swan for some institutions.

Still on a very small scale.
And not in Russia/China in any case.

Give it time. I am betting on a world wide fiat currency disaster/collapse/severe inflation event before 2020.

This event was inevitable, but cryptocurrencies are going to hasten this moment. Luckily, they will also allow the world to survive.

okthen

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: cr1776 on June 09, 2014, 05:54:02 PM

Bitcoin (and/or crypto-currencies in general) is the black swan for some institutions.

Still on a very small scale.
And not in Russia/China in any case.

cr1776

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Bitcoin (and/or crypto-currencies in general) is the black swan for some institutions.

spazzdla

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Quote from: Raystonn on June 09, 2014, 11:15:32 AM

Quote from: spazzdla on June 09, 2014, 11:00:03 AM

That will demo the markets and bring the house of cards tumbling down.

Any ideas on what it will be?

Wondering what the tops are planning to be the black swan, I am thinking something to do with China and Russia backing their $ with gold and actually showing the world what they have. Then calling out Merica on the gold they "have".

It sounds like you are discussing a black swan event throughout the major financial markets, and not in Bitcoin. Am I right?

Yes, this was/is about the financial markets.

zimmah

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The "Earasian Union" Russia is starting to form might pose a serious threat to the dollar and to the fiat system as a whole (or at least to the current fiats, as altyr will also be fiat).

Quote from: cbeast on June 09, 2014, 11:35:14 AM

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on June 09, 2014, 11:07:22 AM

Yes, a gold backed juan would be great. Hell ill even take russian currency if its backed by liters of oil or gas stored underground over BTC anyday.

Too easy to counterfeit or fractional reserve.

in history it always was like this:

1) they use gold (and silver maybe) as payment
2) they replace gold either with copper/gold mixtures or with paper that represents gold 'gold-backed' system
3) inflation happens, there's not enough gold to cover all the costs (this era is marked by spending money like water and living on credit etc.)
4) end of gold standard, collapse of society (era marked by chaos and poverty and often the fall of an empire)
5) new society/return to gold standard.

except this time we have an alternative -> turn to decentralized crypto.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on June 09, 2014, 11:07:22 AM

Yes, a gold backed juan would be great. Hell ill even take russian currency if its backed by liters of oil or gas stored underground over BTC anyday.

Too easy to counterfeit or fractional reserve.

E-valuta

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Quote from: RandomPedestrianN9 on June 09, 2014, 11:07:22 AM

Yes, a gold backed juan would be great. Hell ill even take russian currency if its backed by liters of oil or gas stored underground over BTC anyday.

Over USD, not BTC, I assume?

The black swan.. hmm.. most facts about China and Russia are not unknown at all. To western Public, perhaps, but it is no Secret that there is a major currency and trade war going on and has for the last 10 years. The winner will without a doubt be China, Russia and most countries of the world outside USA and EU.

To Western uneducated audience then yes, China's currency is the black swan.

For western educated economics and politicans - Bitcoin.

Raystonn

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Quote from: spazzdla on June 09, 2014, 11:00:03 AM

That will demo the markets and bring the house of cards tumbling down.

Any ideas on what it will be?

Wondering what the tops are planning to be the black swan, I am thinking something to do with China and Russia backing their $ with gold and actually showing the world what they have. Then calling out Merica on the gold they "have".

It sounds like you are discussing a black swan event throughout the major financial markets, and not in Bitcoin. Am I right?

pinksheep

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and what will happen BTC if this were to occur?

RandomPedestrianN9

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Yes, a gold backed juan would be great. Hell ill even take russian currency if its backed by liters of oil or gas stored underground over BTC anyday.

Topic: The "black swan" event (Read 2284 times)